Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Crypto Plunge, Technical Selling, Tech/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 +2.2%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .18 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.2 +.6%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 127.3 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.4 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.1 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -.7 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(193 of 500 reporting) +14.8% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.89 +.70:  Growth Rate +17.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.93% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +18.9% +.3 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 496.84 +.60: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.4 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 70.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.8 +2.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% -1.5 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.27% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.37 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 76.0% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 45.9%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -895 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -8.6% 2) Software -5.5% 3) Cyber Security -4.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PHR, CG, SAP, ICE, PAX, GME, APPF, CLBT, INFY, TTWO, BR, OTF, NGL, VIST, NOW, BX, SAN, OTEX, ROP, VEEV, IBM, APO, FICO, IOT, ENVA, CRM, CDNS, PSO, DOX, NET, TEAM, MCO, GWRE, RHI, SNPS, TYL, NDAQ, BKNG, TOST, DT, ACIW, DSGX, PAR, MNDY, SSNC, FDS, PNR, MMYT, BRZE, TTD, TDG, IQV, PCOR, ACN, KKR, HUBS, SNOW, SHOP, TTAN, EFX, SPGI, TPG, FIG, CTSH, TRU, ARES, STEP, FN, INTU, DOCU, CPRI, MLI, INTA, OWL, CSGP, VRNS, NCNO, U, MANH, NVO, EPAM, RMBS, RELX, EXPE, EVER, TREE, EXLS, TRI, FIGR, NIQ, MGNI, GPK, PYPL, GLXY and IT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) DAY 3) OWL 4) CSGP 5) ARES

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1)  2) MSTR 3) VRRM 4) EQT 5) COIN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) PAVE 2) AIQ 3) XLK 4) IYH 5) GDXJ

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.2% 2) Nuclear +2.4% 3) Energy +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ANL, USAR, VELO, DVA, ALM, CRML, WWD, HYMC, UUUU, TER, HUN, RKT, ASM, SCCO, BLTE, QURE, SGML, AMPX, BALL, DXYZ, SCZM, WBS, CRS, AES, WULF, TECK, HBM, PLTR, MP, WDC, WLK, NSSC, AG, HL, LYB, WHR, ERO, CEF, BVN, PSLV, WULF, EXK, IAG, TFII, EPD, FLOC, EQX, PHYS, FDX, AU, GWW, EMN, FCX, SSRM, ATI, IE, WTW, ALK, DOW, SPPP, EXP, SA, FORM, VLO, IBP, BLDR, VZ, HTLD, ORLA, ITW, USFD, SA, KNF, DBVT, IPGP, SKM, ORLA, EFXT, NJR, XOM, LIF, GFI, FBIN, GILT, SA, KGC, UAL, VLY, GFI, PAAS, BHP, FBIN, CAG, BCX, LITE, TECX, FAST, NEXA, NUE, CCS, POWL, RIO, IMO and ABCB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JBS 2) GSK 3) NVT 4) OWL 5) BUD 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TER 2) WDC 3) PLTR 4) WWD 5) DVA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) COPX 3) XLE 4) KRE 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.65
• (AVY)/2.40
• (BSX)/.78
• (BG)/1.81
• (CDW)/2.44
• (COR)/4.05
• (CME)/2.75
• (LLY)/6.94
• (EVR)/4.05
• (FLEX)/.78
• (FOXA)/.50
• (GSK)/.64
• (JCI)/1.05
• (LEA)/2.81
• (ODFL)/1.06
• (PSX)/2.15
• (SWK)/1.28
• (TROW)/2.46
• (UBER)/.79
• (UBS)/.54 
• (VSH)/.02
• (YUM)/1.76 

After the Close: 

• (AFL)/1.69
• (ALGN)/2.97
• (ALL)/9.83
• (GOOG)/2.63
• (ARM)/.41
• (AVB)/2.85
• (BOOT)/2.77
• (COHR)/1.21
• (CCI)/1.07
• (ENS)/2.72
• (FLNC)/-.21
• (KLIC)/.33
• (MCK)/(9.17)
• (MET)/2.34
• (MOD)/.99
• (ORLY)/.73
• (QCOM)/3.39
• (SITM)/1.21
• (SNAP)/-.03
• (STE)/2.53
• (SYM)/.08
• (TTMI)/.68 

Economic Release 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Jan. is estimated to rise to 45K versus 41K in Dec. 

8:30 am EST 

• US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US Composite readings for Jan.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 54.4 in Dec.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to rise to 64.7 versus 64.3 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +36.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 -.7
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 44.7% of Issues Advancing, 53.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .94 -22.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$28.4M
  
• 249 New 52-Week Highs, 115 New Lows
• 67.3% (-.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.4 -4.6

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 32.0% unch.
• The US government shutdown will last 6+ days 2.0% -28.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 53.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.1 -1.7%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 476.25 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.1 -1.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 143.2 -3.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (moved to FEAR from GREED) -24.0
• 1-Day Vix 15.3 +61.8%
  
• Vix 19.2 +17.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 -1.2%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• *SOFTBANK CORP, INTEL SIGN PACT ON NEXT-GEN MEMORY TECHNOLOGY. 
• Israel Surrenders To The Truth: Admits 70,000 Killed In Gaza.
• Musk's SpaceX Combines With xAI At $1.25 Trillion Valuation.
• California Plans "Mileage Tax" To Bleed Citizens For Even More Cash.
• Border Czar Homan Says More Than 145,000 Illegal Immigrant Children Located.
• Clintons agree to testify in House Epstein investigation: NYT.
• The Arrest Of Don Lemon: Journalists Cannot Also Be Activists.
• NEW: REID HOFFMAN, the Dem megadonor, has claimed his "last interaction" with Jeffrey Epstein was in 2015. Emails tell a totally different story -- dinners, a "phone date", and Skype calls through at least 2018.     
• A federal appeals court reversed the dismissal of AFL’s lawsuit challenging the School District of Philadelphia’s race-driven admissions overhaul for its formerly merit-based public high schools. A major victory for parents, students, and equal treatment under law.
• "All In" On AI: Deutsche Bank Says Tesla No Longer Just A Car Company.
• Clinton Judge Goes On Unhinged Rant In Order Releasing Illegals.
• @POTUS: "For years, American businesses have risked running out of critical minerals during market disruptions. Today, we're launching what will be known as Project Vault to ensure that American businesses and workers are never harmed by any shortage."
• "F**k ICE!": Awards Season Exposes 'Spoiled, Entitled, Reality-Denying Tyrants'.
• Surging U.S. economic surprises just exposed late dollar shorts.
• Stocks & Crypto Rebound Today As All That Glitters Is Sold... Again.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: India and U.S. strike a trade deal, and markets shrug off precious metals rout.
• Asia markets rise on U.S.-India trade deal optimism; gold and silver rebound.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• William Blair's Louie DiPalma: ‘Palantir in position to win big from a $1.5 billion defense budget’.

• @TheTranscript 

• We love working with NVIDIA and they make the best AI chips in the world. We hope to be a gigantic customer for a very long time. I don't get where all this insanity is coming from. -Sam Altman.
• $PLTR CEO: "...our U.S. commercial business,...is now growing at an astonishing rate, generating $507Mlast quarter—+137%Y/Y...To be clear, our U.S. commercial business has more than doubled in the space of twelve months." (graph)
• Palantir CEO: "Last quarter, our U.S. revenue grew 93% Y/Y, and U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% Y/Y We are also announcing a 2026 revenue growth guide of 61% Y/Y. We are an n of 1, and these numbers prove it." $PLTR: +7% AH.

• @ElonMusk

• Sorry… maybe a dumb question. But if there are Epstein files, videos, and names tied to serious crimes, why hasn’t anyone been arrested yet? Wow, it’s so crazy the Epstein “killed himself” before realizing he was “innocent”. And Ghislaine Maxwell is in prison for what exactly? Oh yeah. Epstein client arrest counter is still zero.

• @GenFlynn

• They need to release Epstein’s videos with the victim’s images blurred out. He recorded everything. That will eliminate all doubt. I am in none of them, but many prominent people, especially on the left, are. Game over. Then @realDonaldTrump let’s get this “game over.” Direct our DOJ to release the videos as stated below. This Epstein Affair is growing uglier by the minute. End this mess and expose the evil bastards that committed these heinous crimes now! (video)

• @drawandstrike

• It's been sitting RIGHT THERE in the open how they got Dementia Joe to 81 million votes in 2020. Fake/illegal voter applications on-line, where the people who created the fake/illegal voter then REQUESTED A MAIL-IN BALLOT for that fake/illegal voter, and then they filled it out and mailed it back in. That's how they got him to 81 million votes. Now, the 43,000 vote margin in the 5 battleground states that they got by doing 3 furious days of ballot dumping, THOSE weren't mail in votes created weeks before election day, filled out and mailed in. Those were pre-printed ballots they had waiting in boxes inside of vans to drop off at the counting centers once they realized Trump was beating their cheat and they were gonna have to move 'Plan B'.

• @TheSCIF

• Michigan 2020 election worker reports that a white van, and 2 other cars showed up at the Detroit TCF center on Nov. 4th between 3 and 4 am with 138,000+ ballots, unsealed, with no chain of custody, which were all 100% marked for Joe Biden. This report lines up with multiple testimonies and affidavits and was caught on camera. The 2020 election was stolen. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Communist Party. Schools stopped being a place of learning and became a place of indoctrination… If you have a child in public schools, they are being turned into the next RED GUARD. Homeschool your children.. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Thomas Massie reveals that FBI Director Kash Patel concluded there were no Epstein clients before reviewing a single interview lead that could have implicated 20 alleged clients, including six billionaires. According to Massie, those interview leads were never examined before the determination was made. When questioned, Kash Patel’s response was, “I trust the people that work for me.” (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Meanwhile in Italy. Tens of Thousands of radical Far Left Antifa took over the streets of Turin yesterday. When night fell, 1,000s of them clashed with police - all this was over a Giorgia Meloni decision to shut down a large building that was being used by illegal migrant squatters. These far left protests are well funded, well resourced, and highly organised!! (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• WAKE UP CALL TO JOHN THUNE: @RepTimBurchett just laid it out as simple as anyone could on one thing that will all but GUARANTEE a landslide win in 2026: "You need to show an ID if you go register to vote." The SAVE Act is supported by nearly everyone BUT the Senate GOP. They need to understand the DIRE situation America is set to be in without secure elections. "All this is, is another example of Washington protecting their crooked base. They can't get elected legitimately." There is NO BETTER TIME than right now to get the SAVE Act passed!!
• BREAKING: A MASSIVE group of House Republicans, led by firebrand Rep. Brandon Gill, just DROPPED A BOMBSHELL letter DEMANDING Mitch McConnell RELEASE THE SAVE ACT from the Senate Rules Committee and bring it straight to the floor for a vote! PASS THE SAVE ACT!. (pic)
• JUST IN: Majority leader for Republicans, Senator John Thune, is receiving massive pressure from Republicans to get the SAVE Act passed. CALL HIM THIS WEEK! HE NEEDS TO HEAR FROM EVERYONE! Words of “encouragement” He is tagged in this post and his office number (202) 224-2321, be polite or try to be. 

• @BreannaMorello

• REPORT. Ed Martin has no plans to leave the DOJ, but he is no longer leading the weaponization working group. Several MAGA DOJ officials are being targeted internally at the DOJ. There’s an effort to push many out. Martin not running this is a major blow to MAGA.

• @WallStEngine

• TERADYNE $TER Q4'25 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.083B (Est. $969.33M) ; +44% YoY, +41% QoQ Adj. EPS: $1.80 (Est. $1.36) Semiconductor Test Rev: $883M (Est. $786M) Product Test Revenue: $110M Robotics Revenue: $89M Q1'26 Guidance: Revenue: $1.15B–$1.25B (Est. $942.3B) Adj. EPS: $1.89–$2.25 (Est. $1.25) Other Metrics: FY25 Revenue: $3.19B; +13% YoY.

• @OcrazioCornPop

• NEW: The House Freedom Fighters are standing strong: NO MORE DEBT SPENDING BILLS without the SAVE Act attached. They should hold the line and shut down the government for as long as necessary to force a floor vote on this critical bill. A prolonged shutdown would reduce the national debt, allow President Trump to permanently fire more unnecessary federal employees, and finally deliver elections with true integrity and fairness by requiring proof of U.S. citizenship to vote. These are the 35 courageous House Republicans who signed the letter demanding Senate leadership bypass committee and bring the SAVE Act to a floor vote. IS YOUR REP ON THE LIST? Brandon Gill (TX) Derek Schmidt Keith Self (TX) Josh Brecheen Eli Crane (AZ) Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (GA) John W. Rose (TN) Aaron Bean (FL) Wesley Hunt (TX) Andrew S. Clyde (GA) August Pfluger (TX) Lance Gooden (TX) Ronny L. Jackson (TX) Paul A. Gosar (AZ) Thomas Massie (KY) Adrian Smith (NE) Barry Moore (AL) Michael Cloud (TX) Mark Alford (MO) Michael Rulli Tim Burchett (TN) John J. McGuire III (VA) Troy Nehls (TX) William R. Timmons (SC) Kat Cammack (FL) Mary E. Miller (IL) Randy Fine (FL) Ryan Zinke (MT) Diana Harshbarger (TN) Gary Palmer (AL) Riley Moore (WV) Mike Kennedy (UT) Mark Harris (NC) Dusty Johnson (SD) Cory Mills (FL).
• BREAKING: Kash Patel stated under oath to John Kennedy (R-LA) that there was "NO CREDIBLE INFORMATION" Jeffrey Epstein trafficked minors to ANYONE besides himself. Then came the 3.5 MILLION pages of Epstein files, thanks to
  @RepThomasMassie's relentless efforts. Victim statements, draft indictments, & FBI memos show trafficking & sharing of minors with others. DID KASH NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THIS INFORMATION? ARE YOU GOING TO FOLLOW UP,
  @JohnKennedyLA? (video) 

• @BasedMikeLee

• If ID checks are “Jim Crow,” then so are Democratic National Conventions, where delegates are required to produce ID to get in! So are the following institutions (among many others): • Labor Union Conventions • The Grammys • The Oscars • The Emmys • Banks • Pharmacies • Hospitals • Airports • Hotels • Gun Shops • Casinos • Schools • Social Security • DMVs • Casinos • Employers IDs prevent fraud in finance, health, the Democratic Party, and so much more Voter ID does the same for elections.

• @NicHulscher

• Bill Gates: 1. Allegedly got an STD from a hooker and then tried to secretly drug his wife with antibiotics so she wouldn't know (Epstein files). 2. Seeks to reduce the global population by 10-15% using vaccines (2010 TED Talk). 3. Views India as a ‘laboratory’ for experimental drugs. 4. Funds the development of permanent quantum dot implants for vaccine passports. 5. Laughs uncontrollably while warning about bioterror attacks. 6. Funds H5N1 bird flu gain-of-function experiments. 7. Sponsors illicit biolabs in Africa. 8. Funds self-assembling microcrystal anti-fertility Implants.

• @Liz_churchill10

• Oh. My. God. “Preparing for Pandemics…” “Let's discuss next steps, for example how to officially involve the WHO and CDC…” “I hope we can pull this off…” (pic)
• According to the Epstein Files…Satanists have captured every Industry and Entity in our lives. (video) 

• @mattvanswol

• #BREAKING: My friend, @DataRepublican has just uncovered that hundreds of people who have been supporting the anti-ICE groups in North Carolina... ...ARE TEACHERS, CITY COUNCIL MEMBERS, AND SCHOOL BOARD MEMBERS, AND EVEN MAYORS OF MAJOR CITIES WHAT IS GOING ON?!!!!!!!!!!

• @RapidResponse47

• NEW POLL: 73% say coming here illegally is breaking the law. 61% support deporting illegals. 58% oppose defunding ICE. 54% support ICE enforcing our immigration laws.

• @JayTC53

• NEW! Epstein Files Bombshell! JANE FONDA & ROBERT DE NIRO in emails. Two of the biggest Trump haters appear to be best friends with Jeffery Epstein. These emails detail planned handouts with Jeffery Epstein, Jane Fonda, Robert De Niro and Peggy Siegel. They had a "100% Jew night" "media elite" and "once the money is paid". (pic)

• @ElonMusk

• Truly insane levels of fraud! 18% of home healthcare billing nationwide is coming from one county in California … (video) 

• @Heatherc_77

• Epstein Files THIS IS HUGE. The individual who anonymously posted on 4Chan the morning of Epstein’s death, August 10, 2019 claiming he witnessed weird happenings at the prison before Epstein’s death has been identified in the Epstein files. Roberto Grijalva, an officer at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York has been identified as the anonymous prison employee who posted on 4Chan claiming Epstein left his cell Friday evening shackled in a medical wheelchair while at the same time an unauthorized trip van arrived at the prison, which he believes took Epstein away the night BEFORE news broke of his death. (pic)

• @sayerjigmi

• The DOJ just released thousands of pages of Epstein files. And buried inside them may be one of the biggest bombshells no one is talking about: The blueprint for a 20-year financial architecture designed to turn pandemics into a profit center. Offshore vaccine funds. Pandemic reinsurance triggers. Donor-advised fund structures designed to profit under the cover of charity. Simulation programs. Career pipelines into pharma and the World Economic Forum. All built years before COVID-19. All running through Gates, JPMorgan, and Epstein. We now have the documents.

• @annvandersteel

• GEO-ENGINEERING ALERT!! Permaculture Farming Expert Billy Bond reports that Dr. Wil Spencer tested the snow from the last storm. Region-wide results are alarming. (See image) Synthetic viral agents. Heavy metals. Radioactive isotopes. Strontium. Barium. Aluminum. Cadmium. Mercury. These numbers should be near ZERO in a clean environment. Every piece of land Billy Bond remediated tests in the single digits. This is stratospheric aerosol injection. This is not normal. This demands Trump to act immediately!

• @DC_Draino

• Ah yes, another massive Trump hater George Clooney was in the Epstein Files referencing “interesting girls” they encountered in Europe. Almost every loud, major Hollywood voice who has bashed Trump seems to have been friends with Epstein. (pic)

• @IanJaeger29

• Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin voted with all the Democrats to continue funding Welfare programs for non citizens. Unacceptable.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%. 
• Gold 4,811.7 USD/t oz. +3.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.7 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.