Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.9 -2.0
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 48.5% of Issues Advancing, 49.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .85 -6.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$94.8M
  
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
• 58.3% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.9 +1.8

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 6.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 3.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 29.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15th 47.0% -6.0 percentage points  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.6 +.5%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 64.0 +10.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% +2.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 467.75 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.0 -.4%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 150.7 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -6.7%
• Vix 16.8 -1.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -1.1%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Ships laden with Saudi oil u-turned and sailed towards the Suez Canal after the Houthi rebel group warned shipowners against calling at Saudi Arabia’s ports. 
• A group of banks wrapped up a loan offering backing SoftBanks $5.4 billion robotics bet after increasing the size of the US dollar tranche.
• Senators in both parties are questioning a plan by President Donald Trump’s media company to sell real-time access to Truth Social posts to Wall Street firms.
• The Trump administration said Tuesday it has launched civil rights investigations into alleged racial discrimination in admissions at five medical schools, including at Dartmouth College.
• OpenAI said its artificial intelligence models were used to compromise the internal systems of startup Hugging Face, offering an early glimpse of how AI systems could fuel new cybersecurity threats.
• Advanced nuclear reactor suppliers Oklo and X-Energy are joining technology giants in a Trump administration-led program to speed the development of new power plants for AI data centers, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News.
• The US plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported generic drugs beginning in 2028, Trump says.
• Trump is poised to impose fresh levies on products from dozens of economies by Friday, according to people familiar with the matter.      
• A frustrated Trump administration wants major changes to the operator of America’s largest power grid — perhaps even breaking it apart — as federal regulators meet this week to discuss the organization’s fate.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.  

• @ZeroHedge

• DOJ Probing Harvard Over Financial Aid Programs Linked To China-Based Sources.
• Ukraine's Army Chief Latest To Fall Victim To Zelensky's Risky Reshuffle.        
• Think it's just about tokens? Think again: the next AI crisis is real compute vs "bragawatts". "We certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but we have spent a lot of time in the data center industry and think we’re pretty good at sniffing out the real builds from the “bragawatts”. We estimate 1/3 of the deals in the pipeline tracker will actually be completed —135 GW in North America " - Bernstein.
• "Safeguard Our Homeland": FCC Moves To Ban Foreign Military-Grade Drone Imports.
• Citadel Securities Reflects On "A More Fragile World".
• This Sex Robot Is Going To 'Teach' Your Kids In Schools.
• Tokyo Plummets, Tel Aviv Soars: The Global Cost-of-Living Map Has Been Redrawn.
• Momentum Melts Up For Best Day On Record; Bonds Dumped As Everything Else Pumped.        

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: AI race, potential tariffs and Middle East conflict continue to heat up. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Japan exports and imports grow at fastest pace since November 2022, beating estimates. 
• Goldman Sachs has created a new platform to expand its offerings for wealthy clients and family offices who increasingly want direct stakes in fast-growing private companies, CNBC has learned. The new group, called the alternative investments platform, combines Goldman’s existing alternatives business with two newly established teams, according to a memo seen first by CNBC.
• Stock futures are little changed as investors gear up for more earnings: Live updates.  
• Super Micro surges on new order and margin disclosure after SpaceX announcement.
• The sell-off in Korean stocks may soon subside. That could be good news for U.S. markets. 

• @MarioNawful

• The aftermath of Iranian missile strikes on a U.S. military facility in the Middle East, from U.S. soldiers themselves; here's what one of them said: "From what I'm hearing we're getting projected impact data but the missiles are changing trajectory multiple times in flight so the projected impact warnings are no good. Targeting data is obviously getting fed to Iran from China or Russia because where they are impacting/what they are targeting is insanely precise."
• Laura Ingraham drops a stark warning to Trump & Republicans: “The clock is ticking.” She says the war is becoming a major political liability, already making GOP lawmakers nervous and unpopular with voters. “Republicans cannot let this become an endless distraction… especially if they want to win in November.” Even Ingraham is sounding the alarm. Will Trump listen before it’s too late? (video)
• Anyone who thinks a ground invasion of Iran is a serious possibility needs to watch this... Matt Bracken is a former Navy SEAL and spec ops veteran, and he just delivered one of the most sobering comparisons I've heard yet: Kharg Island is the size of Iwo Jima, where the U.S. pounded the island with battleships for WEEKS before landing 70,000 Marines... and still lost 7,000 lives and had 19,000 wounded in a single month. Qeshm Island is bigger than Okinawa, which took 3 months and cost 12,000 American lives. Iran has had decades to tunnel these islands, study U.S. tactics, and prepare for precisely this scenario, and unlike Japan in WWII, they have precision missiles that can reach every inch of the Persian Gulf. "If we went into Iran, I think we will lose everybody we send in, the more we send in, the more we lose, and the Iranians have been very open about saying, come on in, we welcome you." Matt ended by saying rationality is out the window, and that this started with a February 28th sneak attack, so nothing should be considered off the table. (video)

• @GenXGirl1994

• House Recorded Vote to Bring NDAA to the Floor for Vote Tomorrow narrowly passes. YES: 214 (213-R) (1-I). NO: 211 (210-D) (1-Massie). NOW WE NEED TO FLOOD THE PHONE LINES! Tell Your House Rep (especially the Republicans) to VOTE NOT to the NDAA until they remove Section 219!

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Opposition within the House GOP is MOUNTING to block amnesty legislation for illegal alien farm workers. Dozens of House Republicans co-sponsored this bill, but now MULTIPLE members have said it clearly: NO AMNESTY! REP. GREG STEUBE (R-FL): "Amnesty isn't 'America First.' Rewarding illegal immigration guarantees more of it. It hands employers cheap labor while they cut corners in industries that depend on safe working conditions. Deport ALL illegal aliens. Secure the border." REP. ANDY OGLES (R-TN): "I will NEVER vote for a mass amnesty package. Not now and not EVER." LFG. Keep fighting!

• @RealHickory

• Mitch McConnell has not been seen in public in 33 days, fake photos don't count. They' running out the August 4th clock to announce his passing, so they don't have to hold a special election. Where's ANYONE in the Senate not demanding proof of life?

• @FirstSquawk

• NVIDIA EXPANDS AI HARDWARE STRATEGY BEYOND GPUS BY SHIPPING NEW VERA DATA CENTRE CPU, SETTING UP DIRECT COMPETITION WITH INTEL AND AMD IN AI SERVER MARKET; VERA CPUS DELIVERED IN JUNE TO CUSTOMERS INCLUDING OPENAI, ANTHROPIC AND SPACEX - SOURCES.

• @OcrazioCornPop

• DEPORTATION UPDATE: According to Fox News reporting, ICE has only DEPORTED 356,389 illegal aliens in 2026. Former Border Patrol Commander @GregoryKBovino estimates there are CURRENTLY 107 MILLION illegal aliens inside the U.S. border. IS THIS WHAT YOU VOTED FOR IN 2024?

• @Timcast

• Trump did everything to get Massie removed. He is doing nothing about Thune. I have been personally told the admin is mad at me for saying this over and over.

• @Polymarket

• BREAKING: New Jersey Governor reveals a software error registered roughly 6,600 noncitizens to vote.

• @ArkansasAngie

• Here are the Republicans who support Amnesty for illegal aliens. 

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• "The engineer who actually built the algorithm stealing the election for Biden looked at me like I was an idiot and asked, "Do you think we stole the election here in the blue counties? We're smarter than that. No, we SHAVED OFF VOTES IN THE RED COUNTIES in the countryside where Trump was strong, and we left the blue counties untouched. We shaved off 10 percent in Douglas County (Colorado) and 10% in Mesa County (Colorado) and other red counties until Biden's count was over 50 percent statewide." - Stolen Elections by @RalphPezzullo with Martin Rodil & Gary Bernsten.

• @AmericaOnlyBro

• WHO IS RICK CUTLER? The first time you ever saw this guy was probably when he was smiling over Charlie Kirks dying body at the UVU campus that fateful day. You may have thought to yourself he was one of the regular security guards that worked for TPUSA.... He wasn't. When you look into the details of Rick Cutler, it gets very dark. You quickly discover that he has been working for "anti-human trafficking" NGO's in Guatemala and as a contracted security guard on the side. You then discover that somehow, HE WAS BROUGHT ON BY TPUSA FOR THAT ONE EVENT. The most suspicious figure in Charlies orbit the day he was killed was only there for that one day. To me, this guy just SCREAMS paid assassin.

• @Scitechera

• This is getting unreal. "A huge humanoid robotics wave is about to arrive". Chinese robotics company AheadForm just unveiled one of the world's most lifelike humanoid robots at WAIC 2026 in Shanghai. This AI-powered humanoid can hold natural conversations, maintain eye contact, blink, display realistic facial expressions and synchronize its speech with lifelike head and facial movements. (video)

• @BreannaMorello

• Last August, President Donald Trump said he was honored to welcome 600,000 Chinese nationals into our universities via student visa program. Last week, the President claimed the Chinese helped rig the 2020 election. I’ve repeatedly asked the White House and State Department if they intended to revoke these visas, but they did not provide comment. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.75 -.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -.5 basis point..
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Crude Oil 85.61/bbl. +1.3% 
• Gold 4,123.70 USD/t oz. +1.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.33 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.55 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 127.2 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.62% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.90% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.7 +.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.10 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.2 -.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 143.9 -.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 65.8 +3.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.3 -1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.6 -1.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.5 +6.6

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.3 -2.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(64 of 500 reporting) +47.4% -4.9 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.21 +.37:  Growth Rate +27.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.69% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +510.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 909.01 +.36: Growth Rate +75.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 unch.
• US Yield Curve 36.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.3 +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 59.83 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% +.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.63% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.17 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.3% (+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 47.1%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,030 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -155 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +54 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +141 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (T)/.59
• (BMI)/1.01
• (CALM)/.08
• (CME)/2.91
• (GEV)/3.17
• (MCO)/4.26
• (NTRS)/2.71
• (PM)/2.03
• (PHM)/2.36
• (SF)/1.33
• (TEL)/2.84
• (TDY)/5.79 
• (MRTN)/.08
• (LUV)/.51 

After the Close: 

• (GOOG)/2.88
• (AVB)/2.81
• (CSX)/.52
• (EQR)/1.01
• (GGG)/.81
• (IBM)/2.87
• (KALU)/2.66
• (KMI)/.32
• (KNX)/.51
• (LVS)/.76
• (MEDP)/3.98
• (OII)/.46
• (RJF)/2.93
• (RS)/5.47
• (NOW)/.86
• (SLG)/1.21
• (TSLA)/.53
• (TXN)/1.94
• (WEX)/5.07
• (WH)/1.41 

Economic Releases 

 10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -879,670 barrels versus a -1,692,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,383,330 barrels versus a -1,533,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +312,170 barrels versus a +4,556,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.29% versus a +.4% gain prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (MCK) annual meeting, (BAH) annual meeting and the (STZ) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +2.9
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 54.8% of Issues Advancing, 43.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .82 -13.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$70.8M
  
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
• 57.8% (+.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.1 -1.8

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 6.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 3.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15th 53.0% -1.0 percentage point  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.2 +2.8%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 54.0 -11.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 88.0% -3.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 462.75 -9.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.1 +1.0%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.4 +2.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 41.0 (FEAR) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 -33.0%
• Vix 17.1 -8.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +2.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%. 
• Crude Oil 83.0/bbl. -.3% 
• Gold 4,034.20 USD/t oz. +.45%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.35 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.55 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.9 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.59% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.90% +3.0 basis points 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.50%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.37%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.