Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Consumer Inflation Deceleration, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +720 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/transport/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CNH)/.11
• (ET)/.37
• (FLR)/.34
• (GPC)/1.82
• (ITRI)/2.19
• (LH)/3.94
• (LDOS)/2.61
• (LPX)/-.01
• (MDT)/1.34
• (VMI)/4.96
• (VMC)/2.11 

After the Close: 

• (ANDE)/1.56
• (CDNS)/1.91
• (CZR)/-.15
• (DVN)/.80
• (EQT)/.75
• (FE)/.54
• (HL)/.18
• (LZB)/.59
• (PANW)/.94
• (PBI)/.37
• (RBA)/.98
• (TOL)/2.11 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 8.7 versus 7.7 in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, ADP weekly employment change, Citbank Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference, (RDWR) investor day and the Barclays Industrial Select Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25%. to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%. 
• Gold 4,994.0 USD/t oz. +.93%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.98 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.26 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.0 -1.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.11% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.45% +1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.4 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Less Economic/Earnings Outlook Optimism, Crypto Weakness, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +2.0%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.3 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.8 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.7 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(356 of 500 reporting) +12.5% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.22 +.28:  Growth Rate +18.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.48% -4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 503.08 +.90: Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.4 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 63.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.5 -1.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1% -.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.43 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.0%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +620 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/transport sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.2% 2) Computer Services -4.5% 3) Alt Energy -3.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HIW, JKHY, BXP, PHR, QSR, NICE, QTWO, FVRR, STEP, JBHT, PLMR, CHKP, NMRK, ARMK, CTSH, PLSE, GWW, MAN, SCI, MT, WERN, ODD, PUK, ROKU, LOGI, IQV, SLG, SPOT, KD, CRL, J, FWRD, SHOP, UPST, WCN, HUBG, WCN, TFII, INFY, HOOD, KVYO, EPAM, XYZ, LEU, U, STN, ROL, TDC, JLL, UPWK, UPB, CSCO, TTEK, INSP, TYL, CLF, NP, RBA, CWK, TRIP, GEO, BRKR, EXPD, AEHR, BAX, APP, MICC, LSTR, CHRW, RXO, QDEL and ICLR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVTR 2) AR 3) CWAN 4) GRAB 5) FBTC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ICLR 2) CHRW 3) BAX 4) RXO 5) LSTR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) KRE 3) XLK 4) KWEB 5) GDXJ

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Telecom +2.7% 2) Utilities +2.4% 3) Pharma +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FSLY, CGNX, IPGP, NVCR, MH, CROX, SPHR, LPTH, ZBIO, IRDM, ISSC, EQIX, USFD, ZBRA, MSI, TRN, AKAM, STX, IRM, VKTX, PSIX, WDC, BDC, PFGC, AVBP, SNDK, NKTR, CW, IFF, HWM, SOLS, SGRY, TECX, BBIO, DLR, SLF, SBAC, AMT, FAF, VNT, ETON, LNC, AEP, AWK, CCI, DBD, BUD, CCI, AMG, GTES, DVA, FCN, HNGE, AEE, PEGA, TMUS, HUBS, RYN, LLYVK, MU, EIX, LITE, FTS, ROAD, RNR, LYV, HUM, SLVM, KC and WTW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FSLY 2) XLU 3) NRGV 4) JETS 5) GEO 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FSLY 2) NVCR 3) MSI 4) USFD 5) CGNX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) IGV 3) XBI 4) GRID 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume