Monday, May 22, 2006

Stocks Finish Lower on Worries Over Future Growth

Indices
S&P 500 1,262.07 -.39%
DJIA 11,125.33 -.17%
NASDAQ 2,172.86 -.96%
Russell 2000 715.25 -1.01%
Wilshire 5000 12,709.79 -.52%
S&P Barra Growth 585.03 -.37%
S&P Barra Value 675.18 -.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 602.64 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 823.87 -1.32%
Morgan Stanley Technology 501.44 -.77%
Transports 4,650.34 +.52%
Utilities 399.55 +.71%
Put/Call 1.21 -.82%
NYSE Arms 1.54 +72.87%
Volatility(VIX) 17.54 +3.03%
ISE Sentiment 191.00 +36.43%
US Dollar 84.33 -.65%
CRB 344.21 +1.64%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 69.23 +1.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 205.85 +.05%
Natural Gas 6.30 +.41%
Heating Oil 193.26 +.65%
Gold 656.50 -.18%
Base Metals 225.00 +1.12%
Copper 343.50 -.77%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.03% -.44%

Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +.79%
Utilities +.71%
Tobacco +.50%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -4.19%
Alternative Energy -4.54%
Steel -4.94%

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Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- People over 65, who are at greatest risk of death from influenza, may need four times the standard level of flu vaccine for effective protection, researchers say.
- Investment strategists Thomas McManus of Banc of America Securities and Ed Keon of Prudential Equity Group defended US stocks amid their biggest correction in three years.
- The average US pump price for regular gasoline fell 6.4 cents to $2.88 a gallon in the week ended today, the US Energy Dept. said.

AP:
- Stephens Inc., the brokerage firm based in Little Rock, Arkansas, said it will divide its business into two segments with each controlled by different family members.

Memphis Commercial Appeal:
- FedEx Corp.(FDX) will buy trucking company Watkins Motor Lines to extend freight services into Mexico and Canada.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today as losses in my Semi longs and Medical longs more than offset gains in my Base Metal shorts and Energy-related shorts. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, almost every sector fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. The problem with today's slight comeback from morning lows is that it was led mainly by energy stocks as oil reversed higher. I don't think a broad market rally is sustainable that is led by commodities. Having said that, I am still hopeful a double bottom in the major averages occurred this morning as anxiety measures spiked higher. I will closely monitor signs of emerging leadership before becoming further convinced of a bottom in equities.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Weakness in Commodity and Tech Shares

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour as losses in my Semi longs and Medical longs are more than offsetting gains in my Base Metal shorts and Energy-related shorts. I added to my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is above average. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM), which I am short, is down 15% in two weeks. The end of the emerging markets and commodities manias are currently resulting in pain for the broad market. But I continue to believe that U.S. stocks will be huge beneficiaries from this development over the intermediate-term as demand for U.S. assets increases, the U.S. dollar firms, consumer confidence rises, the negativity bubble deflates further, inflation worries subside and long-term interest rates remain relatively low. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates and bargain hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Federal investigators said in court papers that they videotaped Louisiana Democratic Representative William Jefferson accepting a leather briefcase packed with $100,000 in cash from a government witness in a bribery investigation.
- MGM Mirage(MGM), Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) and other US casino operators are increasing pressure on Congress to consider legalizing online gambling.
- US corporate bonds may rebound from the worst week in a year as investors gain confidence the Fed will combat inflation while the economy grows, according to JPMorgan Chase.
- Germany and China agreed Iran shouldn’t be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today in Beijing after meeting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair arrived in Baghdad today to show support for the new government created by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
- Emerging market stocks declined for a 10th day, the longest losing streak in eight years, as investors fled riskier assets around the world because of sliding commodity prices.
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said he expects Iraq’s security forces to reach full strength by the end of the year, paving the way for Western troops to withdraw from the country.
- Euronext NV, Europe’s second-largest stock exchange, said its board prefers NYSE Group’s(NYX) $10.2 billion takeover offer to a competing proposal by Deutsche Boerse AG.
- The US probe into executive stock-option grants widened, as Juniper Networks(JNPR) and Openwave Systems(OPWV) said they were contacted by regulators.
- US Treasuries are rallying, pushing the 10-year yield below 5%, spurred by declining commodity prices and a flight to safety.

Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), under pressure form European antitrust regulators, has begun to produce “vastly improved” technical instructions in the US to help rival companies write software that works smoothly with Microsoft’s Windows operating system.
- John Browne, the CEO of BP Plc, said natural gas will ultimately take over from oil as the main kind of energy production in Alaska. His comments can be interpreted as an indication of confidence that a proposed 3,400-kilometer gas pipeline to Canada and the rest of the US will be built. He added that gas reserves on the Alaskan North Slope are very large but largely untapped.
- The Smithsonian Institution non-profit record label has agreed to market its library of folk music and other recordings over the Internet services such as Apple Computer’s(AAPL) iTunes Music Store.

NY Times:
- US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said the government has the legal power to prosecute reporters for publishing classified information.

USA Today:
- Ticketmaster plans to begin auctioning the best seats for many top summer concert tours.

Financial Times:
- News Corp.’s(NWS/A) MySpace.com social networking Web site may have Google Inc.(GOOG) and Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) competing for its Internet search engine business when its current contracts expire.

Tehran Times:
- Iran expects its international oil exchange, scheduled to open in 2007, to increase the country’s annual oil revenue by $10 billion, or about 22%.

Valor Economico:
- Brazil Fund Inc.(BZF), one of the first investment funds that allowed foreigners to buy Brazilian shares, will shut down and sell off its $1.1 billion portfolio.

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

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Sunday, May 21, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki won parliamentary approval for his new cross-party government after five months of negotiations, seeking to end sectarian violence.
- President Bush today called Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to congratulate him on the formation of a new government and said Iraq’s transformation would be a “devastating defeat” for terrorists.
- President Bush said the Senate should at by the end of the month on “comprehensive” immigration legislation that tightens the US-Mexico border and create an immigrant guest worker program.
- Israeli Prime Minister Olmert said Iran is “months” away from being able to make a nuclear weapon.
- Embattled New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin turned back a re-election challenge from Louisiana Lieutenant Governor Landrieu and will be sworn in for a second term on May 31, the day before the hurricane season begins.
- Chilean President Bachelet said that high prices for copper, Chile’s top export, will be “temporary” and reiterated that the government will save its windfall from the metal.
- Seven of the ten worst performers out of 80 stock indexes tracked globally by Bloomberg this year are Arab indexes.
- US Treasuries surged this week, with the 10-year note posing its biggest gain since September, as comments by Fed officials spurred confidence that the central bank will maintain its focus on containing inflation.
- Schlumberger(SLB), America’s largest oil service company, registered to sell 4.6 million shares for insiders after the close on Friday.
- Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of US stocks a week before the 1987 Black Monday Crash, is telling clients that commodity prices may plunge as much as 30% in three to six months.
- The Australian dollar weakened as last week’s biggest drop in commodities prices in 25 years raised concern the rally in metals that has helped the currency gain 3.4% this year has gone too far.
- Copper and aluminum futures in Shanghai fell by the maximum 4% after the Shanghai futures exchange said copper stockpiles rose 18% and aluminum inventories gained 1.6% last week.

Wall Street Journal:
- Bill Ford Jr., CEO of Ford Motor(F), supports the idea of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration overhauling fuel economy standards.
- US tax receipts from investments and dividends soared 17% in April from a year earlier, citing US Treasury statistics.

NY Times:
- Venezuelan President Chavez has angered Latin American neighbors such as Peru, Nicaragua, Argentina and Brazil, who are resentful of what they see as interference in their affairs.
- Geek squad founder Robert Stephens said service industries are moving toward charging flat fees rather than hourly rates.
- The chief UN aid coordinator told the UN Security Council that the international assistance effort in the Sudan region of Darfur may collapse in weeks.
- The global e-mail security industry is expected to expand to $2.6 billion by 2009 compared with $675 million in 2004, citing research firm IDC.

Business Week:
- With high gas prices making alternate fuels increasingly attractive, no alternative fuel has received as much attention as ethanol.

AP:
- US Democratic Representative William Jefferson’s office was searched by FBI agents late today in connection with a bribery investigation.

LA Times:
- The US is talking with Arab Persian Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar about military plans to contain Iran’s influence in the region.

Barron’s:
- Joe Rosenberg, Chief Investment Strategist at Loews Corp.(LTR), said the recent increase in commodity prices in “overdone.” “The sudden shift in the demand side is not a consequence of a sudden boom in China and India,” Rosenberg said. “More likely it’s caused by a bunch of hedge funds just pilling in.” Rosenberg also said emerging market debt is overpriced.

CNET News.com:
- Symantec Corp.(SYMC) raised the alert level for a cyberattack on a security hole in Microsoft’s(MSFT) Word program.

Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Motorola Inc.(MOT) plans to open its first cell-phone store on June 5, a retail outlet on Chicago’s Michigan Avenue, to counter a Nokia Oyj(NOK) store that will open nearby.

Sunday Times:
- Royal Mail Group Plc, Britain’s postal service, is in negotiations to forge a European strategic alliance with either FedEx Corp.(FDX) or United Parcel Service(UPS).

Sunday Telegraph:
- NYSE Group(NYX) will today submit a proposal outlining a $21 billion merger of equals with Euronext NV.
- Google’s(GOOG) European head said Europe’s businesses trail their US rivals in exploiting the commercial power of the Internet, citing an interview with Google’s Nikesh Arora.

Globe and Mail:
- Canada won’t support efforts by other countries to set deeper emission-reduction targets for the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol after 2012.

China Securities Journal:
- China’s central bank said it will control the pace of lending growth and increase flexibility in the yuan this year.

Folha de S. Paulo:
- Brazilian Economy Ministry officials said higher US interest rates would weaken the country’s currency as reais-denominated assets become less attractive.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (YHOO), (MSFT), (JNJ), (PFE), (WMT) and (CTAC).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.19%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.30%.

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Company/Estimate
- (CPB)/.35
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Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to build on gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.