Indices
S&P 500 1,418.30 +15.8%
DJIA 12,463.15 +19.0%
NASDAQ 2,415.29 +10.4%
Russell 2000 787.66 +18.4%
Wilshire 5000 14,215.82 +13.75%
S&P Barra Growth 652.55 +11.0%
S&P Barra Value 764.25 +20.9%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 695.50 +20.1%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 893.44 +16.1%
Morgan Stanley Technology 568.20 +9.4%
Transports 4,560.20 +9.8%
Utilities 456.77 +16.6%
MSCI Emerging Markets 114.17 +31.2%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 10,927 +16.6%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 46.0 +110.0%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 160,309 +33.0%
Put/Call .88 +15.8%
NYSE Arms 1.56 -5.55%
Volatility(VIX) 11.56 -4.22%
ISE Sentiment 165.0 -13.6%
AAII % Bulls 46.0 -10.0%
AAII % Bears 36.0 +47.3%
US Dollar 83.65 -8.3%
CRB 307.26 -7.4%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 138.50 +14.0%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.05 unch.
Reformulated Gasoline 161.63 n/a
Natural Gas 6.3 -44.0%
Heating Oil 164.82 -6.2%
Gold 638.80 +22.9%
Base Metals 236.91 +55.4%
Copper 286.60 +32.3%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.7% +7.1%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.18% -13.44%
Leading Sectors
Telecom +33.6%
REITs +30.0%
Gaming +25.2%
Defense +25.1%
I-Banks +23.1%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals +1.52%
Internet +.64%
Semis -2.4%
Homebuilding -9.1%
Coal -9.3%
This Year’s Winners
This Year’s Losers
*1-Year % Total Return
Saturday, December 30, 2006
Friday, December 29, 2006
Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Year-end Profit-taking
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is very light. US stock short interest is just off all-time highs, US stock mutual funds have seen outflows for months and the sentiment of the herd is very pessimistic. In fact, herd sentiment has never been worse in US history with the DJIA making record highs almost weekly. With all the many bears and even many bulls calling for a pullback in January, I wouldn’t be surprised to see stocks start the new year off with a very strong upwards bang after a couple more consolidation days as the anticipated decline fails to materialize and investors jump back on before getting left too far behind again. The S&P 500 is finishing the year with about a 15.5% total return, slightly above my early year prediction of a 15% total return. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on more economic optimism and short-covering.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President George W. Bush declared Jan. 2 to be a national day of mourning after this week’s death of former President Gerald R. Ford.
- The Nasdaq Stock Market said it will close Jan. 2 in honor of former President Gerald Ford. The NYSE may shut down as well.
- Broadway Real Estate Partners LLC, a property-investment and management firm, said it bought Boston’s John Hancock Tower and nine other US buildings today from Beacon Capital Partners LLC for more than $3.3 billion.
- The People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest regular fighting force, spent 14.7% more this year, according to a Chinese government report. Military spending accelerated after a decade of 9% average increases.
- The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Assoc. recommended US bond markets close early on Jan.2 in honor of former President Gerald Ford.
- Crude oil is falling in NY, heading for a second weekly decline, as mild weather is reducing near-record speculation by investment funds on the commodity.
- Ipsco Inc.(IPS), which makes steel pipe for oil and natural gas explorers, cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast to $3-$3.10/share, citing lower demand for steel plate and tube and higher industry inventories. Ipsco had forecast profit of $3.30-$3.50/share.
- AT&T(T) agreed to new concessions including some price controls to win regulatory approval for its $86 billion purchase of BellSouth Corp.
AP:
- The North Carolina State Bar filed ethics charges against District Attorney Mike Nifong, the prosecutor in the Duke University lacrosse case.
Seoul Economic Daily:
- Samsung Group, Hyundai Motor Group, LG Group and SK Group plan to invest a total of $52 billion next year, 5.3% more than this year, the groups’ chairman told President Roh Moo Hyun yesterday.
Xinhua News Agency:
- China’s Internet users reached 132 million at the end of 2006, the second largest after the US, citing government data.
- China added 66.6 million cell-phone users and 19.6 million fixed-line telephone subscribers during 2006.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters(GMCR), which sells coffee products to offices, supermarkets and restaurants, will see its shares climb as it adds customers, citing Richard Driehaus.
- Shares of EMC Corp.(EMC), a data storage company, may rise in 2007 as a result of higher revenue, successful acquisitions and buybacks, citing Jerome Heppelmann, CEO of Liberty Ridge Capital.
- Linear Technology(LLTC) may grow faster than the rest of the semiconductor industry, citing Christiana Bank & Trust fund manager Scott Armiger.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (SIAL) 2-for-1
- (SWS) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- President George W. Bush declared Jan. 2 to be a national day of mourning after this week’s death of former President Gerald R. Ford.
- The Nasdaq Stock Market said it will close Jan. 2 in honor of former President Gerald Ford. The NYSE may shut down as well.
- Broadway Real Estate Partners LLC, a property-investment and management firm, said it bought Boston’s John Hancock Tower and nine other US buildings today from Beacon Capital Partners LLC for more than $3.3 billion.
- The People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest regular fighting force, spent 14.7% more this year, according to a Chinese government report. Military spending accelerated after a decade of 9% average increases.
- The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Assoc. recommended US bond markets close early on Jan.2 in honor of former President Gerald Ford.
- Crude oil is falling in NY, heading for a second weekly decline, as mild weather is reducing near-record speculation by investment funds on the commodity.
- Ipsco Inc.(IPS), which makes steel pipe for oil and natural gas explorers, cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast to $3-$3.10/share, citing lower demand for steel plate and tube and higher industry inventories. Ipsco had forecast profit of $3.30-$3.50/share.
- AT&T(T) agreed to new concessions including some price controls to win regulatory approval for its $86 billion purchase of BellSouth Corp.
AP:
- The North Carolina State Bar filed ethics charges against District Attorney Mike Nifong, the prosecutor in the Duke University lacrosse case.
Seoul Economic Daily:
- Samsung Group, Hyundai Motor Group, LG Group and SK Group plan to invest a total of $52 billion next year, 5.3% more than this year, the groups’ chairman told President Roh Moo Hyun yesterday.
Xinhua News Agency:
- China’s Internet users reached 132 million at the end of 2006, the second largest after the US, citing government data.
- China added 66.6 million cell-phone users and 19.6 million fixed-line telephone subscribers during 2006.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters(GMCR), which sells coffee products to offices, supermarkets and restaurants, will see its shares climb as it adds customers, citing Richard Driehaus.
- Shares of EMC Corp.(EMC), a data storage company, may rise in 2007 as a result of higher revenue, successful acquisitions and buybacks, citing Jerome Heppelmann, CEO of Liberty Ridge Capital.
- Linear Technology(LLTC) may grow faster than the rest of the semiconductor industry, citing Christiana Bank & Trust fund manager Scott Armiger.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (SIAL) 2-for-1
- (SWS) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Rising Economic Optimism
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs and Telecom longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is slightly below average. Short interest on the NYSE rose from mid November through mid December and remains near all-time highs despite recent market gains and almost weekly DJIA record highs. Days to cover rose to 6.3 from 6.0 the prior month. Bears remain stunningly complacent, in my opinion, as every rally is viewed as just another shorting/selling opportunity and every pullback is viewed as evidence of a major top. I continue to believe overall investor sentiment towards U.S. stocks has never before in history been this poor with the DJIA making all-time highs. The "mother of all short-covering rallies" will occur. It is just a matter of time. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on more economic optimism, short-covering and portfolio manager performance anxiety.
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