Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 6,582.7 +1.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 46,504.7 +1.1%

• NASDAQ 21,879.2 +2.1%

• Russell 2000 2,530.0 +1.3%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,132.2 +2.5%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 254.5 +4.7%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 29.2 +.8%

• Wilshire 5000 65,157.4 +1.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,329.7 +1.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,121.4 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 926.3 +1.3%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 247.0 +.6%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,859.7 +2.1%

• Transports 19,088.5 +4.0%

• Utilities 1,174.0 +2.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 106.0 +4.9%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 56.7 +1.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 249.66 -.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 131.37 -.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 598,645 -.1%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 -2.7%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 34 +436

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -24.9 -2.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 233,620 +6.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,002,065 -3.8%

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +6.1%

• OEX Put/Call .62 -1.2%

• ISE Sentiment 89.0 -30.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 +70.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 103.4 +3.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +45.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 24.2 -24.2%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.96 +27.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 25.0 -14.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.05 -4.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.46 -2.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,013.6 -2.4%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  68.5 n/a

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.803 Trillion n/a

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$23.716 Million

• AAII % Bulls 33.6 +4.7%

• AAII % Bears 51.4 +3.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 15.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -1.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 381.0 +5.3%

• Crude Oil 111.4/bbl. +18.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 327.4 +7.1%

• Natural Gas 2.80 -5.8%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 73.9 USD/Megawatt -.7% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour -9.8%
  

• Heating Oil 440.7 -2.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 141.4 (1,000/metric ton) +.64%

• Gold 4,674.2 +6.8%
• Silver 72.70 +6.8%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 169.5 +3.3%

• Copper 560.0 +2.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 407.0 USD/Metric Tonne +5.99%

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 23,475.0 USD/metric tonne +2.7%
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 66.09 -1.3%  

• CME Lumber 599.0 unch.

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,364.4 -1.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 305.0 USD/Short Ton n/a
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 687.5 USD/Short Ton n/a 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.9% -.1 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.8 +3.1 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.9 n/a
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 281.5 -16.0% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 95.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 429.6 -34.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% -10.9 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.05 +1.26:  Growth Rate +21.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 794.55 +7.80: Growth Rate +99.7% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 17.7 +.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.0 +5.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.3 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.4 +.2 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 99.5%(+5.7 percentage points) chance of no change, .5%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 100.0 +.14%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,844.7 +.16%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 66,967.4 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 219.6 -.03%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.63 -.9%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.0 -1.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.30% -13.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.69% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.610 Trillion n/a
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.178 Billion n/a

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.5 -1.3%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 212.6 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 86.0 -10.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.2 -.3%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.0 -1.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 139.8 +1.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.0 +3.5%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 90.7 +7.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.4 -1.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.85 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 112.48 -.36%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.8% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.9% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +3.25% +9.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.24 +5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.75 +1.0 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.0 +1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 63.0 -6.7% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 +1.4%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 164.0 -2.4%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 533.9 -1.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 291.0 +35.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.3 -8.1%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 186.9 -1.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 125.0 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 586.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .56 +4.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,333.8B -2.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,750 -1.4%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.6 +1.2%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.49% +11.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 278,300 -10.4%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.6% +10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +25.0% +18.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $193.2M +51.2%

• Nationwide Gas $4.08/gallon +.10/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,030.0 +.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,287.3/40 ft Box +.4%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,139.6 +1.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 200.0 -18.4%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 138.2 +3.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 282,088 +2.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,360,739 -14.0% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.7 -2.5 points
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 46.0% +2.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +13.9%

• Disk Drives +4.9%
• Networking +4.7%

• Steel +4.3%
  

• Video Gaming +3.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Digital Health -1.9%

• Airlines -2.3%
  

• Energy -2.5%

• Medical Equipment -2.7%
  

• Oil Service -2.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)

• SGML, AAOI, KODK, RLAY, VSAT, SPIR, PENG, PL, LUNR, CHA, GSAT, SBAC, WING, BKSY, FLY, AEHR, VCEL, CAR, FCFS, CWST, SLNO, TH, CTGO, AVTX, KRP and ORKA

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

• LECO, LKQ, DXYZ, EL, HRI, NAVN, BCE, W, ROAD, ARM, GOOS, TSLA, DIN, ARVN, AYI, VITL, CALM, RCI, WIX, KNF, KOD, PBH and ANGO

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Soaring Energy Prices, Rising Inflation Expectations, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +832 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +193 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for March is estimated to fall to 54.9 versus 56.1 in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• (BKNG) 25-1
• (POWL) 3-for-1 

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (COO) annual meeting and the (PATH) business update could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.5 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 50.25 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%. 
• Crude Oil 103.90/bbl. +3.8% 
• Gold 4,720.3 USD/t oz. -1.9%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.39 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.0 +.3%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.36% +4.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.67% +5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.6 +2.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.25%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.88%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.06%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and transportation shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Mid-East War De-Escalation Hopes, Decelerating Inflation Expectations, Technical Buying, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 -3.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.2 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .42 -6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.8 -7.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 187.5 -3.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 76.3 -7.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.6 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.6 +4.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.2 -1.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.4 +3.2 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% -8.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.80 +.21:  Growth Rate +20.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 794.40 +3.50: Growth Rate +99.7% +.9 percentage point, P/E 17.8 +.7 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 +45.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.4 +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.5 euros/megawatt-hour -6.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.8% +.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.9% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.09 -12.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 93.7% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 90.8%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +134 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -3.6% 2) Oil Service -2.0% 3) Software -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APA, LNG, E, MRX, VLO, MICC, DOW, BSM, DEC, EC, FIS, PBR, DVN, INR, PR, FANG, KYN, BKV, YPF, VIPS, EQNR, OXY, CVX, XOM, CNQ, DLO, PM, VITL, CLMT, AORT, ARE, LYB, WING, TALO, KNTK, SM, VG, VET, SD, SSL, EYE, LW, VIST, NBR, COGT, MLTX, APTV, NKE, AXTI, TPB and RH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWG 2) IE 3) VIST 4) SVC 5) WEAT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKE 2) RH 3) FTLF 4) IBRX 5) BYND

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLI 3) XLY 4) XLU 5) PTF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume