Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CNA)/1.23
• (HAIN)/.12
• (INCY)/1.50
• (MCD)/2.85
• (ON)/.97
• (ROK)/1.58
• (TSEM)/.53
  

After the Close: 

• (ALAB)/.26
• (CXW)/.34
• (LSCC)/.19
• (VRTX)/4.01
• (VNO)/.49
  

Economic Releases

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for Jan., Mich. Inflation Expectations YoY for Jan., BofA Financial Services Conference, Stifel Transport/Logistics Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, BTIG MedTech/Digital Health/Life Science/Diagnostic Tools Conference and the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk  

• TREASURY OFFICIAL ALLOWED FRAUDULENT PAYMENTS WORTH BILLIONS TO CONTINUE—TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REMOVES HIM. David Lebryk, a career Treasury Department official, was pushed out by the Trump administration. Lebryk oversaw over $1 billion in federal payments but allowed fraudulent transactions to proceed hundreds, if not thousands, of times—a blatant violation of the law. This is exactly the problem with the federal government: unelected bureaucrats making policy decisions against the will of the elected president. Billions of taxpayer dollars to known FRAUDULENT entities are STILL being APPROVED by Treasury. This needs to STOP NOW!
• No, really: if USAID was really saving lives, how come we haven’t seen impassioned speeches this week from 40-50 Prime Ministers & Presidents around the world that tens of thousands of their citizens are going to die? Why are they all so silent — and why do many seem relieved? Indeed.
• Amazing. (pic)

• @BasedMikeLee

• USAID: taking money from poor Americans to give to rich Marxists to plot in Davos, Switzerland—about how to take more money from poor Americans. Trust people. Be skeptical of government.

• @ChuckCallesto

• BREAKING NOW: Federal Judge LIMITS DOGE access to "sensitive" Treasury Department payment system records... WHAT ARE THEY HIDING? This is what panic from Democrat crooks and thieves looks like.

• @nicksortor  

• #BREAKING: Following President Trump’s Executive Order, the NCAA has officially BANNED men from women’s sports. MASSIVE WIN FOR GIRLS AND WOMEN ACROSS THE COUNTRY!

• @bennyjohnson

• This is the biggest scandal in news media history: No employee at Politico got paid yesterday. First time ever the company missed a pay period. This is a crisis. Now we learn Politico — a “news company” — which spent the last 10 years trying to destroy the MAGA Movement was being massively funded by USAID. Trump & Elon deleted their funding. Now Politico will go out of business. The corruption is endless. Good riddance. (pic)
  

• @BRICSInfo
  

• JUST IN:  Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán issues statement on USAID corruption. "I think the world owes a debt of gratitude to President Trump for uncovering and putting an end to this dark conspiracy."

• @WallStreetApes

• Another Democrat lie exposed. “Illegal aliens in this country did not pay $95 billion in taxes, not even Federal and State combined”. - Federal expenditures was $66 billion. - Illegal aliens in this country only paid $16 billion. - They netted $50 billion in federal benefits. State and local expenditures: - They cost the taxpayers $115 billion. - They only paid in $15 billion to state and local tax. “So they are costing, the national total expenditure is $182 billion, and they're only paying into the system $31 billion. They cost our country $150.7 billion in 2023 alone. (video)
  

• @catturd2
  

• BREAKING: Did you know that Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who defends USAID funding, is also a Director at the International Republican Institute? This organization received $130.7M from USAID! All the snakes are being exposed. 
• We paid Angelina Jolie 20 million for a photo op with Zelensky, Ben Stiller got 4 million. Your blood should be boiling.

• @MdBreathe

• 12 year old denied heart transplant for refusing mRNA shot…. And she’s related to
  @JDVance. (video)
  

• @Liz_Churchill10

• It started when Obama repealed the Smith Munct Act which legalized Propaganda. Reuters was paid $9M to implement Illegal ‘Social Engineering and Psychological Operations’ AGAINST the American Citizen with their own Tax Dollars. (video)

• @TheChiefNerd
  

• Autism spectrum disorder rates by country What do you notice? (map)
  

• @MarioNawful

• NYT LOSES MILLIONS IN GOVT FUNDING AFTER PAYMENTS EXPOSED. Data revealed the Times received over $46M in federal money since 2021, with HHS and NSF leading the charge at $26.9M and $19.1M respectively. Elon: "NYT is government-funded media".
• MIKE BENZ: USAID IMPLICATED IN WUHAN LAB FUNDING, AFGHAN HEROIN PRODUCTION, COVERT CUBAN TWITTER OP. “Some of the worst scandals in American statecraft involve USAID—funding the Wuhan lab, growing heroin in Afghanistan, irrigating poppy fields, and setting up a fake Twitter in Cuba. USAID’s own documents said the plan was to push sports and hurricane updates, then switch to anti-government content to spark riots. They even used HIV prevention clinics as cover for intelligence work to overthrow governments.” (video)
• EX-GOOGLE ENGINEER BUSTED FOR STEALING AI SECRETS—FOR CHINA! A former Google software engineer, Linwei Ding, has been charged with stealing AI trade secrets and allegedly funneling them to China. Ding, hired in 2019, secretly uploaded 1,000+ confidential Google files while working with Chinese tech firms—and even launched his own AI startup in China. Prosecutors say he stole supercomputing and chip design secrets to benefit the Chinese government.

• @TiffMoodNukes
  

• I don’t wanna hear another peep outta Democrats who are having petulant child tantrums over accountability. Their salaries are between $174K-$400K yet their net worths are in multitudes of millions. Audit them all, D.O.G.E. •Ilhan Omar net worth $83M •Chuck Schumer net worth $75M •Elizabeth Warren net worth $73M •Adam Schiff $60M •Jamie Raskin net worth $20M •Hakeem Jeffries $17M •Cory Booker net worth $14M •Jasmine Crockett net worth $10M.

• @VigilantNews

• NEW: Bill Gates tells Jimmy Fallon that we won’t need humans for “most things” with the new age of artificial intelligence. Hardly surprising from the man who says there are too many people on the planet. FALLON: “Will we still need humans?” GATES: “Not for most things.” FALLON: “Really?” (video)
  

• @KariLake

• We're finding out the fake news is brought to you by the United States government and our tax dollars. I think Washington D.C. is a crime scene right now with what they're uncovering. (video)

• @MarcNixon24

• BREAKING: America’s new Secretary of Energy just exposed the entire climate scam. “Media & politicians NEVER bothered to actually learn about climate change.” $2 TRILLION to lower fossil fuel use by 2%. They’re not saving the planet—they’re robbing YOU. (video)

• @ChemChasers

• THIS IS HUGE !! After initially being blocked, the DOGE has gained full access to NOAA’s IT systems. NOAA is responsible for weather data, monitoring, research, climate change and tracking extreme events like hurricanes and tornadoes. They are very likely a primary suspect for Geoengineering and Weather Manipulation. Especially considering the lengths they went to keep DOGE out. What are you hiding boys?? (video)

• @Beard_Vet

• Sen Warnock and Sanders have officially accepted the challenge from Nicole Shanahan and voted no to RFKjr. Let’s Get it On, Warnock and Bernie. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “The strange fog is a back & a private lab recently tested the fog”. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.25 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.3 +1.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.09%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Construction/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -2.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .32 -56.3%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.4 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 -1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.6 +2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 194.0 +42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -28.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$39.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.0 +.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 283.8 +.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 177 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.9 -1.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 142.0 -.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.8 -2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.0 +.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 84.8 -.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 +.2%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread .5 basis point +3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 606.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -2.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.2 +7.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.7 +2.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(293 of 500 reporting) +12.2% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.94 +.02:  Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 22.2 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.87% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +19.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.91 unch.: Growth Rate +30.0% unch., P/E 34.2 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.74 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 22.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.89% -99.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.5% -.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 62.2% (+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 45.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -125 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.9% 2) Healthcare Providers -2.6% 3) Defense -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TEX, BV, AFL, CRM, QCOM, GOOS, MTSI, HON, ASGN, CF, BDX, TENB, RRX, CMRE, VKTX, HI, IMVT, EFX, BTU, AB, SPB, MRC, CNMD, MNR, OSCR, BLCO, CYTK, PTC, CLS, ENSG, OMCL, FORM, HOLX, MOH, HAE, DLX, PI, EGO, RBLX, HP, SYM, DNA, SITM, HII, LSPD, GHRS, WEX and SWKS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SWKS 2) RBLX 3) EWG 4) AM 5) CCK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SWKS 2) WEX 3) HII 4) SYM 5) HP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) GDX 2) IYZ 3) IYW 4) OIH 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.5% 2) Road & Rail +2.2% 3) Computer Hardware +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMSC, HSAI, NGNE, PSFE, DGII, GRRR, IDCC, PBH, MBX, MT, TPR, COHR, TDOC, RL, AGX, KC, ASTS, TTMI, GTES, PM, SNDX, ACMR, RCAT, YUM, LQDT, NX, DYN, EH, DAR, ZK, SONO, UBER, XPO, OLN, DAVE, PLTR, PGY, TPB, NVST, LI, WB, MGNI, SMCI, VVV, CENTA, UTI, LNC, SERV, HSY, ICE, JLT, MAGN, BBVA, FWONK, OPFI, H, CSGS, TRI, APTV, ENVX, ALGT, PRTH, MP, CNTA, FLG, EZPW, ORIC, MNRO, KROS, LLY, BLBD, CRH, BYRN, MAR, PPG, DRD, RITM, CTSH and NSSC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APPS 2) ACB 3) SWKS 4) CROX 5) BILL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RL 2) COHR 3) AMSC 4) TPR 5) SMCI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLB 2) XLY 3) XLC 4) XHB 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CBOE)/2.13
• (ROAD)/.15
• (FLO)/.20
• (NWL)/.14
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey Data.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Jan. is estimated to fall to 173K versus 256K in Dec.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• The Unemployment Rate for Jan. is estimated to rise +4.1% versus a +4.1% gain in Dec. 
  

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 71.7 versus 71.1 in Jan.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Nov.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Feb. is estimated at +3.3% versus +3.3% in Jan.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Dec. is estimated at $14.55B versus -$7.489B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, Fed Monetary policy report, US Baker Hughes Oil Rig count and the CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST