Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Less AI Industry Disruption Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.8 +.8%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 +1.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 129.1 +.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.3 +1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.9 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.3 +1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(439 of 500 reporting) +11.9% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.63 +.36:  Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% +4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.59 +1.22: Growth Rate +23.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 27.9 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 -13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 170.6 +1.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.3% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.58 unch.

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 83.8% (+3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 48.9%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/transport/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -1.6% 2) Disk Drives -.5% 3) Video Gaming -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• INFQ, OKE, AIN, SNDK, AS, ODD, OPCH, SKWD, FICO, PRIM, AESI, CIB, CNNE, OFIX, AXGN, KNSA, FMS, EXPD, PLNT, AWI, WHR, ZD, FWRG, XMTR and CECO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UWMC 2) TECH 3) CL 4) UAA 5) CWAN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DDS 2) TNC 3) AS 4) GOSS 5) QURE

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) KRE 3) PLDR 4) PFUT 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.2% 2) Computer Services +2.6% 3) AI/Innovation +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PVLA, IBRX, KEYS, AXTI, GRAL, FRMI, DRS, HRTG, HLX, UCTT, WULF, AEHR, BEAM, CIFR, ORIC, ZETA, FEIM, TRI, HUT, SGHC, FIG, IIPR, VICR, INTA, AMD, TARS, SEDG, SANM, KLAR, HZO, LINC, ALM, PSIX, CEVA, MAMA, GSHD, FTAI, UTI, ERO, MNDY, AMX, VIAV, TDC, RAL, HUBS, FROG, FDS, BCC, KVYO, STAA, CORZ, ALSN, CAR, OIS, RVLV, CLBT, REAL, DHT, ADEA, PKE, U, STEP, XPEV, ESTA, GWRE, ECO, ADTN, ESTC, WTTR, ADTN, HRMY, BKNG, EXPE, ORN, RAMP, ZS, FLYW, GDDY, NCNO, GLW, HSIC, NSP, TENB, F, FORM, HCC, KC, SLDE, PAYC, FRO, CRM, WIX, VRSK, VVX, KKR, TREE, KOF, COF, FWRD, KDP, TEAM and TPL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IOVA 2) SHLS 3) QGEN 4) TUR 5) XHB 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AMD 2) KEYS 3) CLVT 4) PVLA 5) IOVA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) SOXX 3) XLY 4) XBI 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALKS)/.41
• (BLMN)/.24
• (CRCL)/.16
• (DOLE)/.13
• (FSS)/1.07
• (LOW)/1.94
• (OC)/1.36
• (PLAB)/.54
• (TJX)/1.39
• (TPH)/.78
• (UTHR)/7.13 
• (APA)/.64 

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.37
• (BJRI)/.64
• (AIR)/-.29
• (FTAI)/1.24
• (JOBY)/-.22
• (MYRG)/1.87
• (NVDA)/1.53
• (PSTG)/.65
• (METC)-.25
• (CRM)/3.05
• (SNOW)/.27
• (SNPS)/3.56
• (TTD)/.34
• (TKO)/.24
• (URBN)/1.26
• (VECO)/.24
• (ZM)/1.49 

Economic Release 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +251,500 barrels versus a -9,014,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,041,333 barrels versus a -3,213,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,970,500 barrels versus a -4,5656,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated unch. versus a +1.6% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• (SF) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Fed's weekly Balance Sheet report, Susquehanna Tech Conference, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, Gabelli Pump/Valve/Water Systems Symposium, (LHX) investor day, (NDAQ) investor day, (DE) annual meeting, Bernstein TMT Forum and the Bernstein Insights Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.03% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.2 +.2
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 60.7% of Issues Advancing, 36.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .98 -9.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$106.4M
  
• 138 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
• 66.1% (+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.5 +4.2

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 65.0% +10.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% unch.
• US strikes Iran by March 15th 48.0% -2.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.1 +1.8%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 558.25 +16.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.5 +.6%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 135.7 +.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +8.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -32.6%
  
• Vix 19.3 -8.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -6.8%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Gold 5,196.2 USD/t oz. -.56%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 97.9 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.04% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.32% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.13%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.