Saturday, June 13, 2026

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (PWR) and (HON).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @Vivek4real_
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @Warclandestine
  • @RenzTom
  • @nicksortor
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @DC_Draino
  • @NoLimitGains
  • The most important SpaceX detail nobody is talking about: the lockup is staggered. There is no single 180-day cliff. Insiders get to sell in tiers, starting MUCH earlier than a standard IPO. Here’s exactly when insiders can start selling:
  • @RepLuna
  • @mazemoore
  • @BullTheoryio
  • SpaceX created over 4,400 millionaires today, and many of them are regular working people. They are not executives or founders, they are welders, technicians, machinists, and launch crew, the people who showed up every day and built the rockets with their hands. Around 400 of them are sitting on stakes worth over $100 million each. For context, Google's IPO created roughly 1,000 millionaires. Facebook's created around the same. SpaceX is doing more than four times both of them in a single day. Juan Hernandez is one of them. (pic)
  • @CartmanReacts
  • @JackPosobiec
  • Today, I’m releasing never before seen intelligence revealing new evidence of past US government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries, including Ukraine. In support of President Trump‘s Executive Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI will continue working with partners across the Administration to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what “research” is being conducted. -@DNIGabbard. This is why they came after Tulsi so hard. (video)
  • @allenanalysis
  • @ZaStocks
  • @TonySeruga
  • @Megatron_ron
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @bernsteind
  • @Kalshi
  • @BRICSinfo
  • @P_McCulloughMD
  • @NicHulscher
  • @ReturnOfKappy
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, June 12, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 7,423.0 +.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 51,195.9 +.8%
  • NASDAQ 25,846.7 +.7%
  • Russell 2000 2,948.1 +4.1%
  • NYSE FANG+ 16,918.7 -.5%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 312.4 +2.5%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.89 +.1%
  • Wilshire 5000 73,679.7 +.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,890.4 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,378.5 +2.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 953.1 +2.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 256.5 -.2%
  • NYSE Technology 9,750.9 +4.9%
  • Transports 22,618.2 +3.1%
  • Utilities 1,115.2 +.4%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 116.7 -1.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 68.2 +6.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 261.5 -.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 134.3 -.01%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 617,173 -.2%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.6 +95.9%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 113 -281
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.8 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 155,874 -3.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,025,180 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -17.7%
  • OEX Put/Call .26 -40.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.43 +90.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.2 +.1%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -26.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -27.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -15.1%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.27 +5.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 10.7 -12.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.38 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.86 -3.1%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,800.9 -2.9%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  79.3 -7.5
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.873 Trillion -.3%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$9.571 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 30.4 -16.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 368.9 -3.7%
  • Crude Oil 84.5/bbl. -6.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 304.5 -.02%
  • Natural Gas 3.11 -3.0%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 75.8 USD/Megawatt +1.9% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.52 euros/megawatt-hour -5.0%
  • Heating Oil 339.91 -5.9% 
  • Newcastle Coal 143.0 (1,000/metric ton) -2.7%
  • Gold 4,214.1 -2.4%
  • Silver 67.90 +.4%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 182.7 +.12%
  • Copper 647.8 +3.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 402.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.60 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 24,600.0 USD/metric tonne -6.3%
  • Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.75(price per million tokens) -10.6% 
  • inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 62.99 +1.6%  
  • CME Lumber 624.5 +2.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,335.4 -.7%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
  • US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 386.0 USD/Short Ton -14.9% 
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% +.3 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.4 -.3 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.90 -9.9%
  • Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 198.3 -6.2% 
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 64.0 -20.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 81.0% -9.0 percentage points
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 220.4 -38.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.6
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.38 +1.69:  Growth Rate +23.9% +.6 percentage point, P/E 20.3 -.6
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 911.07 +14.23: Growth Rate +75.7% +2.8 percentage points, P/E 18.7 -1.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 -6.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.9 +7.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.60 +6.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 1.4%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 98.6%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17
  • US Dollar Index 99.73 -.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,858.7 -.05%
  • Bitcoin/USD 63,646.2 +3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 211.8 +.5%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.49 -.43%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 40.0 +2.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.48% -6.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.81% -9.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.678 Trillion +.2%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.035 Billion -4.6%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 -.9%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.9 +1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 73.0 -3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.3 -4.1%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.8 -1.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 125.5 +.8%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.0 -11.9%
  • Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.9 -6.8%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.5 -2.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.21 +.33%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.02 -.4%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.3% -30.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% -10.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% +30.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.30% -3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.05% -13.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -36.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -5.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 11.75 +.25 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 -.25
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.56 -3.6% 
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.54 +.9%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 152.0 -.7%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 441.0 +1.2% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 228.0 -21.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.9 -2.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 144.6 -4.8%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 110.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 552.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,413.1B +.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 219,000 +2.0%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.3 +6.9%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.57% -3.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 280,100 +10.8%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +9.1% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +8.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $268.8M -1.3%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.11/gallon -.11/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,729.0 -8.5%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,549.3/40 ft Box +3.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,480.1 +4.9%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 210.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 161.4 +3.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 293,728 +11.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,809,243 +19.1% 
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.6 -3.0 points
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% unch.
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +4.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Semis +10.1%
  • AI/Innovation +8.1%
  • Airlines +7.2%
  • Retail +6.4%
  • Gambling +5.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Coal -2.2%
  • Internet -2.7%
  • Drone Tech -3.8%
  • Computer Services -4.5%
  • Software -5.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (58)
  • TBN, ELVN, ALMS, ALOY, CIFR, ARM, WBI, AKTS, ALB, ZBIO, ROKU, AIP, SVM, DNTH, ASYS, TENX, AYA, CRWV, RMIX, MOS, ODD, VECO, INTC, ERO, INTC, IREN, ONTO, NGL, WDS, FWRD, NOK, FA, CDNL, SCI, MIAX, BIRK, PRE, CMCO, KRUS, MATW, IESC, NESR, AEM, CBRL, ATEX, ACMR, AEO, WTS, BRUN, HTFL, CMG, DB and FRO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)
  • DRUG, PTC, UNF, ADSK, GEL, SPXC, MH, SMCI, TRLV, RKLB, ADBE, SHAZ, RDW, NAVN, LUNR, SATS, ASTS, VOYG, FLY and DXYZ
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, SpaceX IPO, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,310 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -55 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (PLAY)/.60
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 14.3 versus 19.6 in May. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  • Manufacturing Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in April.
  • Capacity Utilization for May is estimated to rise to 76.2% versus 76.1% in April. 
  • 10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for June is estimated to fall to 36.0 versus 37.0 in May. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Jefferies Power Conference, (DDOG) annual meeting, (DOCN) annual meeting, (CENX) annual meeting, (HUBS) annual meeting and the Truist Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @TheTranscript
  • RH CEO: "Nearly 40 years ago, standing at the Brandenburg Gate, a former American president looked out at a divided world and issued a defiant, historic decree: 'Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.' Today, we look at the luxury home industry and ask the same."
    $RH: +0.4% AH.
  • Adobe CEO: "Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion in Q2 reflecting strong AI-driven demand across our customer groups and we are raising our full-year fiscal 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS targets on the strength of that performance".
    $ADBE: -6% AH. 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -2.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
  • Crude Oil 86.76/bbl. -1.1% 
  • Gold 4,212.20 USD/t oz. +2.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 +.08%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.11 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 120.9 +.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82% -7.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.