Monday, May 23, 2005

Stocks Finish Higher as Inflation Fears Diminish

Indices
S&P 500 1,193.86 +.39%
DJIA 10,523.56 +.49%
NASDAQ 2,056.65 +.50%
Russell 2000 612.87 +.57%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,777.06 +.42%
S&P Barra Growth 577.95 +.45%
S&P Barra Value 611.40 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 590.55 -.06%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 719.49 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Technology 478.92 +.60%
Transports 3,626.51 +.15%
Utilities 363.23 -.45%
Put/Call .81 -18.18%
NYSE Arms .81 -29.71%
Volatility(VIX) 12.95 -1.45%
ISE Sentiment 172.00 +20.28%
US Dollar 86.36 -.31%
CRB 296.47 +1.09%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 49.15 +1.03%
Unleaded Gasoline 140.05 -1.31%
Natural Gas 6.42 +1.29%
Heating Oil 136.65 -.06%
Gold 416.90 unch.
Base Metals 120.29 +.59%
Copper 138.75 -.07%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.05% -1.63%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.23%
Energy +1.55%
Homebuilders +1.47%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -.15%
Semis -.32%
Airlines -.78%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Eastman Kodak hired Intel’s Sandra Morris to run its online photographic business as the company prepares for President Antonio Perez to take over next week by adding more managers with digital experience.
- Genentech said that almost 95% of patients treated with its experimental Lucentis drug maintained or improved their vision in a study.
- JDS Uniphase agreed to buy Acterna for $760 million in cash and stock to bolster its sales of testing and management products for communications providers.
- Shares of Maytag rose for a second day above the $14-a-share price that buyout firms led by Ripplewood Holdings LLC agreed to pay for the company, suggesting investors expect a higher bid.
- US Treasury notes surged, pushing 10-year note yields near 4% for the second time in a week, on speculation inflation will remain in check.

Wall Street Journal:
- Ray McGuire, Morgan Stanley’s co-head of mergers and acquisitions, is leaving the world’s biggest securities firm by market value to join Citigroup.
- Boeing will announce the official approval tomorrow to begin production of a freighter version of its 777-200LR jetliner.

AP:
- US officials arrested a Pennsylvania man for allegedly trying to build a bomb to sell to an affiliate of the al-Qaeda terrorist network.
- US first lady Laura Bush said Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s plan to hold free competitive elections is a “bold and wise” move toward democracy.

Financial Times:
- The US film industry may push for action against China at the WTO over sales of illegal DVDs.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Internet, Computer, Wireless and Homebuilding longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market weakened modestly into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished slightly higher, most sectors rose and volume was below-average. Measures of investor anxiety were lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was slightly positive considering recent gains and a bounce in energy prices. It appears as though investors are anticipating Fed comments this week suggesting a slowing in the pace of rate hikes. This may be a bit premature. However, I do expect these types of comments closer to the June meeting.

Stocks High Mid-day as Long-Term Rates Drop

Indices
S&P 500 1,194.90 +.48%
DJIA 10,535.75 +.61%
NASDAQ 2,058.84 +.61%
Russell 2000 613.83 +.73%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,785.38 +.48%
S&P Barra Growth 578.46 +.54%
S&P Barra Value 611.92 +.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.14 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 729.00 +1.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 479.97 +.80%
Transports 3,644.39 +.64%
Utilities 363.68 -.33%
Put/Call .83 -16.16%
NYSE Arms .86 -25.42%
Volatility(VIX) 12.99 -1.14%
ISE Sentiment 192.00 +34.27%
US Dollar 86.41 -.25%
CRB 296.79 +1.18%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 48.70 +.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 139.10 -1.98%
Natural Gas 6.37 +.58%
Heating Oil 136.20 -.39%
Gold 416.90 -.19%
Base Metals 120.29 +.59%
Copper 138.85 +.98%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.05% -1.63%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.70%
Gold & Silver +1.36%
Steel +1.21%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -.17%
Gaming -.25%
Airlines -.68%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Homebuilding, Internet, Wireless and Computer longs. I exited a Software long this morning and added INSP long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using a $32 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is positive, given last week’s gains and the morning bounce in energy prices. I expect US stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering, lower long-term interest rates, declining energy prices and strength in the Tech sector.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Donald Trump is beginning Trump University, an online enterprise to provide training for working business professionals.
- The US economy may expand by 3.4% this year, less than the 3.6% projected in February and down from 4.4% in 2004, according to 50 economists surveyed by the NABE.
- Fed Chairman Greenspan, in the last great battle of his career, is waging a war against inflation that bond traders say he’s already won.
- US Treasury notes rose for the first day in three on speculation inflation will remain in check, bolstering the purchasing power of fixed-income payments.

Wall Street Journal:
- San Francisco-based GarageBand.com hopes to cater to users of a new music medium called podcasting who are worried about copyrights.
- Bank of America, Wachovia and other banks have told more than 100,000 customers their accounts and identity information may be compromised after former bank employees may have sold account numbers and balances to somebody who sold the data to collection agencies.
- Walt Disney’s ABC television network is popular with advertisers looking to buy commercials for the fall’s new US television season.
- Apple Computer, the maker of Macintosh computers, may soon begin using Intel chips in its PCs.
- Western Wireless hired Deutsche Bank AG to examine potential offers for the company’s overseas mobile phone assets, which could be worth as much as $2 billion.
- Standard Asset Management plans to start an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of a barrel of light, sweet crude oil.
- Barnes & Noble’s Sterling Publishing unit has created a simplified line of classic books, such as “The Adventures of Tom Sawyer,” that are geared largely to children with reading problems.
- Newsweek Editor in Chief Richard M. Smith said no writers or editors will lose their jobs because of the May 16 retraction of an incorrect article that said US guards at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, desecrated a copy of the Koran. At least 17 people lost their lives in riots in Afghanistan related to the inaccurate report.

NY Times:
- Omnicom Group, the world’s largest advertising company by revenue, and other agencies are struggling to stay in business amid narrowing profit margins and falling stock prices.
- Best Buy toughened a policy to detour minors from buying violent or sexually explicit video games amid shareholder pressuring.

AP:
- American Psychiatric Association representatives have approved a statement urging legal recognition of same-sex marriage.
- A bipartisan group of US senators plan to introduce a $611 billion bill this week that would repeal the alternative minimum tax.

NY Post:
- Pfizer’s Viagra is being provided to almost 200 of New York’s worst sexual offenders through Medicaid reimbursements, citing a report by state Comptroller Alan Hevesi.

Washington Post:
- Iraq’s radical Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a halt to the killing of all Iraqis, following the end of a Sunni Muslim boycott of politics.

LA Times:
- TV Watch, a group partially funded by broadcast networks, has created a Web site to diffuse media watchdog groups in the debate about indecency in television and radio.

Centre Press:
- A rejection to the European Union’s new constitution would weaken the position of France and deal a blow to Europe, French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffrin said.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- SAP AG forecast a partnership with Microsoft will help it double the number of customers using its software on personal computers in three to five years.

Xinhua-PRNewswire:
- Bank of America may buy a 5% stake in China Construction Bank, paying as much as $2 billion.

Economic Releases

None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Global semiconductor sales will this year rise more than earlier forecast because of better-than-expected computer demand and inventory management, market researcher Gartner Inc. said.
- Wal-Mart Stores said May sales at US stores open at least one year are rising within its forecast range as shoppers spent more on food.
- OPEC nations may link their most profitable oil-field developments to less attractive refining ventures to spur international companies to invest in new refineries, the group's president said.
- President Bush said the US delivered a "series of devastating blows" to terrorists in the Middle East in recent weeks, highlighting several high-profile captures and a week-long offensive against insurgents near the Syrian border.
- Senator McCain said a meeting tomorrow among a dozen Republican and Democratic senators will be their last chance to head off a partisan showdown over President Bush's judicial nominees.
- The US dollar is poised for its longest winning streak against the euro since 2000 as some investors say the US currency's three-year bear market has ended, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
- Gold may fall for a fourth straight week in NY, the longest decline in a year, as a rally in the US dollar reduces the allure of precious metals, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- China's textile makers, who spent $14.3 billion last year on factories and materials, say local demand will buffer any slowdown in orders from Wal-Mart and Carrefour SA because of a looming trade war with the US and Europe.
- Chinese stocks are falling, paced by textile companies, after the government said it will raise export tariffs on products such as shirts and pants to ease trade tensions with the US and European Union.
- China's relations with Japan are at their lowest ebb in three decades and both governments must "strive" to improve ties between Asia's two largest economies, China's Vice Premier Wu Yi said.

Wall Street Journal:
- European and Japanese cellphone revenue is slowing or falling, making for bigger challenges for companies such as Britain's Vodfone, Sweden's TeliaSonera, and Japan's NTT DoCoMo.

New York Times:
- Merck CEO Clark plans to revitalize research and development at the company after it lost its position as the largest drugmaker.
- The popularity of sport-utility vehicles in the US is beginning to wane amid higher gas prices, and passenger cars are beginning to win back sales for the first time in 14 years.
- Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the ousted head of American International Group, will likely continue to influence control over about $16 billion of the insurer's stock.
- Harvard University is starting to allow donors to invest with the university's endowment, a decision that's attracted attention in academic and investing circles.
- The UN is allowing its peacekeepers to be more aggressive in their operations by returning fire and searching for weapons because of failed missions in Rwanda, Bosnia and Somalia.

Washington Post:
- Democrats in the US House of Representatives are risking support from high-tech companies to oppose the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement.
- Sunni Muslims ended their two-year boycott of politics in post-Saddam Iraq yesterday with leaders agreeing to help draft a constitution and participate in elections.
- Jurors in criminal cases increasingly are refusing to convict suspects in the absence of the kind of forensic data that they see used on popular television crime shows.
- The US military plans to reduce the number of bases it holds in Iraq by 96% by moving its forces into four large airbases and turning the rest over to Iraqi troops.

Crains's New York Business:
- Washington Mutual, Bank of America, Citigroup and other banks are opening so many new branches in NY City, they may saturate the market.

LA Times:
- Shares of US retailers such as Pacific Sunwear of California and Abercrombie & Fitch fell Friday after Prudential analyst Stacy Pak downgraded them on concern that a glut of denim fashions may be developing.
- Murders in the Mexican border city of Tijuana jumped by 77% during the first four months of this year, fueled in part by fighting between drug cartels.

Business Insurance Magazine:
- Commercial health-insurance premiums probably will increase 7.5% to 9.5% this year, less than in previous years, as companies price their offerings at or near medical costs.

Financial Times:
- Time Warner has "failed" to integrate its America Online acquisition and to get full benefit from its joint bid for Adelphia Communications, citing John Malone, the US cable-tv investor.
- China overtook Italy as the world's fourth-most popular destination for tourists.
- UK company directors bought more stock in their own companies in the past month than since July, with technology shares among the most popular and retail the least.
- Mattel is investigating claims that children as young as 13 are employed at a Mexican factory that makes dolls clothes for the company.
- Two-thirds of international institutional investors say markets have scarcely considered, if at all, the possibility of a "No" vote in the French national referendum on the European Union constitution on May 29, citing Barclays Capital.

Sunday Telegraph:
- European Union leaders are preparing a plan to salvage the bloc's planned constitution should the French reject it narrowly in a referendum next week. Under the "Plan B," all 25 EU members will release an emergency joint statement that will say voting must continue. The UK would proceed with it referendum next spring and the French would then vote again after the constitution is approved by all other EU states. Should the French reject the treaty by a wide margin, the constitution would be doomed, as France was one of the EU's founding members, and leaders wouldn't attempt to revive it.

China Daily:
- Profit at China's steelmakers may drop by $568 million this year because of government efforts to slow exports of the metal.
- China dispatched 3 million doses of avian influenza vaccine to the northwestern province of Qinghai after confirming deaths of migratory birds there resulted from the virus.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on TOL, CECO, MOT, FCS, GS, MER, TS, NCC and mixed on DIS.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on DHI and mixed on OMM.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on PEP, mixed on AMAT, HPQ, UHAL, HAS, K, NUE and negative on WMT.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on WPO, VIA, WFT and negative on NYT.

Forbes:
- Had a positive article on AMCR and BCO.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on AVID, MOT, SFA, SNE, PCAR, JAS, BWNG, DRRX, ILA, DYN, MYG and MSFT.
- Had negative comments on USU.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on IBM, DKS, AAP and ODP.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.10%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CPB/.33
DY/.25

Splits
ECA 2-for-1

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed as strength in Japan and Australia is being offset by weakness in China and Taiwan. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher on a decline in energy prices and short-covering ahead of economic reports and Fed speeches. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.