Friday, May 03, 2024

Stocks Surging into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +4.3% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.09 +.51:  Growth Rate +14.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.1 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% +3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% -20.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +2.7: Growth Rate +35.1% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 30.9 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 -29.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 63.4%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.0%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +143 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +260 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +184 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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