Thursday, January 28, 2010

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- U.K. banks are no longer among the world’s “most stable and low-risk,” and are on a par with those in Chile and Portugal, Standard & Poor’s said. The pound reversed earlier gains against the dollar. The industry may face losses as the country’s economy stagnates and much of the industry depends on government assistance, S&P analysts led by Nigel Greenwood said in a statement today. Economic growth in the U.K. will suffer as the government, households and some companies cut debt, he said. S&P lowered in December the U.K.’s place in its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment gauge to Group 3 from Group 2. Countries which have a similar rating to the U.K. include the U.S., Austria, Chile, and Portugal, S&P said last month.

- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS), one of the biggest recipients of funds from the U.S. bailout of American International Group Inc., was seen by the public as favored by regulators, according to an internal Federal Reserve Bank of New York e-mail. The public perception was a reason to reject a December 2008 media request for the names of securities purchased from banks during AIG’s rescue, according to the e-mail released yesterday. If the names of the assets were released, the banks, including Goldman Sachs, would be identified as beneficiaries, New York Fed employee Danielle Vicente wrote in the Dec. 4, 2008, e-mail to Fed counsel James Hennessy. “A major U.S. counterparty was Goldman, which has already been seen as favored by the Fed/Treasury in the public’s eye,” Vicente wrote. Regarding the non-U.S. banks, “it would be hard to sell the public on U.S. funds to buy foreign entities out of AIG risk.” Another reason that Vicente said the New York Fed wanted details of the payments withheld: The banks got 100 cents on the dollar for real-estate linked assets, called collateralized debt obligations, that had declined in value. “Counterparties received par -- which is politically sensitive -- but necessary given the economics of the deals,” Vicente wrote. “That’s something you just can’t explain in a press release because it involves understanding of why the deals don’t have isolated risks (for example, I believe one counterparty had shorted AIG risk in order to balance their AIG exposure on the CDS deals, so tearing up the trades left them exposed with no hedge, etc.)” Also yesterday, Goldman Sachs board member Stephen Friedman was asked about his tenure as New York Fed chairman and his purchase of Goldman Sachs shares while in that role. Friedman, who spent a career at Goldman Sachs, said the bank didn’t gain any unfair advantage because of his involvement. Friedman, 72, was asked whether Goldman Sachs encourages employees to work for government agencies. “What there has been over the years is a certain tradition that you work here, you try to do well for yourself and your family and then you give back and you do public service,” Friedman said. “For many years this was regarded as a very constructive and positive thing. Recently it’s gone the other way and people are thinking, ‘Is there some ulterior motive?’”

- Greek bonds slumped for a third day and the cost to insure the country’s debt rose to a record after Prime Minister George Papandreou said the government doesn’t need to borrow from European nations to curb its budget deficit.

- Billionaire investor George Soros said China’s stock market is “overheating” and policy makers should seek to temper its gains. “Right now, the Chinese market is overheating and they have to slow it down,” Soros said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “It remains to be seen how successful they are.” The founder of the $25 billion hedge-fund firm Soros Fund Management LLC said there is “no attractive alternative” to the dollar, noting the U.K. is in “worse shape” than the U.S. and the euro has its “own problems.” His concern about the value of Chinese stocks reflects the results of this month’s poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers, which showed 62 percent of respondents view China as a bubble. Three out of 10 investors said the country posed the greatest downside risk, ranking it the second- riskiest market behind the European Union.

- Ford Motor Co.(F) posted 2009 net income of $2.7 billion, ending three straight annual losses, and forecast a 2010 pretax operating profit as Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally reaped the benefits of his recovery plan. Fourth-quarter earnings were $868 million, or 25 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier net loss of $5.98 billion, or $2.51, Ford said today. Excluding one-time costs, profit was 43 cents a share, beating analysts’ estimates, and the shares rose. The full-year profit was Mulally’s first since coming from Boeing Co. in 2006. Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford gained U.S. market share for the first year since 1995 with new models such as the revamped Taurus sedan while the predecessors of General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC reorganized with federal aid. “Ford is well along the road in their turnaround,” said John Wolkonowicz, an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “They did it without government help and by themselves. That’s giving them the highest consideration and public acceptance they’ve had in decades.”

- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva cancelled plans to attend the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland after being hospitalized for high blood pressure.

- The euro dropped to the lowest level against dollar and yen in more than six months as Greece’s and Portugal’s budget crises spurred a retreat from riskier assets. The common currency fell against most of its major counterparts including the pound as the cost to insure Greece’s sovereign debt rose to a record. The yen climbed against the Norwegian krone and Brazilian real as investors sought refuge from European budget turmoil. “There’s definitely fear of systemic risk within the euro zone right now,” said Amelia Bourdeau, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. “We keep seeing more sovereign risk headlines about Greece and Portugal. That pushes the euro lower.”

- Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.(POT), the world’s largest producer of its namesake crop nutrient, said fourth-quarter profit fell 69 percent because of lower demand and reduced prices. “Things are still fragile in that there is no inventory restocking going on,” Ian Nakamoto, director of research at MacDougall MacDougall & MacTier Inc., said today in a telephone interview from Toronto. “Earnings at Potash in 2010 will be up, but the base in 2009 was very low. The stock is not for the faint-hearted.” MacDougall manages about $4 billion and owns Potash Corp. stock.


Wall Street Journal:

- The British university at the center of a controversy over stolen emails on climate change research broke the law by failing to comply with requests for raw data, U.K. authorities said. But the institution won't be prosecuted because the statute of limitations has expired. The U.K.'s Information Commisioner's Office, the ICO, said the emails show requests made to the University of East Anglia under the Freedom of Information Act were "not dealt with as they should have been under the legislation." It referred to a section of the act that makes it an offense for authorities to deliberately prevent the disclosure of information requested by the public. The findings are an embarrassment for UEA and its Climatic Research Unit, whose director Professor Phil Jones was forced to step down last month pending the outcome of an investigation into the leaked email affair. The review is being led by Sir Muir Russell, an eminent former civil servant. The exposure of the thousands of emails led to allegations that UEA researchers had manipulated data to bolster the argument for global warming and squelched the views of climate change skeptics. The affair blew up just days before the Copenhagen climate-change summit and cast a pall over international efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions. But the ICO said too much time had elapsed for those involved to be prosecuted for breaching the Freedom of Information Act. Some of the messages discussed ways to decline such requests, on the grounds that the data was confidential or was intellectual property. In some of the exchanges, U.K. researchers asked foreign scientists to delete all emails related to their work for the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In others, they discussed boycotting scientific journals that require them to make their data public.


CNBC:

- Mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week. The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slipped 2 basis points this week, to 5.13 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders.


Washington Post:

- Obama proposes tax increase on international corporations | 9:21 p.m.
"And to encourage these and other businesses to stay within our borders, it's time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs in the United States of America." Obama refers here to his plan to raise taxes on international corporations by more than $200 billion over the next decade, a proposal that went nowhere in Congress after he laid it out last year.
The idea is unlikely to win approval in an election year, either, and even some of the most liberal Democrats, such as House Ways and Means Committee chairman Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.) say they would only consider such a big tax hike on business in the context of comprehensive tax reform.


The Business Insider:

- Meet The Wall Street Fat Cats The Democrats Are Hitting Up For Huge Cash.

- Goldman(GS) Studies 24 Housing Busts: Recoveries Always Weak, But Stocks Go Up Regardless.

- The Real iPad Revolution Is The A4 Chip That’s Running it.

- Jeff Zucker May Get The Boot.


The Detroit News:

- Michigan drivers will have to navigate bumpier roads in the next five years after the Michigan State Transportation Commission this morning slashed 243 road and bridge projects from the Michigan Department of Transportation's 2010-14 road program. The commission was forced to cut the projects due to continued declines in state gas tax revenues and the state's inability to match federal dollars beginning in 2011.


Washington Times:

- President Obama's pick to help oversee U.S. export controls for the Commerce Department is a lawyer and political supporter who has been providing export advice to Fortune 500 companies such as arms manufacturer Raytheon and aerospace giant Boeing. But while White House officials and members of Congress have lauded Kevin J. Wolf's experience for the Commerce job, his recent legal work effectively appears to bar him from potential matters involving dozens of companies. Mr. Obama's ethics rules, described by the White House as "the toughest of any administration in history," prohibit political appointees such as Mr. Wolf from "particular matters" involving former employers or clients. "Depending on his former clients, Mr. Wolf might have to recuse himself from many job duties and responsibilities in which they are involved," said Scott Amey, general counsel for the nonpartisan Project On Government Oversight. "If that's the case, I would be concerned that any real or apparent conflicts of interest would hinder his ability to serve taxpayers effectively."


SeekingAlpha:

- The really big news out of Apple(AAPL) this week though has to be the astonishing breakthrough the company has made in Asia. Asia as a per centage of profits, doubled to 20% in the last quarter. Sales in Taiwan and Japan were up several fold and in China, 200,000 legal iPhones have been activated. I say legal because several hundred thousand have been smuggled into the country. China Unicom (CHU) confirms that 70% of those buying an iPhone are switching to 3G. To put that number in context, the iPhone sells for $1000 dollars in China, a country where per capita income is around $3,400. Furthermore, you cannot use WiFi on the official iPhone, though you can if you smuggle one in. The new official number for 3G users in China is 13m. That could double this year. Chinese operators are as accident prone as their Western cousins. 3G wont be big there unless they embrace a device like the iPHone. Apple's growth in Asia will be the single most important event of the coming year.


Huffington Post:

- Democrats Asleep? Reid Yawns, Napolitano Appears To Be Sleeping During Obama’s State Of The Union Speech.


Rassmussen:

- One of the key new initiatives in President Obama’s State of the Union speech is a three-year freeze on discretionary government spending, but voters overwhelmingly believe the freeze will have little or no impact on the federal deficit. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just nine percent (9%) think the freeze will reduce the deficit a lot. Eighty-one percent (81%) disagree, including 42% who say it will have no impact.

- The number of voters who give Congress a poor job performance rating is now at its highest level in more than three years. More voters also think most members of Congress are corrupt. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 61% of likely voters say Congress is doing a poor job.


Politico:

- President Barack Obama received thunderous applause from Democrats when he took aim at the big banks, George W. Bush’s administration and Republicans in Congress. But perhaps nothing gave House Democrats more satisfaction than when the president used his State of the Union speech to jab the Senate – where dozens and dozens of bills have stalled, a dynamic that has helped fuel voter frustration towards Washington and House Democratic anger towards their colleagues in the upper chamber. “As you know, the Republicans are the opposition but the Senate is the enemy,” Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) said. “The Senate, I think, was properly chided.”

- The Senate narrowly approved a $1.9 trillion increase in the federal debt ceiling Thursday after days of failed attempts to reach agreement on any long-term plan to rein in the trillion-plus-dollar deficits now facing the government. The 60-39 roll call split the chamber sharply along party lines and, at one level, represented a last gasp of the fading 60-vote supermajority enjoyed by Democrats prior to losing a seat in a Massachusetts special election last week. The House must next act on the measure, but Democrats are hoping for quick approval there, since the bill would mean that lawmakers don’t have to face another politically difficult debt vote before the November elections.


Washington Examiner:

- The victory of a Democrat in the special election to fill Vice President Gerald Ford's House seat in February 1974 was a clear indication that the bottom had fallen out for the Republican Party. Brown's victory last week looks as if something similar has happened to the Democratic Party. Many people ask me whether the Democrats are in as much trouble as they were in 1994. The numbers suggest they are in much deeper trouble, at least at this moment.


Reuters:

- South Korea's KOGAS said on Thursday it would invest $1.05 billion in an Iraq oil project its consortium won a right to develop. The consortium, which is led by Russia's Gazprom and also includes Malaysia's Petronas and Turkey's TPAO, will invest a total of $3.52 billion to pump 170,000 barrels of oil per day from the Badrah oilfield in eastern Iraq, KOGAS said in a statement. The deal will allow KOGAS to secure 1 million barrels of oil a year.

Telegraph:

- Gold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble. Mr Soros, arguably the most famous hedge fund manager in history, warned that with interest rates low around the world, policymakers were risking generating new bubbles which could cause crashes in the future. In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."


Financial Post:

- Gord Nixon, chief executive of Royal Bank of Canada, is warning that the effort by governments around the world to hammer out a set of standards for the financial services sector is starting to implode. The regulators and politicians who are supposed to be in charge have been following their own interests in recent weeks instead of working toward the common goal of preventing a repeat of the financial crisis, Mr. Nixon said in an interview with the Financial Post. Mr. Nixon praised Canadian regulators and government officials, saying they have done a good job of trying to steer the discussions in the right direction. He said the push to politicize the issue is mostly coming from the United States and Europe.


China News:
- China’s central bank raised deposit reserve requirement ratios for several commercial banks with “aggressive” mortgage loans, citing Liu Yihui, a research with the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-Cap Growth (-1.86%)

Sector Underperformers:
Semis (-4.12%), Computer Hardware (-3.11%) and Education (-2.68%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

QCOM, HRS, PCU, PT, FCX, KEX, CBT, AZN, TTEK, SYMC, PSSI, JBHT, ABFS, MLNX, RDEN, LRCX, GEOI, VSEA, KLAC, EWBC and TROW


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) TM 2) LNCR 3) GNW 4) NOV 5) TXT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Value (-1.13%)

Sector Outperformers:
Banks (-.43%), HMOs (-.43%) and Telecom (-.51%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
NFLX, DLX, PG, MCK, SNE, NOK, CHKP, TI, FFBC, UTHR, ALGN, GNTX, CTXS, GMCR, COLB, WRLD, LIFE, CCMP, ODFL, EURX, ESIO, AMGN, AMZN, EBIX, CWCO and EQT


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) RCL 2) SIRI 3) GMCR 4) NFLX 5) QCOM

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Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Greece is benefiting from investor perception that European neighbors would "step in" to prevent a government debt default and safeguard the region's creditworthiness, said Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Investors pushed up credit default swaps on Russian debt to as high as 1,116.7 basis points in October 2008 when S&P cut its outlook for Russia's BBB+ credit rating to "negative" in the wake of a five-day war with Georgia and the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. When S&P cut Greece's rating to the same level last month, swaps on its debt reached 289.2 basis points. "It won't be just a Greek problem if they fail, it'll be a problem for the whole of Europe," said Kazuaki Oh'e, a bond salesman in Tokyo at Toronto-based CIBC. "They are in trouble, but not so serious as to default. If the problem gets worse, the ECB, or Germany or France will step in."

- Peter Madoff, brother of imprisoned con artist Bernard Madoff, is the subject of a U.S. criminal investigation, his lawyer said in a civil lawsuit over losses by the charitable foundation of U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg.

- Chinese toys and sneakers headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc.(WMT) and Target Corp.(TGT) on the U.S. East Coast may bypass Warren Buffett’s $33.8 billion railway as the expansion of the Panama Canal slashes the cost of shipping them by sea. The deeper, wider canal will allow A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, China Ocean Shipping Group Co. and other lines to ship more cargo directly to New York and Boston instead of unloading it on the West Coast for trains and trucks to finish the journey east. That could save exporters 30 percent, the canal operator said. The $5.25 billion Panama Canal project, scheduled for completion during its centennial in 2014, may take business from ports including Los Angeles and Seattle, and railroads including Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. It costs as much as $1,000 more per cargo container to use trains than ships, said Lee Sokje, a shipbuilding analyst at Mirae Asset Securities Co. in Seoul.

- The US dollar rose to a six-month high against the euro before U.S. reports that economists said will show durable goods orders gained and initial jobless claims fell, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to raise interest rates. “With Hoenig sounding relatively hawkish, they are a bit more upbeat than people had expected,” said Danica Hampton, a senior strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “The U.S. dollar is going to find a bit more support. I think that will be further supported with the U.S. GDP data.” “European sovereign risks are still dominating sentiment, suggesting interest rates there will likely stay low,” said Yuji Saito, director of the foreign exchange department at Calyon Bank in Tokyo. “The trend is for the euro to be sold.”


Wall Street Journal:

- President Barack Obama, seeking to recapture the promise of change the propelled him to the White House, returned to his pledges to remake Washington after a bruising first year that saw his approval ratings drop and his ambitious agenda founder. Pivoting to address an issue that has hurt the president and his party, Mr. Obama spent the heart of his address pledging to help spur job growth and the economy. He reiterated in strong terms his desire to see Congress pass the ambitious legislation last year, starting with a revamp of financial rules. He urged lawmakers to press on with the health care overhaul, a topic that has divided Washington, and one he turned to in the speech's second half.

- How would you grade President Obama's State of the Union speech?

- Hope, Change and Regret in Omaha. Obama Peeled Away a Red-State Electoral Vote by Winning Here in 2008, but Some Locals Say Their Enthusiasm Is Waning.

- The Latest AIG Story. Will regulators ever coherently explain why AIG could not be allowed to go bankrupt in September of 2008? At yesterday's House hearing, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and predecessor Hank Paulson said they didn't bail out AIG to save its derivatives counterparties. Instead, said Mr. Geithner, the now-famous 100-cents-on-the-dollar buyouts of credit default swap contracts were necessary to prevent a further downgrade of AIG by credit-ratings agencies. This topic probably deserves another hearing on its own. Remember, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where Mr. Geithner was president, had by that time already seized AIG. We're guessing that a ratings agency is pretty comfortable with the creditworthiness of a firm 79.9%- owned by Uncle Sam. Yet Mr. Geithner is saying that the same credit raters that applied triple-A ratings to tranches of junk mortgages somehow got the yips when the world's most respected borrower was standing behind AIG. If the agencies had applied to AIG the credit rating of its new owner, there wouldn't have been much need to send more collateral to such counterparties as Goldman Sachs. Instead, AIG could have demanded the return of some of the collateral it had already posted. Bad news for those counterparties. More broadly, the hearing showed that the story of why AIG could not be allowed to fail continues to change, which inspires little confidence that Washington can be trusted with new powers to identify and address systemic risk. Yesterday Messrs. Geithner and Paulson went further than ever in stating that the real systemic risk was to AIG's heavily regulated insurance businesses. Their testimony directly contradicts that offered to Congress by former New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo, who was AIG's principal insurance regulator at the time. Last year Mr. Dinallo told the Senate that "The main reason why the federal government decided to rescue AIG was not because of its insurance companies." He was so confident in the health of the AIG subsidiaries that, before the federal bailout, he was working on a plan to transfer $20 billion of their excess reserves to the parent company. We're not sure that policyholders were really in danger, but Mr. Dinallo and other state regulators deserve a chance to respond on the record, and under oath. If yesterday's testimony is true, the real systemic risk was not in unregulated markets where the danger is obvious, but in markets where regulation created the illusion of safety.

- Journal technology columnist Walt Mossberg weighs in with initial impressions of the iPad. He talks with Stacey Delo in this video about the Apple(AAPL) device’s design, app compatibility, battery life and surprisingly low price — something he says could cause problems for Dell(DELL), Hewlett Packard(HPQ), Lenovo and other PC makers developing rival tablets.

- Netflix Inc.'s (NFLX) fourth-quarter profit climbed 36% on higher sales and margins, and the company added more than 1 million subscribers during the quarter to reach its year-end target of 12.3 million. Shares jumped 13% to $57.75 in after-hours trading as the online DVD-rental pioneer's earnings topped its forecast while revenue was in line with guidance.

- Flat-screen maker LG Display Co. (LPL) has received a large volume order for displays used in Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) tablet-style device called the iPad, a person familiar with the situation said Thursday.


NY Times:

- The Apple(AAPL) iPad: First Impressions.


Fox Business:

- $1.5 Trillion Ways to Cut the Deficit. First in a three-part series on Fixing America. Don’t you feel that if you hear another rant about the deficit, about reckless spending, about the Supersize-me government, without policy ideas to fix this mess, that your head is going to explode? Don’t you feel like you are grinding your teeth into Tic Tacs every time you hear these debates? Fox Business is changing the debate. We found $900 billion to $1.5 trillion worth of ways to trim the fat marbled throughout government. And these are items that government officials say should be cut. Government officials whose salaries are paid for with taxpayer dollars are spending their days telling taxpayers how the government can cut waste. But instead of cutting $1.5 trillion, the government now wants to raise the nation's debt ceiling by $1.9 trillion to pay its bills. If it passes, the national debt would reach $14.3 trillion, equal to the size of the U.S. economy.


Business Insider:

- Confused about the ongoing AIG(AIG) controversy? Don't be any longer. Professor Linus Wilson has put together this helpful chart showing exactly how the bailout went down, complete with which banks got how much.

- Geithner and Co. have taken a lot of heat for withholding information regarding AIG(AIG), its derivatives counterparties and how much the associated payouts were in regard to collateral calls. No more. Below is the infamous "Schedule A" document in all its un-redacted glory. Needless to say, the numbers will blow your mind.


Business Week:

- Toyota Motor Corp.’s(TM) image as the highest-quality automaker may have been permanently tarnished after an accelerator-pedal defect halted sales of the models that account for more than half its U.S. deliveries. Toyota’s “reputation for long-term quality is finished,” Maryann Keller, senior adviser at Casesa Shapiro Group LLC in New York, said today in an interview. “People aren’t going to buy Toyotas, period. It doesn’t matter which model. What’s happened is sufficient to keep people out of the stores.”


Politico:

- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday floated the idea of a two-track plan for health care reform — with Congress pursuing easier-to-pass incremental changes now and comprehensive reform later. “We believe that it’s possible to have comprehensive health care reform as we go forward, but at the same time, it can be on another track where some things can just be passed outside of that legislation, and we’ll be doing both,” Pelosi said in an interview with POLITICO. Though the Democrats’ loss of Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat has complicated efforts to get the 60 votes they need for a sweeping health care bill, Pelosi insisted that comprehensive reform is still on the agenda. “We have to get it done,” the speaker said. “What the process is doesn’t matter. The outcome is what is important, and what it means to working families in America.”


Rasmussen Reports:

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).

- Twenty-nine percent (29%) of U.S. voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This is the lowest level of voter confidence in the nation’s current course so far this year.


Reuters:

- Proxy materials have been delivered to Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB) by Carl Icahn, as the billionaire investor seeks greater control of the biotechnology company's board, according to a source familiar with the situation.

- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR) posted higher-than-expected quarterly results, driven by increased sales of the high-margin coffee refill packs used in its single-cup brewers, and raised its full-year outlook. Shares of the company were up 3 percent at $82.49 after the bell.

- Qualcomm Inc's (QCOM) target for current-quarter earnings and revenue and full year revenue missed Wall Street expectations, and its shares fell 9.8 percent on concern about lower phone prices and fears of a slower-than-expected mobile chip market recovery.

- Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS) partners will be paid 60 percent of their 2009 bonuses in stock and the rest in cash, Dow Jones reported, citing a person familiar with the situation.

- Short interest on the Nasdaq rose 2.3 percent in the first half of January, the exchange said on Wednesday, suggesting an uptick in bearish sentiment in the stock market. As of January 15, short interest rose to about 6.55 billion shares from 6.4 billion shares as of December 31. This makes up 3.89 days' average daily volume, compared to 3.2 days in the previous period, the exchange said.


Financial Times:

- US finance chiefs are growing more confident in the near-term fortunes of their companies and the broader economic outlook, according to a fourth-quarter survey published on Thursday. Companies in the US will this year boost capital expenditure by 9 per cent and build inventory by 2.5 per cent, according to a poll of 371 chief financial officers conducted by Financial Executives International, a corporate finance lobby group, and Baruch College. Those polled estimated revenues would increase by 10 per cent and net profit by 22 per cent in the next 12 months. This is almost double the levels of growth they forecast in the third quarter of 2009, as cost cutting last year begins to boost 2010 margins. When asked in the third quarter to rate their optimism for the US economy and their companies between zero and 100, CFOs responded with an average score of 54.2 and 64.1 respectively. However, in the latest survey the score rose to 57 and 67.1 respectively. “This quarter tells us that modestly increased optimism is beginning to be carried forward into specific plans,” John Elliott, dean of Baruch’s Zicklin School of Business, told the Financial Times. However, in spite of the optimism, two-thirds of those polled said the first year of the Obama administration had weakened their outlook for the US economy.

- Why we should expect low growth amid debt.


Commercial Times:

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. may have filled its expected order book for the first half of the year, citing equipment makers.


Yonhap News:
- The U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday it will terminate currency swap lines with the central banks of South Korea and several other countries next week amid growing signs of economic recovery and stabilizing global financial markets.


Evening Recommendations

Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (NKE), target $75.

- Reiterated Buy on (PX), target $99.

- Reiterated Buy on (STI), target $24.

- Reiterated Buy on (OI), target $40.

- Reiterated Buy on (VAR), target $58.

- Reiterated Buy on (UTX), target $80.


Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +2.0% on avg.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 107.0 +3.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.79%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.58%.


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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (LLL)/1.85

- (DLX)/.58

- (LCC)/-.48

- (D)/.61

- (CELG)/.62

- (RCL)/-.05

- (BDX)/1.20

- (OXY)/1.25

- (QSII)/.46

- (LMT)/1.99

- (RTN)/1.24

- (F)/.26

- (EK)/-.18

- (PG)/1.36

- (MOT)/.08

- (ZMH)/1.08

- (MO)/.39

- (T)/.51

- (MMM)/1.21

- (CA)/.42

- (RHI)/.05

- (MXIM)/.15

- (KLAC)/.28

- (MSFT)/.60

- (SNDK)/.69

- (JNPR)/.25

- (CB)/1.46

- (AMZN)/.72

- (CELG)/.62

- (OXY)/1.26

- (BAX)/1.03

- (EL)/1.17

- (OSK)/1.02

- (JBHT)/.32

- (LLY)/.91

- (BMY)/.42

- (CL)/1.18


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December is estimated to fall to -.40 versus -.32 in November.

- Durable Goods Orders for December are estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +.2% gain in November.

- Durables Ex Transports for December are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +2.0% gain in November.

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 450K versus 482K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4593K versus 4599K prior.


Upcoming Splits

- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
- The EIA natural gas inventory report, Treasury's 7-year Note Auction, BofA Merrill Gaming Conference and the (KMP) analyst meeting
could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and technology stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.