Monday, November 24, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Crypto Stabilization, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.13%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.81% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.6 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.8 -9.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.0 -2.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +13.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.73 +1.16:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 503.72 +3.5: Growth Rate +24.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.6 +.2
  • US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.6% +.6 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.5% (+6.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.8%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +975 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -1.2% 2) Insurance -.4% 3) Shipping -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TGNA, FRO, PRDO, UTI, KRP, ANF, NVO, ATGE, ONC, LEGN, GRND, ACLX and SUPX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ANF 2) AVTR 3) SLG 4) CAPR 5) ZM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CLSD 2) GRND 3) ACLX 4) WALD 5) LRN
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XBI 4) GDX 5) KBWB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +2.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +5.8% 2) Gold & Silver +4.8% 3) Semis +4.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CGEM, INSP, OSCR, HSAI, GRAL, MAGN, CLSK, ADUR, BMNR, LITE, CLS, SNDK, PONY, THC, GLUE, SEPN, BLLN, CD, AVGO, LIVN, PRAX, MODG, ODD, SNDX, PACS, COHR, WGS, CIEN, TXG, CSIQ, ARMN, USFD, RIGL, ARWR, ADPT, COMM, TSN, OLMA, MOD, GNK, COMP, VRDN, AXGN, FIX, GOOG, BE, GLXY, COCO, CNC, GLBE, AZTA, BABA, ARQT, ABVX, CAI, KYIV, AOSL, GLIBK, JBS, BEAM, BBWI, MDGL, ALRM, NTES, CEVA, TNGX, ETOR, MGNI, MSTTR, RCUS, DAVE, NVRI, JOYY, TYRA, YMM, BKD, MEDP, ZYME, MRP, KEYS, MS, SYM, MRK, UGI, FER, J, META, IDXX, SYM, BBIO, UAL, HCA, ANGO, APGE, AMTM and OXLC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) JBS 2) FRMI 3) EH 4) STT 5) ELAN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CGEM 2) OSCR 3) CVNA 4) AVGO 5) SNDK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VOX 2) VGT 3) XLV 4) ARKK 5) FDN
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/2.17
  • (BABA)/6.03
  • (ADI)/2.24
  • (BBY)/1.31
  • (BURL)/1.64
  • (DKS)/2.69
  • (SJM)/2.10
  • (KSS)/-.16 
After the Close: 
  • (AMBA)/.20
  • (ADSK)/2.50
  • (DELL)/2.47
  • (GES)/.25
  • (HPQ)/.92
  • (NTAP)/1.88
  • (NTNX)/.41
  • (PD)/.25
  • (WOOF)/.02
  • (URBN)/1.20
  • (WDAY)/2.17
  • (ZS)/.86 
Economic Release 
8:30 am EST
  • ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate. 
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in Aug. 

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug. 
  • The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.19% gain in Aug. 

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in July. 
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to -5 versus -4 in Oct.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Nov. is estimated to fall to 93.3 versus 94.6 in Oct.
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Sept. 

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Nov. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 5Y T-Note auction, M2 Money Supply MoM for Oct., weekly US retail sales report, weekly API crude oil stock report and the TD Cowen Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -12.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 +.4
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 60.8% of Issues Advancing, 37.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .99 +47.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$10.1M
  • 37 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 56.8% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.6 +.2
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 29.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% unch.
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 64.0% +25.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 87.0 +2.9%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 445.0 -4.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.2 +1.0%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.1 +1.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 14.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.6 -41.7%
  • Vix 21.1 -10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -1.2%

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @MarioNawful
  • CHINA SIMULATES STARLINK TAKEOVER WITH 1,000 DRONES. Chinese researchers just ran a massive war simulation to see if they could shut down Starlink over Taiwan. Their answer? Technically yes, but only if they use over 1,000 high-flying drones blasting signals in sync like a sci-fi light show. Why so tricky? Starlink is fast, smart, and built to survive chaos. It bounces between satellites, hops frequencies, and adapts on the fly, something that helped Ukraine keep fighting in 2022. The study shows it’s possible to jam it… just not easy.
  • ROBLOX BANNED THE GUY CATCHING PREDATORS - KEPT THE 30% CUT FROM THEIR SERVERS. 75 million kids log in daily. The 764 cult operates openly. Shirts saying "I love CP" pass moderation. Kids traded for Discord Nitro trials. An 11-year-old sold for crypto. All happening while Roblox banks 30% on every transaction. One YouTuber - Schlep, himself a former Roblox grooming victim - catches predators, gets 6 arrests. Roblox's response? Cease-and-desist letter, platform ban, press release calling vigilantes the problem. The math is simple: moderation costs money. Predators generate traffic. Traffic generates transactions. Transactions generate 30% commissions. The incentive structure is a death trap. This isn't negligence - it's a business model. They could deploy AI to catch "pedophile rapist" usernames (even misspelled). They won't. They could ban servers with 764 imagery. They don't. They could thank the guy getting arrests. Instead they sued him. Every Robux card bought at Target funds the infrastructure. Every parent who knows and keeps paying is complicit. The platform's message is clear: profit trumps kids. Every single time.
  • ZELENSKY: AMERICAN PEACE PLAN COULD FINALLY END THE BLOODSHED. “The Ukrainian delegation is working in Geneva today, focused on finding doable solutions to end the war, restore peace, and guarantee lasting security. There is an understanding that the American proposals may include elements based on Ukrainian perspectives and critical for our national interests. Work is ongoing to make all elements effective in achieving the main goal anticipated by our people: to finally put an end to the bloodshed and war.” 
  • @NickSortor
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @BreannaMorello
  • @newstart_2024
  • @amuse
  • @TonySeruga
  • @disclosetv
  • @MDBreathe
  • @GenFlynn
  • @DC_Draino
  • @BasedSamParker
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @MAGAvoice
  • BREAKING! Elon Musk just reposted on 𝕏 to his 229 Million followers supporting Congress passing. - Voter ID. - Paper Ballots. - Same Day Voting. - Proof of citizenship. THIS NEEDS TO BE OUR NUMBER ONE PRIORITY. TIME TO GET LOUD MAGA.
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @susanCrabtree
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 47.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.82%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.79 -.11% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.05 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.8 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.06% -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.2 -1.9%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.82%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.59%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.83%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.