Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,460.2 +1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 44,967.6 +2.0%

• NASDAQ 21,613.3 +.9%

• Russell 2000 2,289.4 +3.2%

• NYSE FANG+ 15,459.4 +.8%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 224.3 +3.9%

• Wilshire 5000 63,743.7 +1.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,519.1 +.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,953.4 +1.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.4 -.8%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 249.6 +1.9%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,423.4 +.1%

• Transports 15,700.2 +2.5%

• Utilities 1,107.4 -.8%

• MSCI Europe Banks 145.8 +3.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.1 +1.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 232.8 +1.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.8 +.7%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 570,464 +.67%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 +62.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 528 +89

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.0 +3.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 141,829 -9.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,036,424 +.4%

• Total Put/Call .72 -12.2%

• OEX Put/Call 2.2 +123.9%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 +34.0

• NYSE Arms .67 -52.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.7 +6.2%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +4.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -1.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .61 -2.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 15.3 -4.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.9 -4.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.1 -.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 56,866.6 +148.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  85.7 -10.6

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.186 Trillion +.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.771 Million

• AAII % Bulls 29.9 -14.3%

• AAII % Bears 46.2 +6.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +5.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 295.09 +.42%

• Crude Oil 62.73/bbl. -.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 207.0 +.6%

• Natural Gas 2.91 -1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
  

• Heating Oil 222.3 -.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 109.8 (1,000/metric ton) unch.

• Gold 3,337.0 -1.8%
• Silver 37.99 -1.0%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 463.3 +.14%

• Copper 449.4 +.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 347.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,800.0 USD/metric tonne +7.1%

• CME Lumber  611.5 -6.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,395.9 +2.3%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9 -.2 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 -3.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 218.9 +17.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.3 -17.6%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $205.0 Billion($1,273.29 Savings Per Taxpayer) +n/a
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% +n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.58 +n/a:  Growth Rate +12.6% +n/a percentage point, P/E 22.5 +n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.52 +n/a: Growth Rate +24.5% +n/a percentage points, P/E 32.9 +n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -6.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 -12.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 86.6%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 13.4%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 97.84 -.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,840.1 +.13%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 117,449.4 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.4 +.27%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.26%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 57.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.32% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.596 Trillion +.04%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.986 Billion -10.0%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.8 -3.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 206.8 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 80.0 +1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.0 -5.7%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.9 -4.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.5 -3.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.7 +2.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.3 -2.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.33 +.45%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 123.0 +.29%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% -10.0 basis points
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.9% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% -10.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.6% +30.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% +4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.84% +12.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -8.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -11.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.25 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.5 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.8 -2.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 202.0 +2.4% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 221.0 +18.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.8 -3.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 117.0 -3.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 145.7 -3.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 583.0 -3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .52 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,394.0B -.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 221,750 +.34%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.1 -1.0%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.69% -5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 281,100 +10.9%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.4% +30.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $180.9M -32.2%

• Nationwide Gas $3.15/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,039.0 -.6%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,349.7/40 ft Box -3.1%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,193.3 -.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +8.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 61.6 -7.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 283,867 +1.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,832,747 +15.1% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 49.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +3.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +10.7%

• Healthcare Providers +8.4%
• Alt Energy +6.9%

• Pharma +6.0%
  

• Electrification +4.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities -.8%

• Shipping -.8%
  

• Networking -1.5%

• Education -1.6%
  

• Nuclear -2.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (48)

• RUN, SEDG, UNH, CSIQ, SDM, ENPH, DQ, NXT, MBX, FSLR, JKS, BHVN, NU, LYFT, ICUI, ARWR, KOD, ZETA, AAOI, INTC, SNDX, HSAI, TWLO, CNC, ELV, OSCR, SPOT, MIRM, WING, OPRA, FROG, CRM, PDD, SSRM, MELI, TREE, TATT, BE, APLS, CLBT, IREN, FTNT and FOUR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• FLO, XYF, CSCO, QFIN, GLXY, RBLX, LRCX, KLAC, SLNO, WLDN, SLM and AMAT

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Financial/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 -6.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.58 +.18:  Growth Rate +12.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.52 +.18: Growth Rate +24.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.3 unch.
• US Yield Curve 57.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (-6.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (FN)/2.64
• (PANW)/.89
• (XP)/2.34 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for August.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 34.0 versus 33.0 in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Needham Group Virtual Industrial Tech/Robotics/Clean Tech Conference, EnerCom Denver Energy Investment Conference and the Rosenblatt Age of AI Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Japan’s economy expanded faster than expected last quarter, avoiding a recession and giving embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba some rare good news as he fends off calls to resign. 
• In the first two weeks of August alone, Masayoshi Son has added $9 billion to his fortune as SoftBank’s AI bets sent its shares to record highs.
• Hedge funds added exposure to technology giants including Microsoft and Netflix in the second quarter, a stretch that saw an initial surge in volatility due to President Trump’s trade policies. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  .

• @ZeroHedge 

• Apple Plans AI Robots, Smarter Siri And Home Devices In Bid To Regain Momentum.
• Treasury Sanctions Mexican Cartel Associates For Timeshare Scams Targeting Older Americans
  .
• Bank Of America Nixes Rule That Led To 'Debanking' Of Conservative Religious Groups.
• The Most Insidious Trick Of AI Language Models.
• 'Shadow Government' Bureaucrats Exposed For Stoking Woke Insanity In Red States.
• Medical Journal Rejects RFK Jr.'s Call To Retract Paper.
• Guess What Leftists Have Up Their Sleeve In Response To Trump's D.C. Crime Crackdown...  
• China Will Ask Firms Run By Central Government To Buy Unsold Homes.
• Misinformation Scholarship Exposed As Liberal Activist Grift.
• *UNITEDHEALTH CLIMBS 7% POSTMARKET AS BERKSHIRE DISCLOSES STAKE.
• *BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ADDS UNH, NUE, LEN, DHI, LAMR IN 2Q: 13F. Uncle Warren going long housing: we are getting lots of rate cuts folks.  
• *US MONEY-MARKET FUND ASSETS HIT RECORD $7.19 TRILLION AT ICI.
• Intel Soars On Report US Government To Buy Stake In Chip Giant.
• Bitcoin & Bullion Dumped As Hot PPI Prompts Plunge In Bonds. 

• @CNBC

• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Michael Burry joins Buffett's Berkshire in scooping up UnitedHealth shares.
• Appaloosa’s David Tepper reveals new position in Intel, raises bets on UnitedHealth.   
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Applied Materials, UnitedHealth, Intel and more. 
• D1 Capital adds positions in homebuilder D.R. Horton, industrial names. 

• @TheTranscript 

• $CSCO Cisco CEO: "As we move towards Agentic AI and the demand for inferencing expands to the enterprise and end-user networking environments, traffic on the network will reach unprecedented levels. Network traffic will not only increase beyond the peaks of current chatbot interaction, but will remain consistently high with agents in constant interaction."
• Applied Materials double beat. CFO: "We are expecting a decline in revenue in Q4 FY 25 driven by both digestion of capacity in China and non- linear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing". $AMAT: -11% AH.

• @MarioNawful

• U.S. PREDATOR DRONE HUNTS CARTELS 600 MILES INSIDE MEXICO. A US Customs and Border Protection MQ-9 Guardian flew over 600 miles into Mexico, orbiting near La Nueva Familia Michoacana cartel strongholds before going dark. The rare public mission, reportedly cleared by Mexico, comes as the Trump administration pushes to use military force against cartels. The deep-penetration flight highlights growing cross-border cooperation, and a more aggressive stance, in targeting cartel operations far from the border. 
• TRUMP’S DOJ IS COMING FOR FAUCI’S FAVORITE COVID STUDY. Trump’s team is now digging into a science paper that said COVID definitely didn’t come from a lab. Why? Because the authors said one thing in public... and something very different in private. They even thanked Fauci for his “leadership,” then got a big fat grant right after. The paper became super famous, used to shut down “lab leak” talk. But now 5,700 scientists want it retracted. Turns out, even science can get shady when politics and money are involved.

• @ShadowofEzra

• A WEF-linked bioethicist is pushing to genetically modify humans to be allergic to meat, claiming it would slash livestock emissions and help fight climate change. He argues people are simply eating too much meat.

• @charliekirk11 

• Why is the @NFL actively trying to tick off their most loyal fans? What is the reason for this? (video)

• @Libsoftiktok

• Watch Muslim Socialist NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani get BOOED out of a restaurant in Staten Island. "There's the communist... You are not welcome... you Jew-hating piece of sh*t... you hate this country." (video)

• @ChiefNerd

• WEINSTEIN: “The idea that we get myocarditis from the COVID shots is really standing in for a much starker reality … Myocarditis is the symptom of damage to the heart done by our own immune systems in response to the cells in the heart producing a foreign protein”. (video)

• @RodDMartin

• TRUMP TO REFILL STRATEGIC PHARMA RESERVES. President Trump just signed an order to refill America’s strategic reserve of drug ingredients — and cut our 95% dependence on China for lifesaving meds. Biden left it EMPTY. Trump’s filling it FAST. THREAD.
• CHINA’S DIRTY BATTERY SECRET. The CCP isn’t “competing” in the global battery market. It’s parasitizing it — using subsidies, theft, and predatory pricing to crush rivals and control a resource nearly as strategic as oil. Here’s the ugly truth. (thread)

• @drdanchoi

• Again, one of my biggest regrets was voting for President Obama in 2008 as a medical student & celebrating the passage of the ACA Little did I know the carnage it would wreck on the medical profession and my future patients. I had no idea then that the ACA was written to strip physicians of their autonomy, boost insurer profits & drive healthcare consolidation End result 15 years later is a more expensive healthcare system with less competition resulting in lower quality, less efficient care for patients. Coverage is not care! @realDonaldTrump has opportunity of lifetime to fix what President Obama broke.

• @DefiantLs

• DC resident on Trump cleaning up the city: “The best thing to happen to this city in decades”. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• BOMBSHELL: Kash Patel Uncovers Obama Deputy AG Sally Yates’ Email Ordering FBI Agents to Shut Down Clinton Foundation Corruption Investigation — “SHUT IT DOWN”.

• @GuntherEagleman

• It is PATHETIC our House and Senate GOP leadership has yet to pass any secure election laws. @SpeakerJohnson and @LeaderJohnThune are FAILING.

• @Trump_Army_

• BREAKING: President Trump has dropped a bombshell by directing the Department of Justice to launch a full-scale investigation into ActBlue, the Democratic Party's powerhouse fundraising platform, over allegations of widespread election fraud and illicit foreign contributions. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.0 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.04%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Sector Rotation, Technical Buying, Financial/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 +2.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .51 -6.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 79.9 +1.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.37%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.2 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.18 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.9 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 138.0 -27.0

• Total Put/Call .79 +6.8%

• NYSE Arms .90 -25.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$358.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.1 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 353.6 -.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 215.0 +9.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 117.6 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.1 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.7 +.14%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 76.4 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.75 basis points -.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -10.5 basis points +2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.5 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 583.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 53.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 -1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 -1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(458 of 500 reporting) +11.3% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.40 +.11:  Growth Rate +12.5% unch., P/E 22.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.24 +.18: Growth Rate +24.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.5 -.6
• US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.6% +.9 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.6% (-10.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 45.9%(+8.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +185 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long