Economic Gauges:
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +4.3% -.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.09 +.51: Growth Rate +14.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.1 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% +3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% -20.0 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +2.7: Growth Rate +35.1% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 30.9 +.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 -29.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.1% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 63.4%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.0%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +143 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +260 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +184 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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