Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Energy/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.14%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.5 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -1.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.81 +.23:  Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.24 +.72: Growth Rate +24.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.50 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 -.4
• US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -.1 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 47.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Nuclear -.7% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• METC, ARLP, OS, ARCT, AR, QFIN, USAR, NNE and TNXP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MDT 2) IBB 3) IQ 4) WULF 5) FSLR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NNE 2) EMPD 3) LZGI 4) RSKD 5) REPL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) XLC 4) XLI 5) LABU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +4.6% 2) Electrification +3.5% 3) Oil Service +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DAY, ZEPP, AAOI, KYIV, APLD, DUOL, NMAX, IBTA, CCOI, NXT, FSLR, RIOT, BTDR, RUN, CYD, SERV, DNA, OSCR, TTD, NEGG, CHA, SBET, HSAI, IREN, AMN, SYNA, SONO, CELH, ENPH, SEDG, RCL, WIX, ZK, LQDA, JBS, NVO, LULU, VEON, VKTX, NOVT, TBPH, TEM, SUPV, RIGL, UNH, MUX, UNH, PENG and PGY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FIVE 2) SWK 3) JBS 4) OS 5) PRMW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DAY 2) PPCB 3) VTAK 4) FSLR 5) RUN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SILJ 2) XBI 3) VGT 4) XOP 5) SOXX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AS)/.02
• (HD)/4.72
• (MDT)/1.23 
• (VIK)/.99 

After the Close: 

• (JKHY)/1.58
• (KEYS)/1.67
• (LZB)/.53
• (SQM)/.51
• (TOL)/3.60
• (ZTO)/2.86 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1296K versus 1321K in June.
• Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1385K versus 1393K in June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly crude oil stock report, America Taiwan Tech Forum, (MCHP) annual meeting and the Needham Virtual Semi/Semi-Cap Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.3 +2.0
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 +6.2% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$40.8M
  
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 54.0% (+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.6 +1.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4% -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 250.9 +.24%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.2 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 7.2 -39.3%
  
• Vix 15.2 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .81 +9.5

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Zelenskiy and his European allies arrive in Washington on Monday anxious to find out what Trump committed to at his summit with Putin.
• The $17 billion options trader Optiver is expanding its NYC presence in a bid to take on Jane Street and Citadel Securities.
• More and more companies are reaping measurable benefits from AI. For private companies on the road to an IPO, the technology is proving to be a particularly powerful tool. Read more in the latest CFO Briefing. 
• Bond traders’ big bet that the Fed is poised to lower interest rates faces a key moment this week as Chair Jerome Powell gets a chance to weigh in on the economy. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge  

• New GPS Data Reveals Exactly Who Showed Up At White House Protests.
• Flesh-Eating Bacteria Cases On the Rise: Here Are The Symptoms.
• Witkoff Says White House Pushing To Extract 'Article 5-Like' Protections For Ukraine.
• Billionaires For Socialism: The $2 Billion "Grassroots" Operation Behind Zohran Mamdani.
• We Got Some Data, But It Didn't Change Peoples' Minds.
• Sam Altman Quietly Taps Top Democrat Operatives To Help ChatGPT Plot For-Profit.
• "The Anti-MAGA": Blood-Soaked Bush Family Plots Revival Of Political Dynasty.
• 54% now expect expect YCC or QE... was 0 a few months ago. We now go from "conspiracy theory" to conventional wisdom in a record short time. (graph)    
• Texas Is Preparing To Cut Off Power To Data Centers During Grid Emergencies.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to mostly open higher as investors await details of U.S.-Ukraine talks.
• Earnings playbook: Retail takes center stage with Walmart and Target set to report.

• @TheTranscript

• Bloom Energy CEO had a humorous but revealing take on why some customers still choose legacy solutions like gas turbines instead of Bloom’s fuel cells: "I completely agree with you, but nobody gets fired for buying IBM." $BE.

• @GatewayPundit

• Comey Trashes President Trump in 5-Minute Rant, Says Taylor Swift Helps Him Cope with Trump (VIDEO).
• Man Named Mohamed Mohamed Rapes Unconscious Woman in Front of Nashville Church Before She Dies.
• President Trump’s Executive Order on Unleashing American Energy: US Department of Energy Crucial in National Defense.

• @FoxNews  

• 68 DC suspects arrested in single night as White House touts Trump's push to 'clean up' capital city.
• French President Macron, British PM Keir Starmer, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and other leaders will join President @ZelenskyyUa in D.C. on Monday, presenting a united front following President Trump's summit with President Putin. 

• @MarioNawful

• IVY LEAGUE = ONE-PARTY STATE. Harvard isn’t a campus anymore. It’s a monoculture in tweed. 99% Democrat. Princeton? 98. Yale, Berkeley? 97. Even “balanced” UCLA is 89. That’s not a lean. That’s ideological foreclosure. Republicans aren’t underrepresented - they’re an endangered species. The actual diversity crisis isn’t race or gender. It’s thought. These schools are incubators of America’s ruling class: presidents, justices, CEOs, the people writing tomorrow’s laws and algorithms. If every seminar room is an echo chamber, what happens when the echo becomes law? Academic freedom thrives on friction. Without it, the Ivy League stops being a university system and starts being a ministry of truth. The real question: who dares break the spell?
• ISRAELI CYBER OFFICIAL BUSTED IN U.S. PEDOPHILIA STING. Las Vegas police arrested 8 men in a major operation targeting online child predators, including Israeli cyber directorate employee Tom Artiom Alexandrovich. He worked on Israel’s national cyber defense and even helped design the “Cyber Dome,” but now he’s on forced leave after returning home. Cops say the suspects tried luring minors online for sex. FBI and Vegas PD warn parents to keep a close eye on kids’ online activity. 
• 4,000+ U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED TO LATIN AMERICA IN MASSIVE ANTI-CARTEL MISSION. The U.S. military is flooding the waters around Latin America and the Caribbean with over 4,000 Marines and sailors as part of Trump’s counter-cartel push. a deployment so large it includes warships, a nuclear-powered sub, spy planes, and an entire Marine Expeditionary Unit. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? Democrats and the media repeatedly said no illegals were on social security, now Donald Trump says THEY HAVE REMOVED A QUARTER OF A MILLION ILLEGALS FROM SOCIAL SECURITY SO FAR???? 250,000 illegals DRAWING OUR SOCIAL SECURITY. (video)
• THIS IS MASSIVE!! Starting December 1, 2025 the Donald Trump Administration is cracking down on all cash buyers and LLCs purchasing American homes. “The federal government is cracking down on home cash purchases targeting properties purchased to all cash by LLCs, Corporation, Trust and more. For years this type of purchases were flying under the radar and they were keeping the homeowners names anonymous. And that's all about to change right Now.  

• @CharlieKirk11

• Abolish the Senate. End the Electoral College. Pack the Court. Why the left can't win without a new Constitution. -NYT. They hate you. They hate the Constitution. And they hate America. (pic)

• @paulsperry_

• BREAKING: Newly declassified FBI documents reveal the FBI's Los Angeles Field Office was investigating at least nineteen (19) Clinton Foundation bank accounts for possible "campaign finance fraud" in 2016-2017 before the Justice Department shut the "sensitive" investigation down. (video)

• @Nichulscher

• Criminal Referral Requests Filed in SEVEN States Against Drs. Fauci, Hotez, Birx, Walensky, Daszak, Baric, & Other Top COVID Officials. Accused of murder, terrorism, racketeering, fraud, abuse & other serious charges — NOT just perjury. Two active criminal investigations are underway. The referrals were filed by Vires Law Group and are backed by detailed evidence—including testimony from over 80 victims and families. They said that lethal hospital protocols, the denial of life-saving treatments, and systemic medical coercion led to widespread injury and death. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: President Trump just revealed that Vladimir Putin told him our mail-in voting is causing our elections to become RIGGED - and Trump is pushing to ban it nationwide. "We have to do it." "[Putin] said 'your election was rigged because you have mail-in voting.' He said 'mail-in voting, every election, no country has mail-in voting. It is impossible to have mail-in voting and have honest elections.'" "He said, 'You lost [2020] because of mail-in voting. It was a rigged election.'" (video)
• JUST REVEALED: California voters oppose Governor Gavin Newsom's plan to gerrymander the state for Democrats by a stunning 28 points, 64%-36%. Voters want the independent commission to draw the districts, not Newsom and Democrat lawmakers. He's failing.

• @IAnonPatriot

• Not a single African American protesting a safe Washington DC.. Interesting. (video)

• @RodDMartin 

• Top British Army officer warns: “Civil war is coming to the UK.” Yes, actual warfare. Like Syria. Which fits, since Britain is full of Syrians these days. Why? Because weak politicians refuse to act, on matters people find intolerable. (thread)
• BOMBSHELL: Newly released emails PROVE our own intelligence community sabotaged the 2018 Trump-Putin summit. They pushed a fake “Russia hacked the DNC” story they KNEW was false, weaponizing it to blow up the summit. There are no lengths to which they didn't go. (thread)
• BREAKING: Trump pauses new tariffs on China after his Alaska summit with Putin — but warns Beijing could be hit with crushing penalties in weeks if Russia doesn’t move toward peace. Here’s why this is a massive geopolitical play. (thread) 

• @FBIDirectorKash

• FBI agents uncovered evidence of pay-to-play at the Clinton Foundation in 2016. DOJ leadership & McCabe ordered them to ‘Shut it down.’ We’ve now declassified the memo. This is proof of political interference at the highest levels.

• @Nicksortor

• BREAKING: Vladimir Putin’s Russian delegation are now describing the meeting with Trump as “excellent,” saying it went “VERY WELL” We might just be witnessing a landmark peace deal coming together! (video)
• NOW: US Marshals are patrolling the streets of DC, following orders from President Trump and the DOJ. Friday and Saturday nights are regularly CHAOS in DC, thanks to massive groups of “youths” terrorizing civilians. So far, it’s a quiet night! Amazing. (video) 

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: Black Americans have started uploading videos requesting President Trump to ‘Clean up Chicago.’ Chicagoan“Hey Trump! Trump, you need to bring the National Guard to Chicago, man. You got kids kiIIing kids, man. Thats not good.” (video)

• @RepLuna

• Looks like Zelenskyy had a bail out plan using American Dollars: He is transferring over $50 million to the UAE every month. Turkish newspaper Aydinlik published on Monday the bank accounts of companies based in the UAE involved in the corruption scheme of Volodymyr Zelensky’s cronies, about $50 million is transferred to the Middle Eastern country every month.

• @bennyjohnson

• The Smithsonian has an exhibit portraying George Floyd as Jesus Christ!? Yes, you read that correctly. Jillian Michaels exposes how the exhibit paints all cops as villains, implies Black Americans should live in fear, and features a video directly comparing George Floyd to our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ: (video)

• @FightWithMemes

• I didn't realize how bad it was.
  

• @EYakoby

• If you’re running for mayor of NYC, maybe don’t hang out with the guy who said 9/11 was good. (pic)
• BREAKING: Thousands march through Manhattan, calling for a “global intifada.” Not a single American flag is present. (video)

• @gc22gc

• NOTHING TO SEE HERE: Klaus Schwab Cleared of Any Crimes as Larry Fink Takes Control of the Party of Davos World Economic Forum … (pic)

• @RogerJStoneJr

• First Hillary. Now Brennan. They seem to think flattery will spare them from the criminal indictment for seditious conspiracy to commit TREASON, which is coming their way. (video)

• @C_3C_3

• Here is a video of Fox News Jacqui Heinrich bashing President Trump trying to create world peace. Jacqui is engaged to Rep Brian Fitzpatrick. Rep Brian Fitzpatrick voted no on BBB because he wanted more taxpayer money going to Ukraine. Make sense now? (video)

• @ImMeme0

• Democrats: “How dare Trump smile, shake hands, and have a casual conversation with Putin.” (pics)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 -.13% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.62 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.9 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
• S&P 500 futures +.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.