Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,416.18 +.50%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,416.18 +.50%
• DJIA 13,025.58 +.12%
• NASDAQ 3,010.24 +1.46%
• Russell 2000 821.92 +1.83%
• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 358.11 +1.43%
• Russell 1000 Growth 659.40 +.74%
• Russell 1000 Value 703.78 +.44%
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 835.79 +.76%
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,007.51 +.45%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 662.85 +.74%
• Transports 5,119.11 +1.33%
• Utilities 454.12 +3.07%
• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 87.81 +1.36%
• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.75 +.99%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,054.15 +.15%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 801.38 +.37%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 158,653 +1.20%
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 186 +285
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 33.33 unch.
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 137,254 -22.8%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,522,133 +1.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.17 +31.46%
• OEX Put/Call 1.44 +182.35%
• ISE Sentiment 90.0 -20.4%
• NYSE Arms .88 +109.5%
• Volatility(VIX) 15.87 +4.82%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.64+.98%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.53 +.93%
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,974.20 +1.65%
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.612 Trillion +.40%
• AAII % Bulls 40.9 +14.3%
• AAII % Bears 34.4 -15.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 298.98 -.03%
• Crude Oil 88.91 +.74%
• Reformulated Gasoline 273.03 +.40%
• Natural Gas 3.56 -8.58%
• Heating Oil 306.07 -.62%
• Gold 1,712.70 -2.23%
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 216.64 +4.81%
• Copper 365.0 +3.43%
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 304.33 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.60 USD/Ton -2.77%
• Lumber 340.10 +7.29%
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,617.96 +1.28%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.4% -40 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3697 +8.87%
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.0 +.38%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.10 -4.3 points
• Fed Fund Futures imply 58.0% chance of no change, 42.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/12
• US Dollar Index 80.15 -.08%
• Yield Curve 137.0 -5 basis points
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.62% -7 basis points
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.834 Trillion-.69%
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.57 +3.01%
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.0 +.36%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 105.33 -8.09%
  
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 167.90 -5.04%
  
• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 140.0 -7.01%
• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 500.0 +9.64%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 386.0 -12 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42% +2 basis points
• TED Spread 23.5 +1.0 basis point
• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 -.25 basis point
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.75 +2.5 basis points
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 99.45 +.21%
  
• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 160.21 -.21%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 237.46 -6.0%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.
• M1 Money Supply $2.406 Trillion +.90%
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.60 +2.80%
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 405,300 +9,000
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.32% +1 basis point
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 838.90 -.85%
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -33.0 +.9 point
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.20% +80 basis points
• Nationwide Gas $3.40/gallon -.03/gallon
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 41.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,086 -.37%
• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,122.90 -1.93%
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.69%
• Rail Freight Carloads 194,538 -21.9%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.06%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.44%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +4.39%
• Alt Energy +4.26%
• Networking +3.97%
• I-Banking +3.84%
• Internet +3.32%

Lagging Sectors

• Homebuilders -1.48%
• Restaurants -1.49%
• Computer Services -1.74%
• Coal -2.23%
• Gold & Silver -2.37%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• SHS, GMCR, BLOX, RAH, EXPR, TIVO and SMTC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• BKS, MCF, CAP, HITK, JOSB and TFM
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Slightly into Final Hour on Fiscal Cliff Worries, Rising Global Growth Fears, Eurozone Debt Angst, Cyclical Stock Weakness

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  
• Volume: Below Average
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 16.11 +6.97%
• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -27.5%
• Total Put/Call 1.16 +16.0%
• NYSE Arms 1.26 +54.97%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.57 -.69%
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 160.19 +.04%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 105.33 bps -.60%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.43 bps +.85%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 +.75 basis point
• TED Spread 23.50 +.5 basis point
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
• Yield Curve 137.0 +1 basis point
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.90/Metric Tonne -1.11%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.10 -.8 point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +59 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Hollande Mittal Push Risks Hurting Economy by Spooking Investors. President Francois Hollande’s threat to nationalize an ArcelorMittal (MT) steel plant, while saving 600 jobs, may curb the creation of new employment by reinforcing France’s notoriety as a difficult place for business. Hollande has given Lakshmi Mittal, the chief executive officer and biggest shareholder of the world’s largest steelmaker, until Dec. 1 to either keep jobs at the plant, sell all of it or face its nationalization. Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg, who kicked off the week by saying Mittal is no longer wanted in France, says he’s found a buyer for the whole site, including the part Mittal would like to keep. The tactics are the strongest yet by the French government in a long list of attempts to preserve jobs at home. They come as foreign direct investment inflows have halved in five years, local companies are holding off spending and jobless claims are at their highest in 14 years.
• Italy Unemployment Rose to Highest in 13 Years in October. Italy’s unemployment rate rose more than expected in October to the highest level in 13 years as businesses refrain from hiring after the recession entered its second year. The unemployment rate rose to a seasonally-adjusted 11.1 percent from 10.8 percent in September, Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. Economists had predicted a reading of 10.9 percent, according to the median of eight estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Unemployment remained above 10 percent for a ninth month.
• Brazil GDP Grows at Half Forecast Pace as Investment Dives. Brazil’s economy expanded in the third quarter at half the pace forecast by economists, as government stimulus efforts fail to revive investment that fell for the fifth straight period. Rate futures plunged. Gross domestic product grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, the national statistics agency said today in Rio de Janeiro. That was less than the forecasts of all 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg whose median estimate was for a 1.2 percent expansion. “Today’s report was awful,” Neil Shearing, who was forecasting below-consensus 1 percent growth as chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics Ltd., said by phone from London. “The really disappointing thing about today’s data is that despite all the policy stimulus over the past year, it’s clear the economy is still struggling to get going.”
• The Economy's Improving? Tell Small Business. According to a Gallup poll out Friday from Wells Fargo (WFC), small business owners’ confidence fell the most since the fall of 2008. The quarterly index, based on responses from 600 business owners, dropped 28 points as more businesses reported declining revenues, payrolls, and capital investment, both in the last 12 months and in their expectations for the year ahead.
• Recession Left Baby Bust as U.S. Births Lowest Since 1920.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Boehner: Fiscal Talks at Stalemate. House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) declared talks between the White House and Congress to avert the fiscal cliff at a “stalemate” Friday, as lawmakers from both parties hardened their positions the day after Republicans rejected a White House offer to address fiscal concerns. Mr. Boehner and other top Republicans roundly panned the White House offer, delivered to Capitol Hill by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday in a series of meetings with Democratic and Republican leaders. House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R., Va.) said the proposal was not a “serious offer,” while Mr. Boehner said the White House plan is the “wrong approach.” “There’s a stalemate, let’s not kid ourselves,” Mr. Boehner said. “Right now, we’re almost nowhere.”
• Fiscal Cliff: Live Stream.
• U.S., Europe to Huddle on Google(GOOG) Probes.
• Noonan: The Drawn-Out Crisis: It's the Obama Way. The president seems to prefer frustration to good-faith negotiation.

CNBC: 

• French Socialist in Mittal Row: We're Just Doing What Obama Does. The French politician who said Indian steel company ArcelorMittal should leave the country has told CNBC that his government is only acting like U.S. President Barack Obama.

Zero Hedge:

• Europe's Recessionary Collapse Beating Even Most Optimistic Expectations. (graph) Eurozone October unemployment just hit a record 11.7%, up 0.1% from September (we are trying to get data if the Eurozone is gaming its unemployment number the way the US does by collapsing its labor participation rate), with Italy unemployment surging to 11.1% from 10.8%, on expectations of a 10.9% print, French consumer spending in October was down 0.2%, compared to an unchanged reading in September, but far more troubling was that German retail sales imploded at a rate of 2.8%, the biggest monthly collapse in 4 years, and worse than even the most bearish forecast. 
• Chart Of The Day: The Wageless, Savingsless US Consumer. 
• Greece Shows What Happens When The Welfare Ponzi Ends. 
• Ugly Chicago PMI Best Captured By Respondent: "The Economy Really Seems To Be Hanging On A Thread". (graph)

Business Insider:

• The Windows 8 Sales Data Is In, And It's Horrible News For Microsoft. 
• The Amazingly Scary Depth Of The EU Recession. 
• Rick Santelli Went Totally Nuts On CNBC And Walked Off Camera Live. (video) 
• The Strongest Area Of The Economy Has Been The US Consumer — And Three Recent Signs Don't Look Good. 
• French Companies Have Started Demanding Nationalization. 
• GUNDLACH: 'I'm Waiting For Something To Go Kaboom'.

Reuters: 

• UN chief 'horrified' by Syrian violence. The 20-month conflict in Syria has reached "new and appalling heights of brutality and violence" as the government steps up its shelling and air strikes and rebels boost their attacks, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Friday. 
• Egyptians protest after draft constitution raced through. Tens of thousands of Egyptians protested against President Mohamed Mursi on Friday after an Islamist-led assembly raced through approval of a new constitution in a bid to end a crisis over the Islamist leader's newly expanded powers. "The people want to bring down the regime," they chanted in Tahrir Square, echoing the chants that rang out in the same place less than two years ago and brought down Hosni Mubarak.
• Canada's economy disappoints in third qtr, outlook dim. Canada's economy lost some fizz in the third quarter as exports suffered their biggest drop in three years and businesses scaled back investments, though the slowdown is unlikely to knock the Bank of Canada off its rate-hike stance. The economy grew at a weaker-than-expected 0.6 percent annual rate in the July-September period, after two straight quarters of 1.7 percent expansion, according to Statistics Canada data on Friday.

Financial Times:

• It’s 2007 again, thanks to the US Fed. High-yield bond and loan market issuance year to date in both the US and Europe stands at about $570bn – on a par with the peak five years ago. Almost 30 per cent of all junk bonds have few terms, a new high, according to data from JPMorgan, while debt issuance for the purpose of paying the owners dividends is also above 2007 levels. Issuance of collateralised loan obligations this year will come in at about $45bn, more than the past four years combined.

Telegraph:

• Eurozone unemployment hits record high of 11.7pc. Recession in the eurozone forced a further 173,000 people out of work during October and pushed the unemployment rate to a record high of 11.7pc.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.55%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -1.90% 2) Gold & Silver -1.71% 3) Education -1.65%
  

Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:

• NTLS, VRSN, CCOI, PBR, IMO, BAP, YUM, GCO, HITK, ZUMZ, GWRE, OVTI, TIF, BAP, SLCA, CBRL, BSFT, ABMD, KAR, JOSB, ADES, RGR, PIR, DPM, EBS, RRC, EIG and EXP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CTIC 2) YUM 3) VRSN 4) NTAP 5) COST
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CSX 2) JCP 3) BA 4) ZNGA 5) BK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.11%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +.41% 2) I-Banks +.35% 3) Telecom +.31%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PCS, ACTV, YOKU, ULTA and WLT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SE 2) VRSN 3) SVNT 4) DG 5) WLT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HITK 2) STJ 3) VMED 4) GD 5) CAG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume