Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, SpaceX IPO, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,310 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/.60

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 14.3 versus 19.6 in May. 

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in April.
• Manufacturing Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in April.
• Capacity Utilization for May is estimated to rise to 76.2% versus 76.1% in April. 
• 10:00 am EST
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for June is estimated to fall to 36.0 versus 37.0 in May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Jefferies Power Conference, (DDOG) annual meeting, (DOCN) annual meeting, (CENX) annual meeting, (HUBS) annual meeting and the Truist Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Trump's latest threat to seize Kharg Island, followed by an abrupt reversal, reflects his dilemma: How to end an unpopular war against a stubborn enemy in a volatile region of the world. 
• Investors across Asia have been largely shut out of the world’s largest-ever IPO, forcing them to find creative ways to make bets on SpaceX’s $75 billion global spectacle.
• Billionaires are leaving California for Nevada, angry at attempts to tax them. Some Golden State voters are also fed up.
• A small number of firms are set to net tens of billions of dollars in returns from the SpaceX IPO. 
• Lawmakers and tech firms are suggesting new ways to ensure the public gets a piece of the AI boom. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• BREAKING: Massive fire erupts from a medical supply warehouse that can be seen for miles in Tracy, California. The fire is at the Medline warehouse, one of the largest medical supply distributors, which ships products to hospitals and healthcare facilities across the country. Multiple agencies and firefighters are working to get the blazing building under control, as investigators try to find the cause of the fire.
• Fed Up With Food Delivery App Fees & Tips? Barclays Has Terrific News.
• Middle Schoolers' Reading & Math Scores Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels, US Results Show. 
• *KOREA’S KOSPI EXTENDS GAIN TO 8% AS CHIP STOCKS SURGE. 
• This is correct. The @SECGov just sold out the retail investor so they could move forward with their tokenized Field of Dreams. 
• "It Was Like Two Bucks": Homeless Residents Say They Were Paid To Vote In Los Angeles Mayoral Race. 
• *TRUMP: ENDED WAR WITH IRAN TODAY.
• *TRUMP: TODAY WE SETTLED UP WITH IRAN. *TRUMP ON IRAN: PRETTY MUCH COMPLETED. *TRUMP ON IRAN: WE GOT EVERYTHING WE WANTED.
• Cato Vs Heritage: Should The U.S. Defend Taiwan From Chinese Invasion?
• Hunter Biden says he'd run in 2028 with Gavin Newsom, but only as VP.
• Trump Nominates US Attorney Jay Clayton As Director Of National Intelligence.
• Token prices down 2.8%, lower 8 days in a row.
• Polls Turn Against Netanyahu As Trump Says PM 'May Quit Politics'.
• The intrigue: Netanyahu did not have advanced notice and was caught by surprise when Trump released his initial statement about the deal, according to a source with knowledge.
• Karen Bass' Brother Joins Class-Action Lawsuit Against Karen Bass over LA Wildfires.
• New CFTC Prediction Market Proposal Would Ban War And Terrorism Bets While Allowing Sports Markets.
• Even 'Trust The Election' Pundits Are Suspicious.
• *TRUMP: I UNDERSTAND THAT SUPREME LEADER HAS APPROVED DEAL. *TRUMP: LIFTING BLOCKADE IS PART OF IRAN DEAL.
• TACO Thursday Trumps Hot-flation & ECB Hike, Sending Stocks & Bonds Soaring Ahead Of SPCX Launch.          

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets score big as Iran war nears final whistle and SpaceX takes the field. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street gears up for SpaceX’s historic IPO: Live updates.
• What energy insiders in DC are saying about oil prices and a possible Iran deal.
• President Trump: 'Will probably have a signing for Iran deal, maybe in Europe'.
• Ex-Andreessen Horowitz partner slams his old firm, other VCs for 'political infiltration' around AI.    

• @TheTranscript

• RH CEO: "Nearly 40 years ago, standing at the Brandenburg Gate, a former American president looked out at a divided world and issued a defiant, historic decree: 'Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.' Today, we look at the luxury home industry and ask the same."
  $RH: +0.4% AH.
• Adobe CEO: "Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion in Q2 reflecting strong AI-driven demand across our customer groups and we are raising our full-year fiscal 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS targets on the strength of that performance".
  $ADBE: -6% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Crude Oil 86.76/bbl. -1.1% 
• Gold 4,212.20 USD/t oz. +2.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.11 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 120.9 +.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Plunging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 -2.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 +.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.15 +7.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.7 -.6%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 149.3 -2.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 48.6 -6.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.3 +1.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.4 -3.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.2 +1.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +1.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.11 +.21:  Growth Rate +23.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 908.23 +.76: Growth Rate +75.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.2 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.3 +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.30 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.5% -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% -10.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -10.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.5% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 69.1%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,920 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +346 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +5.9% 2) Defense +4.9% 3) Airlines +4.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VELO, ATEX, VOYG, FLY, MBX, LUNR, ASYS, PICS, CPNG, ELVN, BBAR, NAVN, GRRR, RDW, SUPV, ATRO, UEC, ADPT, KLAC, LRCX, WGS, UCTT, TEO, BMA, TSAT, VPG, CXT, GGAL, LQDA, LOMA, AMAT, NRIX, ALM, TGS, SHAZ, CRESY, CRDO, IDCC, BTDR, SATS, VSH, STM, IREN, DAKT, CMCO, MTRN, FLNC, SVM, FOUR, MRVL, PDFS, ASML, PAM, DXYZ, SEPN, ARQT, UNIT, MAMA, IAG, M, UNIT, MDA, SEPN, MNRO, HNGE, OFRM, BNED, KTB, QXO, INTC, PRE, INTC, CAKE, MT, CIB, HOOD, BROS, ERO, DCO, CEPU, IRDM, IIPR, DQ, MEC, SW, IIPR, CEPU, DCO, ORLA, ASX, EVTC, MMYT, CDE, BAP, AMGN, PLAY, KRUS, PWP, SMCI, GEV, CRNC, AXIA, AZZ, DCTH, AU, AMRX, BFH and CHEF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALB 2) GILD 3) PRMW 4) PAYO 5) WMB 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PPCB 2) KLAC 3) SFIX 4) NAVN 5) SNDK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) ARKK 3) DRAM 4) IGV 5) NASA

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for June is estimated to rise to 46.0 versus 44.8 in May.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for June is estimated to rise to +4.9% versus expectations of a +4.8% gain in May. 

Upcoming Splits

• KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (BBY) annual meeting, (TOST) annual meeting, (REGN) annual meeting and the (FTNT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST