Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Financial/Retail Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.4 +.9%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 -6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 +.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 125.5 +.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.5 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.6 +.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(317 of 500 reporting) +13.2% +4.9 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.65 +.07:  Growth Rate +18.0% unch., P/E 21.9 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 501.48 +.63: Growth Rate +22.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.6 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 69.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 170.1 -.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.7% +1.0 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% -.5 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.39 -2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 58.8% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.1%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Took profits in some financial sector longs and added transport sector longs
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) I-Banking -3.2% 2) Coal -2.0% 3) Nuclear -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CINF, SAIA, MNDY, LTM, TSEM, WCC, SF, BP, OXLC, INCY, MCO, HTFL, XYL, AMP, RJF, VAL, SPGI, HIMS, LPLA, MEDP, AMTM, UPWK, TECX, GSHD, JMIA, BDX and GILT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KD 2) BAM 3) UPST 4) UPWK 5) WMB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LVWR 2) GT 3) LPLA 4) AGL 5) GILT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IBB 2) XLK 3) KWEB 4) XLC 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +2.7% 2) Utilities +2.1% 3) Video Gaming +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

•  EVMN, NKTR, ICHR, LMRI, UNF, SPOT, DDOG, GCMG, KD, UCTT, PHG, CCCX, CRDO, AMSC, RACE, ENTG, XIFR, FIG, MAS, MAR, HSAI, RNG, TPL, HAS, SHOP, MESO, WOLF, OMCL, DGX, CE, MDB, KT, ARMK, VNET, FBIN, GPRE, TENB, HSHP, FISV, WHR, ESI, CCSI, MMYT, WNC, U, RDDT, NCLH, GWRE, SSTK, ON, VST, NET, SNOW, SKWD, AFRM, MMS, OSCR, INTA, BMRN, OLED, DD, ECL, QLYS, CC, H, LEVI, SE, CSL, ORN, MCHP, ORCL, LBRDK, TTWO, BL, RYAN, UPST, STM, ACM, BMI, TDC, TOST, CNI, STM, LSCC, TOST, FLNC, MTRX, UDR, ARM, TMHC, BYRN, BAND, AZN and PODD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ASAN 2) MDLN 3) KD 4) Z 5) DVA 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPOT 2) DDOG 3) UNF 4) LUXE 5) CRDO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) IGV 4) XLP 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BWA)/1.19
• (GNRC)/1.77
• (HLT)/2.02
• (HUM)/-4.00
• (KHC)/.61
• (MLM)/4.78
• (NTES)/14.17
• (R)/3.57
• (SN)/1.80
• (SHOP)/.51
• (THC)/.4.07
• (TEX)/1.11
• (TMUS)/2.05
• (VRT)/1.29 
• (TSEM)/.68
• (PAG)/3.09 

After the Close: 

• (ALB)/-.42
• (APP)/2.95
• (CSCO)/1.02
• (CGNX)/.22
• (CPA)/4.39
• (CW)/3.69
• (HUBS)/2.99
• (MCD)/3.04
• (NBR)/-1.87
• (NE)/.17
• (PPC)/.75
• (PRI)/5.68
• (VKTX)/-.90

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Jan. is estimated to rise to 68K versus 50K in Dec.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• The Unemployment Rate for Jan. is estimated at 4.4% versus 4.4% in Dec.
• Final Benchmark Payrolls revision for 2025.

10:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -204,000 barrels versus a -3,455,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to rise by +638,750 barrels versus a +685,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,085,000 barrels versus a -5,553,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a -.4% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Deficit for Jan. is estimated at -$94.4B versus -$144.7B in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thommson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Feb., Wolfe Research Auto/Auto Tech/Semi Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference, (FDX) investor day and the BofA Financial Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +.8
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 66.9% of Issues Advancing, 31.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.07 -33.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$49.4M
  
• 262 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 69.5% (+1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 69.2 +2.1

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Another US government shutdown by February 14th? 74.0% -2.0 percentage points 
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% unch.
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 53.0% -3.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 103.3 +.1%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 481.5 +2.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.9 +.04%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 139.4 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -8.1%
  
• Vix 17.3 -.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• As the US and Iran plan for another round of talks aimed at de-escalation, Israel’s Netanyahu plans to meet with Trump — and the threat of regional war continues to loom. (video) 
• Criminals in Southeast Asia are harnessing inexpensive AI tools to target bigger pools of potential victims at high speed, keeping scam centers humming even as governments try and crack down, senior officials at Interpol say. 
• Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pacified colleagues casting around for someone to replace him — for now. 
• Billionaire Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg is planning to buy a property in the Miami area, according to a source, joining a roster of ultra-wealthy individuals expanding their footprints in South Florida.
• President Donald Trump said his pick to lead the Federal Reserve can stoke the economy to grow at a rate of 15%
  .
• The US has quietly built up its biggest stockpile of copper in decades, distorting flows of the red metal to the rest of the world
  . 
• A steadily building wall of maturing property debt in the US is finally letting up as the outlook for commercial real estate improves
  .
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets
  .
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• *TRUMP OPPOSED TO ISRAEL ANNEXING WEST BANK: AXIOS.
• Google Versus China's Cyber Weapon.
• Iran Offers To Dilute Enriched Uranium If US Lifts All The Sanctions.
• TARGET CUTS ABOUT 500 JOBS IN DISTRIBUTION CENTERS: CNBC. TARGET TO START TESTING CONTEXTUAL ADS ON CHATGPT WEBSITE THIS MONTH WITH OPENAI. 
• Jump Trading Eyes Kalshi, Polymarket Stakes As Institutional Interest Grows: Report.
• Feds Have Charged 158 Anti-ICE Agitators With Federal Crimes In Minnesota.
• Will Bombshells Drop At Tuesday's DC Hearing On Foreign Influence In America's NGOs.
• *Trump to Repeal Finding That Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Endanger Public Health, Sources Say -- WSJ. 
• Who's Next... What's Next...?.
• Not Clear Whether Vaccines Cause Autism, Needs More Research; NIH Director Says. 
• *TRUMP-XI SUMMIT SET FOR FIRST WEEK OF APRIL: POLITICO. 
• Seattle & Sanae Super-Wins Spark 'Buy Everything' Day Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week.    

• @CNBC

• Trump bashed Epstein to Palm Beach police during first investigation, called Maxwell 'evil,' record shows. 
• CNBC Daily Open: Takaichi and the AI trade in focus this week.    
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Japan's Nikkei 225 set to continue post election rally as Asian markets on course to open higher.
• Stock futures are little changed after Dow hits new record: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ON Semiconductor, Upwork, Chegg and more.
• Three software earnings reports this week could trigger a bounce, says Jay Woods. 

• @MarioNawful

• EPSTEIN'S PRISON NOTES SURE LOOK A LOT LIKE AN ESCAPE PLAN... Handwritten notes found in Jeffrey Epstein's cell have been translated, and the contents are raising eyebrows. The scribbled pages reference "red notice" (Interpol's fugitive alert), potential destinations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria, and logistics involving visas, banks, and guards. One page sketches what appears to be a private airport with the name "Brad" written on top. Another simply states "jail out = 10." He also noted three things: blankets, AVR (the cameras that conveniently failed), and METI (medical transport). The notes were written in multiple ink colors, meaning he returned to add details over time. Whether escape or fantasy, Epstein was clearly planning something. The official suicide narrative keeps getting harder to believe.
• 3.5-hour audio recording leaked: Epstein and former Israeli PM Ehud Barak discussing Tony Blair getting paid "gigantic" consulting sums, mass immigration to Israel, and business schemes. Barak told Epstein he wanted another million Russian immigrants to offset Arab population growth, saying Israel could "control the quality" of immigrants, "unlike our forefathers who brought people from North Africa." He proposed breaking the Orthodox rabbinate's monopoly and opening "gates for massive conversion into Judaism." They discussed Palantir, defense tech, oil deals, and how former leaders "make money" after leaving office. Barak's name appears 4,000+ times in the Epstein files. They met at least 30 times between 2013-2017. The recording is real. The relationship was deep. And it lasted years after Epstein's conviction.

• @yoalexrapz

• There is something really freaking spooky going on at the EPA and I refuse to let the American people be gaslit into thinking they’re upholding the MAHA agenda in any way when they CONTINUOUSLY prove they are not. Very WEIRD we have MAHA leaders pretending otherwise. Who is being paid and by who?

• @GenFlynn

• Pure Demons! They pretend to be Jesus and Jesus rapes the child. So that it separates them from Jesus and His love. Things can’t get any worse for me…this is so heartbreaking. The death penalty is not good enough for these people. They would probably enjoy the torture. @realDonaldTrump Sir, you need to take this very seriously. No games. These demons must be held accountable. (pic)
• A famous American General once said, The only things worth counting on are people you can count on…so never waste a minute worrying about people who don’t like you or aren’t helping you make a difference in your life. Instead focus on people who will help you make a difference. I say this because something is happening in our country, and most of us don’t fully understand it. The world feels upside down. Every day brings more confusion, more lies, more fear. We’re told who to trust, who to doubt, and who to ignore, but how are we supposed to know who is telling the truth? The institutions we were taught to rely on—our government, the media, the courts, even big corporations—feel broken. Allies turn into enemies overnight. Yesterday’s heroes are today’s villains. Stability feels like it’s slipping through our fingers. So many are left scared, frustrated, and searching for answers that don’t come. We want brutal honesty. We want safety. We want a future for our families. Instead, we get manipulation, deception, and chaos. Too many of the wrong people have been protected for far too long...

• @RenzTom

• Joe Biden used executive orders to classify “climate change” as a national security issue. He did this specifically so he could get the deep state military involved so the program would be hard to stop. This seems to have continued to this day which is why we cannot FOIA the information.

• @TheSCIF

• The WikiLeaks email exposing John Podesta saying that an example should be made out of the suspected leaker of the DNC emails and then not too long after, Seth Rich, the suspected leaker is murdered, adds even more fuel to the fire alleging Podesta and Hillary were involved.
• Oprah's mentor and fraudulent "spiritual healer," 77 year-old, Joao Teixeira de Faria, aka "John of God," was also mentioned in the Epstein files for farming babies and selling them on the black market. He was accused of abusing over 600 women and children. He would abuse and impregnate women and children, use them as sex slaves, sell their babies, and mud*r them after. 

• @realmelanieking

• YOU ARE NOT ANGRY ENOUGH! An Epstein email exchange where they talk about Jesus returning and a little girl praying in bed about Jesus saving her life. They are literal demons. I would give anything to hug that baby right now. Like I said, this is a spiritual battle. (pic)

• @ScottPresler

• BREAKING. Congresswoman @RepLuna & 12 other members of the House wrote a letter to Senator Thune urging him to bring the SAVE America Act to the floor for debate, thereby invoking the standing filibuster. Any Senators against it must explain to the American people why they are against voter ID & proof of citizenship. “If Senators wish to block a bill that protects the integrity of the ballot, they should be required to do so openly, on the Senate floor, and in real time.” Thank you, Congressmen Luna, Collins, Cloud, Steube, Zinke, Fry, Boebert, Van Drew, James, Fine, McGuire, Rose, & Self. (pic)

• @KariLake

• When things heat-up with real news, like the revelation of fraud and corruption that threaten the status-quo, a trick of the fake news is to create hype around distraction stories to give the fake news an excuse not to cover the real news. They then go wall-to-wall with distraction news.

• @BBMagaMom

• Bill Gates is what happens when a software guy with a God complex decides the problem with the world isn’t buggy code….it’s people. This man couldn’t even keep Windows from crashing, but we’re supposed to trust him with global health, food systems, population numbers, and the future of humanity. He calls it “philanthropy.” Funny how that philanthropy always involves control, experiments, and telling other people how many of them should exist, never HIM!!! There’s something deeply unsettling about a billionaire who talks about human beings like line items to be optimized. Not healed. Not helped. Reduced.

• @toddstarnes

• Has anyone seen Education Secretary Linda McMahon? Is she doing another segment on Fox News? Maybe she ought to consider doing her job. Thousands of taxpayer-funded schools are weaponizing students and unleashing them on the streets of major cities and towns. They have turned their classrooms into indoctrination camps - filling the minds of the kids with anti-America propaganda. Every school that allowed students to walk out should have their federal tax money revoked - immediately.

• @GuntherEagleman

• SCOTT JENNINGS NAILS IT! “It is my view that we are no longer simply arguing about politics as usual anymore. We're not just disagreeing about tax rates and healthcare plans. We are doing nothing less than fighting for the soul of this nation and the future of the West, and that's what keeps me up at night. The radical left, the enemies of the West, are going after anyone who builds anything, believes anything, or stands for anything. As we speak, there are radicals on the streets of Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and other places, that are making clear that nothing short of violent confrontation and mayhem will satisfy them. Tim Walz himself, the biggest buffoon in American politics, has referred to Minneapolis as the new Fort Sumter. He is openly fantasizing about a new American Civil War. I guess Democrats haven't changed all that much since the 1860s.” - (video)
• BIG WIN FOR AMERICAN WORKERS: President Trump’s tariffs are SPARKING RECORD factory groundbreakings across the USA! (video)

• @WarMonitors

• #BREAKING FBI document found in Epstein files discusses how a decoy dead body was used after Epstein supposedly died.

• @HalaJaber

• Buried in the Epstein files: This sickening 2010 email to Jeffrey Epstein, casually shopping for "little girls" in Riga like meat on a menu. "Happy New Year! Yes, im here... just got my visa... I'll go to the 2B Riga agency tomorrow if you want? I walk around, there are little girls, they have good bodies, but the faces weird and they are not so tall .." Human trafficking reduced to pervert banter, with underage girls judged like cattle. And the sender's name? Redacted. Protected. WHY? These monsters & their recruiters walked free too long. Unredact the names. Name & shame every enabler. NOW. The victims deserve justice, not cover for the powerful. How is this still hidden?
  @TheJusticeDept.

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Tea Leaves: Not only is 'this going to blow wide open,' but Venezuelan engineers who rigged specific U.S. elections will be telling American voters in live testimony under oath which of our politicians they installed, how and when ..

• @ThayzzySmith

• EPSTEIN FILES: If you think it’s absurd to believe that child traffickers exist among the global elite, then ask yourself why Ghislaine Maxwell spoke at the United Nations nine times... Ghislaine Maxwell being invited to speak at the UN. The United Nations. You don’t get in there without a background check. Everyone knew, everyone was part of it. The head of Epstein’s pedophile network speaking at the UN. (video)

• @P_McCulloughMD

• Study Finds 3,625 High-Containment Biolabs Worldwide — 73% Don't Disclose Their Locations or Pathogen Activities. The U.S. houses 47% of global BSL-3 facilities — and 91.6% of countries operating them lack dual-use research oversight, by Nicolas Hulscher, MPH.

• @DiligentDenizen

• FBI REMOVED CAMERA HARD DRIVE FROM JAIL AFTER EPSTEIN 'SUIC1DE' & ERASED ALL OTHER VIDEO FOOTAGE. Newly found documents reveal that the FBI took the only 'working' video camera hard drive & ordered the jail where Epstein d1ed to replace the existing hard drives even though it would destroy any potential video evidence on them. So, if there were any recoverable data on the remaining two hard drives, the FBI made sure that it was destroyed? WHY would they do that?

• @WallStreetApes

• Amelie Zilber tells her 6.4 million followers she is so horrified by what she’s reading in the new Jeffrey Epstein files she’s having a hard time sleeping. She believes we are all severely “under reacting” to what we are learning and should be DEMANDING accountability. (video)

• @scotous_wire

• The RNC asks the Supreme Court to hold that federal law bars counting mail ballots received after Election Day, targeting a Mississippi rule. A favorable decision could upend mail-voting laws nationwide. The case is set for argument on March 23rd.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%. 
• Gold 5,044.8 USD/t oz. -.66%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.02 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.33 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 103.19 +.02%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.19% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.57% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.