Saturday, November 23, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (GOOG), (DKS), (RL), (TPR), (ANF) and (JWN).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • Some of the most successful people in the United States are from minority groups. America is the land of opportunity. True. (table)
  • @SteveLovesAmmo
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WarClandestine
  • @jackunheard
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @MJTurthUltra
  • @MZHemingway
  • @GardensR4Health
  • @jsblokland
  • Since #Trump won the elections, the #euro has been in free fall. It's the worst (major) currency this month. The reason? The Eurozone literally has nothing to defend itself! - Massively overregulated - The euro is structurally flawed - The manufacturing sector is getting crushed by #China - Issues surrounding #energy supply and costs remain large - A total lack of #innovation - A total lack of #competitiveness (regulation makes labor extremely expensive - No Technology powerhouses (apart from ASML) - Central bank #policies aimed at the weakest links (France, Italy) - Mass #immigration - Polarizing, incompetent politicians (including Ursula) not voted by the people. (table)
  • @nicksortor
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @GetOnTap
  • @VigilantFox
  • @austerrewyatt1
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @mattgaetz
  • @Breaking911
  • @RealHickory
  • @RobertBeadles 
  • Guess what? You don’t have to guess anymore. Sam Brown won Nevada! Just in Washoe County alone, someone flipped a minimum of 21,649 votes from Brown to Rosen! This means that in JUST Washoe County, without even looking at the votes stolen from Brown in the other counties, Brown’s total votes come to 698,695, while Rosen’s are 679,456! Remember, this is the MINIMUM number of votes stolen from Brown, and he is still the decisive winner! $80,000 to prove us wrong! This means we have an illegitimate Senator representing We the People—one that We the People did not elect!
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, November 22, 2024

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Bank/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.0 -31.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.4 +2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.70 +.41:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 381.48 +1.44: Growth Rate +34.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .98 -3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 3.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.9% -.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 51.6%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.8%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +271 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Retail +2.7% 2) Alt Energy +2.6% 3) Regional Banks +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • REPL, ESTC, CLSK, UGI, STNE, RDW, MSTR, LB, GAP, SMCI, AESI, CNXC, LUNR, GPCR, PTGX, AAOI, VIST, KURA, M, MARA, YPF, ATKR, HALO, SEI, DDOG, SLM, LEU, DAVE, QDEL, AI, MRNA, BKSY, ROK, MDB, ASGN, PBR, MNDY, JBGS, NNE, ROIV, TPR, UTI, RKLB, MAGN, PBR/A, SPIR, ESPW, ABBV, TGT, ZI, ACM and LNTH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FEZ 2) ESTC 3) XLI 4) APA 5) GAP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) REPL 2) UGI 3) NGVC 4) ESTC 5) GAP
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) SOXX 3) MSTY 4) XLI 5) IGV
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BBWI)/.47
  • (DSX)/-.01
After the Close: 
  • (A)/1.41
  • (CENT)/-.22
  • (LESL)/.11
  • (SMTC)/.23
  • (ZM)/1.31
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Oct.

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to -1.8 versus -3.0 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 2Y T-Note auction, Needham Consumer Tech/Ecommerce conference and the (PAR) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.1 +1.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.7 -2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.8 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.7 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(473 of 500 reporting) +8.2% +1.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.29 +.10:  Growth Rate +12.9% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 22.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% +7.6 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.04 +.46: Growth Rate +33.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.0%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long