Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Rising Financial Sector Pessimism, Technical Selling

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 27.11 +10.52%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 -22.62%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.24 +26.53%
  
• NYSE Arms 2.14 +149.64%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 119.53 +4.36%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 209.98 +10.52%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 320.0 +2.14%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 271.55 +3.78%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.0 unch.
  
• TED Spread 44.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.02% -2 bps
  
• Yield Curve 192.0 -10 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $118.40/Metric Tonne +1.28%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.0 +.2 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 -4 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -93 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +214 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my Biotech, Tech and Medical sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish, as the S&P 500 trades back below its 200-day moving-average on more Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, rising global growth worries, rising financial sector pessimism, technical selling and more shorting. On the positive side, Utility, HMO and Restaurant shares are higher on the day. Lumber is up +.71%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -1.45% and Gold is falling -1.09%. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Oil Service, Ag, Steel, I-Bank, Homebuilding and Energy shares are under sigificant pressure, falling more than -3.0%. Cyclial shares are relatively weak. (XLF) has underperformed throughout the day. Oil is flat and copper is dropping 2.06%. The 10-year yield is falling -14 bps to 2.17%. Major European equity indices fell 3-4% today. The Germany sovereign cds is jumping +10.81% to 84.67 bps, the France sovereign cds is surging +10.3% to 176.0 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is climbing +7.97% to 339.17 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is rising +12.5% to 444.33 bps, the China sovereign cds is jumping +6.65% to 125.41 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is gaining +8.74% to 269.17 bps and the UK sovereign cds is gaining +13.12% to 83.0 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is gaining +5.11% to 142.19 bps. Rice is still close to its multi-year high, rising +31.0% in about 4 months. The Italian/German 10-year yield spread surged another +22.21 bps today to 406.79 bps, which is a new all-time high. The TED spread continues to hit new cycle highs and is at the highest since June 2010. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since July 2010. The 2-Year Euro Swap spread is still very close to its recent highs, which is also noteworthy considering the recent strong equity advance. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -38.3% since February 16th and -34.6% since Sept. 7th. Given the amount of negative news over the weekend and recent sharp equity gains, US stocks are holding up pretty well so far. I continue to believe investor complacency regarding the intermediate-term situation in Europe, and thus the global economy, is still fairly high. The vast majority of investors appear to believe that hedgie performance-chasing, a "kick the can" European debt "solution" and seasonality will continue to boost stocks substantially into year-end. While I can see one more surge in stocks over the coming weeks, I suspect the rally may falter before year-end as large outperforming funds reposition for 1Q and more global economic uncertainty. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising financial sector pessimism, rising European debt angst, global growth fears, profit-taking, more shorting and technical selling.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Stocks, Italian Bonds Decline Amid Bailout Concern; Yen Tumbles. Stocks retreated from an almost three-month high as Italian and Spanish bonds fell amid concern European leaders will struggle to raise funds to contain the region’s debt crisis. The yen sank from a post-World War II record against the dollar after Japan intervened in the market. The MSCI All-Country World Index lost 2 percent at 11:51 a.m. New York time, trimming its monthly rally to a record 12 percent, as Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), BNP Paribas SA and Morgan Stanley (MS) dropped more than 5.6 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1.3 percent. Italian five-year yields rose 17 basis points to 5.92 percent. German bunds and U.S. Treasuries advanced. The yen tumbled as much as 4.6 percent against the dollar, the most since 2008. Copper fell 2.3 percent in London. Stocks declined, led by banks, following the biggest weekly gain since 2009 after China’s official news agency Xinhua said the country can’t play the role of “savior” for Europe. Equities rallied on Oct. 26 amid speculation China might invest in the European rescue fund. The yen slumped after Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said the government took steps to weaken the currency. Stocks and commodities also fell after a unit of MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) filed for bankruptcy. “Some of that rally that we’ve seen were on comments that China would provide support to Europe,” Mark Bronzo, who helps manage $23 billion at Security Global Investors in Irvington, New York, said in a telephone interview. “If you get a comment saying that they can’t be viewed as a savior, the market will react,” he said. “MF Global declaring bankruptcy is certainly not a positive for the perception about the financial sector.”
• Europe Inflation Unexpectedly Stays at 3%, Jobless Rises. European inflation unexpectedly remained at a three-year high and unemployment increased, complicating the European Central Bank’s task of bolstering the region’s faltering economy. The inflation rate in the euro area held at 3 percent in October, the same as in the previous month, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said in an initial estimate today. That’s the highest rate since October 2008. European unemployment unexpectedly rose to 10.2 percent in September from 10.1 in August, according to a separate report.
• Spain Economy Stalls in Third Quarter, Adding to Government's Difficulties. The Spanish economy stalled in the third quarter as unemployment surged, adding to the Socialist government’s difficulties three weeks before a general election. Gross domestic product stagnated from the previous quarter, when it grew 0.2 percent, the Bank of Spain in Madrid estimated today. “It will be very difficult to meet the deficit goals without additional austerity, which might push the economy back into recession,” said Ben May, a European economist at Capital Economics in London. Unemployment, which was 21.5 percent in the third quarter, may rise as high as 25 percent, he forecast. The yield on Spain’s benchmark 10-year bond, which touched an intraday euro-era record of 6.46 percent on Aug. 2, rose to 5.65 percent at 10:30 a.m. in Madrid, pushing the premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds instead of German debt of the same tenor to 353 basis points. Spain’s Ibex-35 main share index fell 1.3 percent.
• Bond Risk Increases as Doubts Mount Over European Rescue Plan. The cost of insuring against default on corporate and sovereign debt rose in Europe as confidence in the region’s rescue plan waned. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 50 companies with mostly junk credit ratings jumped 32.5 basis points to 650, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. at 2:30 p.m. in London. The index dropped 110.5 basis points last week with a decline signaling improved perceptions of credit quality. The region’s largest banks may raise just a tenth of the total capital shortfall estimated by regulators, according to Morgan Stanley. Efforts to boost the bailout fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) with the help of China and cooperation of the International Monetary Fund may also prove difficult. “It’s the traditional reaction where it’s all very exciting at first and then everyone calms down, sobers up and realizes that actually nothing has changed,” Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV’s “The Pulse” with Maryam Nemazee. “At the moment really we don’t know much more than we did before the grand plan.” The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments increased 15 basis points to 305 basis points. Contracts on Italy increased 38 basis points to 443, according to CMA. Spain widened 26 basis points to 342, Ireland rose 28 basis points to 707, and France was 18 higher at 176 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings was up 9.25 at 159 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers added 13.5 basis points to 221 and the subordinated gauge was 26.5 higher at 418.5.
  
• Weidmann Says EU Hasn't Found Lasting Debt-Crisis Solution. European Union countries caught up in the debt crisis must cut budgets and carry out structural reforms to ensure a lasting end to the turmoil, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a column in Handelsblatt. Putting into practice last week’s EU decisions to recapitalize banks, ease Greece’s debt and leverage the euro area’s rescue fund requires enforcing strict conditionality on any aid, Weidmann, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, said in a commentary published in the Dusseldorf-based newspaper today. EU leaders left the currency union’s future shape unclear by increasingly taking on joint risk while leaving budget powers with national governments, the German central bank head wrote.
• MF Global Files for Bankcruptcy Protection. MF Global Holdings Ltd., the holding company for the broker-dealer run by former New Jersey governor and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-chairman Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt. The New York-based firm listed total debt of $39.7 billion and assets of $41 billion in Chapter 11 papers filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Its finance unit, MF Global Finance USA Inc., also filed, with debt of as much as $50 million and assets of as much as $500 million.
• Business Activity in U.S. Grows as Factories Accelerate Economic Recovery. Business activity in the U.S. expanded in October at about the same pace as in the prior month, a sign overseas demand and business investment will help keep the economy expanding. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer decreased to 58.4 in October from 60.4 the prior month.
• Oil Pares Biggest Monthly Rally in Two Years as Dollar Climbs. Crude oil dropped in New York as the dollar climbed and equities fell, trimming the biggest monthly gain in more than two years. Futures fell as much as 2.1 percent after Japan stepped in to foreign-exchange markets to weaken the yen against the dollar, making commodities priced in the U.S. currency less attractive to investors. Stocks retreated from a three-month high on concern European leaders will struggle to raise funds to contain the region’s debt crisis. Crude oil for December delivery declined $1.14, or 1.2 percent, to $92.18 a barrel at 10:13 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 16 percent this month, the biggest gain since May 2009.

Wall Street Journal:

• MF Global(MF): Margin Calls Threatened Liquidity.
• Herman Cain Calls Harassment Allegations 'Totally Baseless'. Herman Cain said Monday he was accused of sexual harassment while head of the National Restaurant Association during the 1990s, but called the allegations “totally baseless and totally false.”

CNBC.com:

• EU Leaders Didn't Listen on Debt: Trichet. Too many European Union leaders did not understand the gravity of the Greek debt situation following years of failure to adhere to rules on borrowing, the outgoing boss of the European Central Bank told CNBC. “I have to say that since the very beginning, it is something that was potentially very important, and again that one should not underestimate the gravity of a situation. We were not, I have to say, pleasing a lot of interlocutors, including the governments that had a tendency to say — no, it's not that important, it's not a big deal — and so forth,” Jean-Claude Trichet said.

Business Insider:

• You Won't BELIEVE How Much Money Jon Corzine Could Walk Away With From MF Global(MF). A major contributor to the firm's downfall: Outsize risks taken by Corzine, as it bet heavily on European debt last year, something that obviously hasn't gone so well. So what happens when the firm goes bust, Corzine leaves, and lots of other people lose their jobs? DealBook reported that Corzine's severance package could allow him to walk away with around $12 million in the event of a sale.
• Now Check Out All The Ways Jon Corzine Is Connected To Democrats And Obama.
• The Complete List of MF Global(MF) Creditors.
• ANOTHER Solyndra: Beacon Power Files For Bankruptcy, Potentially Leaving Taxpayers On The Hook For Millions. Beacon Power, a Massachusetts-based clean energy company, filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday Reuters reported, potentially leaving taxpayers on the hook for up to $43 million.
• John Hussman Shreds The Latest European Bailout.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Moody's Turns Moody on Europe, Sees Bailout Risks Spreading. Hidden among the detritus of last night's MF headlines and JPY Azumification, Moody's released their Weekly Credit Outlook.
• Demand For EFSF Paper Collapses As World Wakes Up To Post Bailout Hangover.
• Presenting the Bond That Blew Up MF Global(MF). (graph)
  

TickerSense:

• Blogger Sentiment Poll: Bullish 66.67%, Bearish 14.81%.
  

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20 (see trends).

Reuters:

• Italian Yields Jump on Uncertainty Over Euro Plan.

Telegraph:

• The Two Halves of the Eurozone Are Locked In A Broken Marriage. One by one, the democracies of Southern Europe are being broken on the wheel of monetary union.

Sky TG24:

• Italy's labor market reforms may spur violence, Labor Minister Maurizio Sacconi said as European leaders ramped up demand that Italy's government do its part to combat the region's debt crisis. "Today I see a sequence of verbal violence, to spontaneous violence, to organized violence that I hope doesn't lead to death again," Sacconi said in an interview, referring to the 2002 murder of Marco Biagi, an economist who advised the government on changing labor laws.

Talouselaemae:

• Finland is ready to assess adding a clause into European Union treaties on how a country could leave the single currency, citing government documents.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-1.62%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -6.04% 2) Oil Service -3.51% 3) Steel -3.40%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BMA, VLO, NIHD, HES, UNS, HNT, IART, CYOU, AUXL, SOHU, DWA, SQI, MSTR, ASML, GMCR, ARII, TZOO, ELGX, ESIO, OPEN, FEIC, AWAY, YHOO, SYMC, CQP, HAE and IART
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALL 2) TGT 3) FXY 4) MOO 5) XLB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) ACI 3) FOSL 4) CP 5) TREX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (-1.0%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs +.48% 2) Restaurants +.27% 3) REITS -.23%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MNTA, SPPI, VPRT, HRBN, BGS, HUM and SHAW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BBBY 2) DISH 3) HLF 4) BBY 5) WDC
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ACI 2) KEG 3) JNPR 4) LMT 5) BLL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• EU May Struggle to Keep Euphoria as Scrutiny Deepens Following Debt Summit. European leaders may struggle to maintain the euphoria that drove the euro to its biggest one-day gain in more than a year as scrutiny deepens on their latest attempt to stem the region’s turmoil. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet called for “swift implementation” if financial stability is to be restored, Germany’s Bild Zeitung reported in an extract of an interview to be published tomorrow. The weaknesses of Europe’s common currency area, ranging from its design to a persisting dearth of bank funding and anemic economic growth, weren’t properly addressed in this week’s accord to stem investor panic, said Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff and Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “My read of this is that the markets are cheered that they’re still alive,” Rogoff, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist, said as a compensated speaker at the Bloomberg FX11 Summit in New York Oct. 27. “Even in a fairly short period, doubts will start to grow again.”
• Europe Seeking Crisis-Fighting Funds Faces Resistance Before Cannes G-20. European governments are running into initial resistance as they seek to use this week’s Group of 20 summit to turn early praise for their revamped crisis- fighting strategy into financial support. The G-20 leaders convene Nov. 3-4 in Cannes, France, a week after euro-area authorities pledged to magnify the capacity of their rescue fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) and look beyond their borders for help in doing so as they combat the debt turmoil posing the biggest threat to global growth. While the help of China and cooperation of the International Monetary Fund were immediately sought, pledges of hard cash are proving hard to come by as G-20 members press for more details of the plan. In an indication Europe may eventually prevail, an official in Brazil’s government said it’s in talks with Russia, India, China and South Africa -- the so-called BRICS -- about possible joint assistance. “Unless European leaders can flesh out some of these details very quickly, it’s hard to see the rest of the G-20 coming on board with very great enthusiasm,” said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former IMF economist.
• Europe Might Have Blown Last Chance to End Its Crisis: View. The euphoria over Europe’s latest rescue package faded quickly. Now the question is whether European leaders will ever agree on measures needed to end the sovereign debt crisis, and whether they will get another chance. The magnitude is all wrong. Even if put in place, the plan would reduce Greece’s debt by less than 50 percent, raise about 100 billion euros in new capital and boost the guarantee capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility to about 1 trillion euros. As Bloomberg View has pointed out, sovereign writedowns should be much steeper. And Europe needs a war chest of at least 3 trillion euros to ensure recapitalizations and cover the financing needs of euro-area governments.
• EU Pact Changes Possible Within a Year, German Minister Says. The European Union should be able to construct a new stability agreement within 12 months, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said in an interview published in the Frankfurter Rundschau and Berliner Zeitung today. The current design of the Economic and Monetary Union is a “toothless tiger” and changes must be made to avoid a new debt crisis every few years, the newspapers quoted Westerwelle as saying. The changes can be made within the next year, he said in the interview.
• China to Demand Concessions for Europe Bailout Fund, NYT Reports. China will probably demand significant concessions from European countries in return for investment in the region’s bailout fund, according to the New York Times, without saying where it got the information. These may include financial guarantees and limits on trade policies, the newspaper reported. China may ask Europe to drop its criticism of its currency valuation policies, according to the report.
• Canada May Boost Asia Oil Sales If Keystone Blocked, Globe Says. Canada will look to boost oil exports to Asian countries such as China if the U.S. blocks TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported, citing Canadian Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver. The $7 billion pipeline would deliver crude from the oil sands of Canada to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The State Department, which has jurisdiction because the project would cross an international boundary, plans to decide whether to grant approval by year-end. Canada wants to diversify its customer base and China could be a “key” customer in the future, the Globe and Mail reported. “China has emerged as the largest consumer of energy in the world, so it is utterly obvious what we must do,” the newspaper cited Oliver as saying in an interview yesterday. Keystone could be “modified” if it fails to get U.S. approval, or other projects to ship oil to the U.S. could emerge, the newspaper cited Oliver as saying. Oliver will “soon” travel to China to take part in a mining conference, and will discuss energy while he is there, the newspaper reported.
• Funds Lift Bullish Bets Amid Best Rally Since 2009: Commodities. Speculators boosted wagers on higher commodity prices by the most since August as improving prospects for growth in the U.S. and Europe sent prices toward their biggest rally in more than two years. Money managers boosted combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 13 percent to 831,421 contracts in the week ended Oct. 25, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials has jumped 10 percent in October, on track for the biggest gain since May 2009.
• Yahoo(YHOO) Said to Lean Toward Dividend, Buyback Instead of Sale. Yahoo! Inc. is leaning toward selling its Asian assets and redistributing the proceeds to shareholders, rather than selling itself to a group of buyers, according to five people familiar with the situation.
• Syria Clashes Kill 30, Assad Warns West. In Syria, clashes over the weekend in Syria killed 31 civilians and 30 soldiers, Al Jazeera reported. Any move by the West to interfere in Syria would create “another Afghanistan” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with the U.K.’s Sunday Telegraph newspaper as Arab League foreign ministers called for an end to violence in the country. Foreign intervention in Syria would “burn the entire region,” Assad told the newspaper. “Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans?”
• China to 'Firmly' Maintain Property Curbs: Wen. China will “firmly” maintain its property curbs and “fine tune” other economic policies at an appropriate time, according to a statement following a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao. Local authorities should continue to strictly implement the central government’s real-estate policies in the coming months to let the citizens see the results of the curbs, according to the statement on Oct. 29. The government will “fine tune” its economic policies by “an appropriate degree and at an appropriate time,” it said. “It demonstrates to local governments and developers the central government’s determination to tighten the property market,” said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Property curbs are at the critical stage now, so the policies shouldn’t and wouldn’t be relaxed, because there has been no concrete data showing home prices dropped a lot,” said Shen Jianguang a Hong Kong-based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. “But everything else from money supply to investment has fallen a lot.” China’s inflation rate remained above 6 percent for a fourth month in September.
• Sarkozy Attacked in France for Seeking China's Help for Europe. French President Nicolas Sarkozy came under fire from opposition leaders for seeking China's help to resolve the euro area's debt crisis. "It's shocking," Martine Aubry, the general secretary of the Socialist Party, said in the Sunday newspaper, Journal du Dimanche. "The Europeans, by turning to the Chinese, are showing their weakness. How will Europe be able to ask China to stop undervaluing its currency or to accept reciprocal commercial accords?"
• Profits Beat Estimates for 11th Quarter as Analysts See Rally. American companies are beating Wall Street profit estimates for the 11th straight quarter, enough to revive a bull market that analysts say will eclipse any rally in the past 12 years. A total of 220 out of 295 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies that reported results since Oct. 11 have exceeded forecasts for the third quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Price targets for companies in the index from more than 10,000 estimates suggest the S&P 500 will advance 13 percent to 1,447.93 in a year.
• China Shuffles Financial, Securities Regulators. China moved its securities regulator Shang Fulin to head the nation’s banking watchdog, overseeing a 106 trillion-yuan ($17 trillion) industry that includes four of the world’s 10 largest lenders by market value. Shang’s appointment as chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission to replace Liu Mingkang is part of the biggest reshuffle of financial officials in a decade. China Construction Bank Corp. Chairman Guo Shuqing will become head of the securities watchdog and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. Chairman Xiang Junbo will take the top job at the insurance regulator, the government said on Oct. 29.
• MF Global(MF) Faces Pivotal Days as Firm Mulls Sale. MF Global Holdings Ltd., the company run by Jon Corzine that last week reported a record loss, had two of its credit ratings cut to junk and drained bank lines, faces a pivotal few days as the futures broker pitches itself to potential buyers to avert failure.

Wall Street Journal:

• German Finance Minister Plays Down Summit Success. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble played down the impact of the European Union's latest deal on stemming the euro-zone debt crisis, according to a pre-release of an interview he gave to Der Spiegel magazine. "The summit last week brought us a good bit further," Schaeuble was quoted as saying. "But it will not have been the last meeting on this issue." Europe still has a long way to go before all of the problems related to the euro-zone debt crisis will be solved, he said. Schaeuble also urged the Italian government to quickly implement the reforms it has announced. "Italy has announced that it is prepared to execute reform, now (these words) must be carried out. Announcements alone don't help," Schaeuble was quoted as saying. He said Italy must reduce its budget deficit, slash public debt, and promote economic growth. "Italy needs structural reforms of its labor market and social security systems," said Schaeuble. "Italy must convince markets that it is willing and determined to quickly address and implement the necessary reforms." Turning to Europe's banks, Schaeuble warned that if banks don't voluntarily participate in the planned swap of Greek bonds in an effort to restructure Greece's debt, they could be forced to do so. "We have always said that we prefer a voluntary haircut," said Schaeuble. "But we have also said that a less consensual path cannot be ruled out." According to Der Spiegel, Schaeuble said the alternative to agreement is disagreement, and that would have considerable consequences for private-sector creditors.
• Radiation Cleanup Confounds Japan. Nearly eight months after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident scattered radioactive material over surrounding communities, Japan still is struggling to figure out how to clean up the mess, exacerbating fears about health risks and fanning mistrust of the government.
• Companies in Europe Are Pulling Back. The financial turmoil rattling governments and banks in Europe is further weighing on the already-sluggish outlook for business in the region. Even though euro-zone governments' latest package of measures to combat the crisis, agreed upon last week, appears to have warded off a financial crash for now, some damage already was done to many companies in Europe. Growing uncertainty regarding the outcome of the turmoil, coming after the global financial crisis and recession, has caused customers to hold off on purchases.
• California's New Green Tax. As the world retreats from cap and trade, Sacramento signs on.
• What Business Wants From Washington. America works best when government creates a stable environment for competition.

Marketwatch.com:

• Iron-Ore Price Drop May Hit Australia Hard. Iron-ore spot prices have come under pressure lately, and a steep, sustained downturn in prices for the industrial resource could have notable implications for the Australian economy.
• Halloween Comes Early for Chinese Real Estate. When dealing with China, action can often speak louder than official numbers, especially when that action involves protests.

CNBC:

• Europe Will Not Offer China Concessions for Aid: Juncker.
• Investors Should Avoid Groupon IPO: Barron's.
  

Business Insider:

• John Mauldin On Europe's Plan With No Details, Portugal Turning Into Greece, And CDSs Needing More Transparency.
• Yen Plunges Big-Time After Japan Intervenes In The Market.
• Meet The Mysterious Trading Firms Who Control The Price Of Commodities.
• After 2 Weeks With Siri, It's Already Changed The Way I Live My Life.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Presenting The Capeless Crusader: The Deficit Super Committee.

LA Times:

• As Many as 13 Americans Killed in Afghanistan Suicide Bombing. As many as 13 Americans were killed Saturday when a suicide bomber struck an armored military bus in Kabul, in the single deadliest attack on U.S. citizens in the Afghan capital since the war began a decade ago.

eWeek:

• YouTube, Google(GOOG) TV Challenging Cable Companies With 100 Channels. Google's YouTube video unit is rolling out 100 professional channels to compete with cable companies. Ideally, users would access Google TV to watch the channels.

Cape Cod Times:

• Luxury Car Lot in China Reflects Debt Crisis. For a glimpse of the unfolding debt crisis that many fear could be China's future, take a trip to the used-car market in this gritty industrial city on the coast. A half-dozen Mercedes-Benzes, an equal number of BMWs, several Porsches, a Range Rover, a Rolls-Royce and a Hummer, most just a few years old and in pristine condition, were there on a recent day. Their owners were all Wenzhou factory bosses who needed to sell their luxury cars for cash to pay back their business loans. "It's because of the credit crisis," said Ma Jianrui, who runs one of the used-car shops and has seen his business booming. "They need money quickly." Many economists fear that the crisis not only could devastate Wenzhou but also may be a portent of what China could be facing on a vastly larger scale: a massive amount of accumulated debt that could rival the subprime crisis in the United States that triggered a larger recession. Most is private debt amassed by small and medium-size companies, economists said, but a portion is personal household debt. Any precise figures are largely guesswork, they said.

Reuters:

• BoE's Tucker: UK's Dip Into Recession Possible - Paper. A double-dip recession in Britain remains "within the bounds of possibility," Bank of England policymaker Paul Tucker was quoted as saying in an interview in the Saturday edition of The Times newspaper.
• Portugal Wants U.S. Help in Euro Crisis: Source. Portugal asked Mexico on Saturday to tell fellow G20 members next week that the United States should offer "financial help" to resolve the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, describing it as a "systemic and global" problem, a Portuguese government source said. Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho asked Mexican President Felipe Calderon to convey the message during the G20 meeting in Cannes next week, the source told reporters after the two leaders met at the Ibero-American summit in Paraguay. "The crisis isn't in the euro zone. It is a systemic and global crisis and we hope that other big G20 countries intervene," the source told reporters in the capital Asuncion, speaking on condition of anonymity. The source added that Washington should help resolve the crisis "by boosting trade and also with financial help." No one from Calderon's delegation in Asuncion could immediately be reached for comment. Financial markets rallied strongly this week after European leaders hammered out a deal to recapitalize their banks, boost the firepower of a euro zone rescue fund, and impose hefty losses on holders of Greek debt. However, economic analysts quickly warned that details of the rescue could still take weeks or even months to work out. Portugal is suffering a deepening recession as it implements painful austerity measures under a 78-billion-euro ($110.3-billion) EU/IMF bailout.
• Draghi Over-Interpreted on Bond Buys, Says Trichet. Markets have over-interpreted comments by incoming European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi on the bank's readiness to go on buying the bonds of troubled euro zone states, outgoing ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said. In a wide-ranging interview at the end of his eight-year term, Trichet welcomed what he saw as a commitment by euro zone governments at a summit last week to intervene in bond markets via the EFSF rescue fund to fight the bloc's debt crisis. The ECB embarked on its own bond-buying programme in May of last year but the plan has proven controversial, leading to the resignation of two leading German policymakers at the bank, and Trichet has appeared keen to withdraw from the policy. Draghi seemed to take a different stance last week, appearing to signal that the ECB stood ready to go on buying bonds, intervening in debt markets to lower the borrowing costs of countries snared by the crisis. Trichet said too much had been read into Draghi's comments. "I don't think that Mr Draghi said that," he said of the message understood by financial markets that the ECB would go on buying bonds. "I think there has been an over-interpretation," he added, looking out from the 32nd floor of the ECB's Frankfurt headquarters. The confusion over Draghi's message highlights the importance of communicating ECB policy -- an area where Trichet has largely succeeded, delivering a clean, consistent message that has endeared him to financial markets.

Financial Times:

• Asset Sales a Dilemma for Europe's Banks. European banks are not strong enough to sell off thousand of billions of euros worth of assets without capital injections, says Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor.
• Schauble Calls for EU Lead on Tobin Tax. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, wants the European Union to take the global lead in introducing a financial transaction tax to curb speculative trading, along with tougher regulation of big banks and the “shadow” banking sector, such as hedge funds. If the UK blocked agreement on such a tax in the full EU, he said in an interview with the Financial Times, the eurozone should press ahead on its own.

Telegraph:

• China Warns It Cannot 'Cure' Eurozone's Debt Crisis.
• Why the Latest Eurzone Bail-Out is Destined to Fail Within Weeks. The eurocrats, of course, lack the guts to trim back monetary union to a more manageable size. Too much face would be lost. So "euroquake" fears, once viewed as outlandish, are gaining pace. Despite Thursday's deal, and all the reassurances of a "durable solution", the Italian government on Friday paid 6.06pc for 10-year money, up from just 5.86pc a month ago and a euro-era high. Such borrowing costs are disastrous, given that Rome must roll-over €300bn of its €1,900bn debt in 2012 alone. A default by Italy, the eurozone's third-biggest economy, and the eighth-largest on earth, would make Lehman look like a picnic. The eurozone must be consolidated. World leaders should similarly force European banks to disclose their losses, we all take the hit and then we move on. Instead, we are served-up, in ever more complex variants, the same "extend and pretend" non-solutions. It gives me no pleasure to write this, but I give this deal two weeks.

Daily Mail:

• Two-thirds of Britons want powers repatriated from the European Union, citing a poll by Harris Interactive.

Der Spiegel:

• German industry opposed letting China help the euro area because the country may use the aid to influence European politics, Hans-Peter Keitel, head of the BDI Federation of German Industries, said. Keitel said Europe needs to achieve stability on its own and it would be a "huge mistake" to allow outside influence, the report said.

Der Tagesspiegel:

• The European debt crisis still threatens growth in European and the U.S., Goldman Sachs Inc.'s(GS) chief economist said in an interview. European economic data remain weak and "contagion is still always a risk" for the U.S. economy, Hatzius said. Goldman forecast a slight recession in the euro area for the fourth quarter of 2011 and first quarter of 2012.

Ansa:

• The European Union and IMF are considering a "safety net" for Italy and Spain, citing a person familiar with the situation. The "contingency plan" is being discussed by international financial institutions, including central banks, to prevent contagion from the debt crisis spreading.

La Repubblica:

• The Italian Banking Authority plans to write a letter of protest after the European Banking Authority called for banks to raise capital. Italian banks don't need $21 billion, double that of French banks and triple the amount for German banks, according to the newspaper.

Il Foglio:

• Austerity 'Isn't in My Vocabulary,' Berlusconi Says. Berlusconi said in a letter published today that he was committed to more effective competition rules, social mobility and not to depressing the economy. The world austerity "isn't in my vocabulary," he wrote.

Corriere della Sera:

• Italy wants to protect jobs and isn't trying to make lay-offs easier, Labor Minister Maurizio Sacconi said in an interview. Italy was asked to revamp its legislation on dismissals in July by institutions including the ECB, citing Sacconi.

The Economic Times:

• Fixing India Trade Imbalance: Import Curbs on China Likely as Deficit Grows. NEW DELHI: India's widening trade gap with China has triggered an alarm in the government, forcing it to brood over a host of measures to restrict imports from the country. The commerce department has hammered out a "China Strategy" that calls for higher tariffs on most Chinese goods while proposing a complete ban on specific items, like power and telecom equipment. It also suggests making it mandatory for Chinese firms to enter into joint ventures with Indian companies before they could import heavy equipment and machinery from the country. The move comes as India's trade deficit with China, its biggest trading partner, jumped 160% to $23.9 billion in the five years to 2010-11.

Beijing Times:

• China's Railway Ministry has delayed payments totaling 130 billion yuan to China Railway Engineering Corp. and China Railway Construction Corp. because it doesn't have the funds, citing Wang Mengzhu, a senior engineer at the Chinese Academy of Engineering. More than 90% of railway construction projects have been suspended due to lack of "capital support" amounting to more than 10,000 kilometers of track, Wang said.

Xinhua:

• China to Maintain Its Family Planning Policy: Official. China will adhere to its family planning policy so as to maintain a low reproduction rate, said the country's family planning chief on Sunday, expected to be the eve of the world's population reaching seven billion. "Over-population remains one of the major challenges to social and economic development," said Li Bin, director of the State Population and Family Planning Commission in an exclusive interview with Xinhua, adding that the population of China will hit 1.45 billion in 2020. Li said maintaining and improving the existing family planning policy and keeping a low reproduction rate, along with addressing the issues of gender imbalance and an aging population, will be the major tasks in the future.

Financial News:

• Ba Shusong, a researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center, said growth of the nation's gross domestic product may be slower as the country's export growth may moderate on "big" impacts from a "more complicated" external economic environment.

Weekend Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 171.0 +2.5 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 146.0 -1.25 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures -.60%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.67%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.69%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (SHAW)/.57
• (HUM)/2.03
• (ALL)/.09
• (AVB)/1.18
• (APC)/.66
• (FST)/.26
• (PPS)/.44
• (CNA)/.10

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for October is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus 60.4 in September.

10:30 am EST'

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for October is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -14.4 in September.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• None of note
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as profit-taking, global growth worries and technical selling offsets less global debt angst, short-covering and lower food/energy prices. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.