Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Crypto Plunge, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 +2.4%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.1 +1.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 128.56 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.0 -.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.0 -15.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 +11.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +.4 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(273 of 500 reporting) +14.4% +.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.19 +.01:  Growth Rate +17.8% unch., P/E 21.5 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.71% -10.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +21.4% +2.5 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 499.28 +.49: Growth Rate +21.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 73.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 166.8 -.9% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.2% +1.9 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% -8.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.33 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 58.1% (-17.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.3%(+3,4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.3% 2) Alt Energy -4.9% 3) Software -4.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OTF, TPG, TEX, TEAM, AFRM, APP, RL, SHEL, STR, GBDC, SSTK, ROK, RBRK, REXR, MORN, HG, KKR, BX, HP, AGI, FDS, CRWD, ALNY, NOW, GLOB, FDS, HZO, COLM, VOD, PLTR, INOD, U, NWG, CCI, TRI, HUBS, STE, BLSH, MEOH, CCI, FA, SPOT, NVO, VRNS, MNDY, QCOM, TECX, ELF, SMCI, MAZE, ERO, HOOD, BBVA, ARES, FTRE, AAMI, ROKU, EMBC, SHOO, UTI, HII, ELE, IQV, CMI, CMP, MUSA, MBUU, CPNG, NVCR, KMPR, GLXY, BBIO, CCCX, PSLV, OMCL, MTRX, MSTR, HUT, MMS, SCZM, FMC, GOOS, EL, RAL and FLNC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) RSP 3) XLP 4) CARR 5) KGS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EL 2) PTON 3) FMC 4) GENI 5) RAL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XBI 4) KRE 5) SIL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.0% 2) Construction +.7% 3) Road & Rail +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PSNY, FORM, PAHC, SITM, MCK, ROAD, KLIC, LBRX, ENSG, IDCC, RRX, BLBD, ATEN, CPAY, AXTI, TW, SPB, ITT, ORN, CAH, KGS, ALGN, ARM, CLS, SIRI, HSY, ASX, EYPT, COR, OHI, WMS, TSEM, PATK, CAMT, RMR, SONO, LASR, GFF, XPO, TENB, DVA, CNTA, SBRA, CRUS, VIAV, GILT, VRE, ZGN, MRCY, YUMC, FN, AXIA, BMY, ALL, ZTO, OSW, AFL, OSW, GSK, UPWK, PNTG, LI, SWKS, ALL, DK, MNSO, MMYT, GL, CI, PTC, UPWK, MKSI, EHC, AROC, BOOT, THR, BDC, CDP and HMN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) JETS 3) FMC 4) STEX 5) BTDR 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MCK 2) PAHC 3) FORM 4) KLIC 5) PSNY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLE 3) GDX 4) IBB 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AER)/3.40
• (AN)/4.85
• (BIIB)/1.63
• (CG)/1.00
• (CBOE)/2.94
• (CNC)/-1.22
• (NWL)/.18
• (PM)/1.70
• (PIPR)/4.74
• (PAA)/.40
• (UAA)/-.01 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.4 in Jan.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Feb. is estimated +4.0% versus expectations for a +4.0% gain in Jan.  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Dec. is estimated to rise to $8.0B vs. $4.229B in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +43.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -.5
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 35.7% of Issues Advancing, 62.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +70.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$96.8M
  
• 146 New 52-Week Highs, 79 New Lows
• 67.0% (-2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.6 -1.5

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% unch.
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% unch.
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 50.0% -6.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.1 -2.6%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 518.75 +17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.0 -1.5%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 135.9 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 35.0 (FEAR) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 18.7 +6.7%
  
• Vix 20.4 +9.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 +3.3%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• Iran FM Says Nuclear Talks With US Still On For Oman, Contradicting Earlier Reports.
• Major Medical Group Advises Against Gender Procedures On Children.
• "Worst Day For Momentum Since 2022": Wall Street's Top Traders Explain Why Everything Suddenly Blew Up.
• Silver down 15% in the past 100 minutes.
• Vance To Lead Sweeping Anti-Fraud Task Force Investigating California.
• Bill Gates to Address CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houson. Hey @CERAWeek can you hold this year's conference at the Zorro Ranch? (pic)    
• SCOOP : Brad Karp to step down as Paul Weiss chair after Epstein revelations. He will be replaced by star dealmaker Scott Barshay.
• The Jeffrey Epstein timeline. (video)  
• DHS Reports More Than 180 Vehicle Attacks On Law Enforcement.
• Ken Griffin Torches Trump Over 'Distasteful Favoritism' And Conflicts Of Interest, Opens Door To Political Run.  
• "You'd Be Justified In Shooting": Rep. Jerry Nadler Triggers Outcry Over Violent Rhetoric Against ICE.
• "Power up America" stocks (IPP, nuclear, gas even coal) should be busting all time highs if this has a snowball's chance in hell of ever coming true.
• "Vicious Moves": Momo Meltdown As SaaSpocalypse Spreads; Crypto Dumps, Dollar Jumps.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Alphabet capex plans spook investors, while AMD has a brutal day in markets.
• Alphabet resets the bar for AI infrastructure spending.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Ciena returns to S&P 500 after getting booted 17 years ago.
• Asia-Pacific market set to mostly fall as tech sell-off continues.
• S&P 500 futures inch higher after latest earnings; traders weigh Alphabet results: Live updates.
• Broadcom, Nvidia shares rise on surging Google capital expenditures for AI.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Qualcomm, E.l.f. Beauty, Boot Barn & more.      
• Top software analyst says industry sell-off is a buying opportunity — but be selective. 

• @TheTranscript 

• Alphabet CEO: AI is expanding query types and driving growth without cannibalizing search usage. "I think AI is expanding the type of queries people do with Google overall...and we haven't seen any evidence of cannibalization there."
• Alphabet CEO was asked what keeps them awake at night currently: "I think specifically at this moment, maybe the top question is definitely around compute capacity, all the constraints. Be it power, land, supply chain constraints, how do you ramp up to meet this extraordinary demand for this moment, get our investments right for the long term, and do it all in a way that we are driving efficiencies and doing it in a world-class way".
• Alphabet CEO expects supply constraints to persist to the end of 2026: "The demand we are seeing across the board, across our services...is exceptionally strong. And so I do expect to go through the year in a supply-constrained way." 
• Alphabet CFO in justifying the capex ramp-up: "The investment we have been making in AI are already translating into strong performance across the business as you've seen in our financial results. Our successful execution, coupled with strong performance, reinforces our conviction to make the investments required to further capitalize on the AI opportunity." 

• @MarioNawful

• EPSTEIN FILES CONFIRM TUNNELS EXISTED UNDER HIS PROPERTIES. Two separate documents now confirm what was long dismissed as conspiracy theory. A 2009 email references $105,500 paid to "the team that added tunnels and office below the main house." A 2018 email from publicist Peggy Siegal casually asks: "Staff still sleeping in the tunnels? Retrieved all the furniture out of the ocean?" Casually. Like asking about the weather. The tunnels were apparently so well known in Epstein's circle that people joked about them in birthday emails.
• This is sick and needs to be unredacted... (pic)

• @LaraLogan

• WHAT THE HELL DOES THIS MEAN? “I am so happy that I did not kill anybody”???? “my perspective of life has changed somehow”????? It is astonishing that NO ONE has been prosecuted. (pic) 

• @ElonMusk

• By passing this one act, the GOP will save the republic AND rescue the GOP. If they fail, we all fail. 80% off all Americans want this - you need ID for everything except voting. There is only one reason not to pass this and we all know what it is. GOP save the republic, save the Republican Party from itself. PASS THE SAVE ACT. It must be done or democracy is dead.

• @RenzTom

• “ANYTHING THAT DEPICTS IMAGES OF DEATH PHYSICAL ABUSE OR INJURY NOT PRODUCED”. US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche saying they are excluded abuse and death. They weren’t just sexually abusing children, they were killing them, and the US government is still hiding it. I guess we know what’s in the missing 3 million pages now. (video)
• I guess we will see about Kash being done with the Epstein files… I thought he said he was done a while back. For my part, I’ll quit talking about it and quit pushing for accountability when every single one of these elitist child rapists, kidnappers, and murderers is in jail. You cannot MAGA with a two-tiered justice system, and you cannot MAGA when child rape is not prosecuted. Kash and the rest of the crooked Bondi DOJ can quit doing their job, and we can quit supporting them… because no real MAGA can support someone who is okay with child rape. (video)
• President @realDonaldTrump - this is NOT MAGA, NOT accountability, and NOT what I voted for. The DOJ is irreparably broken, and until you fire the leadership and replace it with people who actually want to do the job and know how to do it right, we will continue to see nothing happen. We know you are leading the charge on election fraud, and I understand we will see action there, but that is not enough. Epstein child rapists, NGOs stealing billions, pharma fraud and murder, illegal alien trafficking networks, election fraud networks, and other major crimes simply have to be prosecuted if we want to save our country. Accountability on these issues is a core reason we voted for you. (video) 

• @Liz_Churchill10

• “We’ll meet at Jeffrey's home on E 71st..yes…?” What do Bill Gates, Jeffrey Epstein, David Wolfe, Dr. Fauci and Hunter Biden have in common? Biological Labs… (video)

• @TheSCIF

• All of these mainstream media reporters constantly wrote articles declaring pizzagate was fake. Coincidentally, all of these same reporters were arrested and charged for rap*ng and sexually abusing children. Some of the victims were toddlers. There are NO coincidences. (pic)

• @Timburchett

• More proof of paid protestors.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Bill Gates says a one world surveillance state is necessary to prevent the next pandemic. Gates says that “constant surveillance” is the key to staying safe, saying it allows authorities to watch everything and contain a pandemic before it breaks out. “The world hasn’t come together yet to create that surveillance system.” “When it does breakout we need to come up with drugs and vaccines.” (video)
• Kash Patel just declared he’s done with the Epstein files, said he’s part of the most transparent administration, and has no regrets about how it was handled. (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• NEW: John Thune (R-SD) just FOLDED on 'The SAVE Act'. Thune says a talking filibuster would "tie up the floor" and there are "other priorities." 80% of Americans (including 76% BLACK voters) want citizenship proof to vote. This was OUR #1 MAGA MANDATE from the 2024 election! WHAT IS YOUR MESSAGE FOR
  @LeaderJohnThune? CALL: (202) 224-2321 DEMAND Thune allow standing filibuster & PASS THE SAVE ACT! (video)

• @BowesChay

• In August 2019, only hours after Epstein was found dead in his "high security" prison cell, then Attorney General William Barr announced he'd killed himself? No investigation, but the premature statement was made. Interestingly, Bill Barr's father, Donald Barr, just so happened to be the headmaster of the exclusive Dalton School, who inexplicably, hired Epstein to teach there in the 1970s, despite his complete lack of a college degree? And it gets better, before becoming Attorney General, Barr worked for Kirkland & Ellis, the very law firm that represented Epstein during his 2008 Florida plea deal. Dont forget, Bill Barr is also a former CIA "employee" and a protege of the Bush family, whose members also feature in the Epstein files. (video)

• @sayerjigmi

• Ever wonder how a "pandemic response" worth hundreds of billions appeared fully formed in 2020 — with the vaccines, the surveillance, the financing, the governance all ready to go? Buried in the Epstein files is a 14-page JPMorgan collaborative proposal with the Gates Foundation called PROJECT MOLECULE. It proposed a permanent, privately governed, transnational vehicle — linking the Gates Foundation, offshore entities, billionaire committees, and $150 million in biological interventions: vaccines, surveillance networks, and disease eradication campaigns across sovereign nations. Not leaked. Disclosed under federal legal process. Three sets of Bates stamps. In Part I, I showed you the emails — Epstein coaching JPMorgan and Gates on the design. Today I'll show you what those emails produced. Here's what they built — and who was at the table. (thread)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW!! Minneapolis pre-prints ballots and the Minnesota Secretary of State holds election certification until they know how many ballots they need to run through to keep the state Democrat. “That they are pre-printing these ballots and Minneapolis is also always the last to report because the statewide elections are all stolen in Minneapolis. (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• ATTENTION: JD Vance said something @LeaderJohnThune needs to hear about the SAVE Act: "We want the sovereignty to be with the people who cast the ballots, and that's why we have to get the SAVE Act passed." GET IT DONE THUNE!
• How expected is it to see Johnson crumpling his MAGA hat in his hands as he speaks in the Oval Office with Trump on the gov't funding bill signing. Make no mistake about Mike Johnson, he's NOT an ally. Over the last year, he and Thune have made it clear. If they were allies, the SAVE Act would've already been on Trump's desk. Disgusting charade that every American sees right through. (video)

• @drawandstrike

• UNDERSTAND? UNDERSTAND WHAT SHE'S EXPLAINING TO YOU HERE? MCCONNEL AND ALL THE UNIPARTY HAVE BEEN **LYING TO YOU** FOR YEARS CLAIMING THE 60 VOTE CEILING IS UNBREAKABLE WITHOUT A RULES CHANGE. They've literally been SITTING on all this pro-Trump/America First legislation claiming they can't pass it with less than 60 votes UNLESS they nuke the regular filibuster. THEY'VE BEEN PLAYING YOU, AMERICA.

• @TheChiefNerd

• ROGAN: “One of the weirder things about these [Epstein] files is there's some stuff in there … that was like George W. Bush was involved in ritual sacrifice … What do you think that stuff is?” BENZ: “What I'll say is this is a bad week to be a total Pizzagate denialist.” (video)

• @VoicesUnheard

• Once CBDCs are rolled out, you can kiss freedom goodbye. The surveillance grid is being built RIGHT NOW - AI monitoring, FLOCK cameras, digital IDs, speech policing. People keep saying “that would never happen in America”… yet it already is. A Miami mayor literally sent police to a woman’s home over a Facebook post - using YOUR tax dollars.

• @RealCandanceO

• DEFENSE REVEALS THAT GUN & SCREWDRIVER "DNA EVIDENCE" IN CHARLIE KIRK ASSASSINATION IS MIXED FROM 5 DIFFERENT PEOPLE. During the Tyler Robinson hearing on replacing the prosecution, prosecutors called a lead agent who claimed DNA evidence was from Tyler Robinson. HOWEVER the agent decided TO NOT MENTION that the DNA evidence they collected was a mixture of 5 DIFFERENT PEOPLE'S DNA. What is going on here!? People who watch my show knew this months ago. They found five sets of prints on the gun. Every piece of the official story is ridiculous. (video)

• @seanmdav

• Senate Republicans refuse to force standing filibusters, which would lead to bills passing with only 51 votes, because it would condition their own voters to actually getting the laws they were promised enacted into law. Can’t have that, now can we. Second, such a process would expose the 10-15 most worthless Republicans who would vote against these bills, showing that even with a majority, Republicans somehow never have a majority. As a result, they use the 60-vote threshold as a handy excuse for their own refusal to ever do anything they promise. They always have the time and the votes to shovel your money to Ukraine or to carve out new tax loopholes for their corporate lobbyist friends. 

• @themarketswork

• The FBI never executed a physical search or raid on Epstein’s Zorro Ranch in New Mexico. Let that sink in.

• @RealLindelTV

• GRASSLEY IGNORES SAVE ACT QUESTION. Our reporter,
  @alisonintheknow, asked Senator @ChuckGrassley a simple question: “Should the SAVE Act get to the floor for a vote?” He just kept walking. (video)

• @HealthRanger

• Epstein won the LOTTERY multiple times for his Zorro Ranch near Mexican border, where the sex trafficking was. That it’s impossible he won randomly. It was a set up to funnel... Told ya: The lotto is rigged. Winners are chosen by the CIA to fund illicit operators.

• @realmflynnJR

• I’ve seen this floating around but couldn’t help wanting to repost… The American public will not put up with our society accepting abusers and rapists of our children getting away w their crimes. And you’ll NEVER convince me big name, high profile figures are not involved. (pic)

• @chrismartenson 

• The Epstein files reveal that the Event 201/Covid pandemic response was all planned, looped through JPMorgan, and designed to turn "pandemics" into multi-trillion-dollar profit centers. Let's face it, we don't have a bad human problem; we have a demon problem.

• @DocAhmadMalik

• Whatever comes out of the Epstein files, one thing people need to understand is this: the machinery and the people involved are still intact. The sex trafficking, the child trafficking, the rape, abuse, cannibalism, ritual human sacrifice, blackmail, all of it and more. And the people who commit these crimes are still doing it today, as we speak. And none of them are being arrested. Why? Because it involves almost everyone in power.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -.256 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
• Gold 4,889.2 USD/t oz. -1.24%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.23 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.2 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.26% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.63% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.25%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.02%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.