Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 16.59 +7.31%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.50 -.02%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.10 +.10%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 +5.46%
- ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -18.18%
- Total Put/Call 1.09 +15.96%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.98 +1.11%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 147.59 +1.62%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.93 +3.56%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 292.98 -.33%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.75 basis point
- TED Spread 24.25 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1 basis point
- Yield Curve 230.0 +1 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne -.38%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +4.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.20 +2.0 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +125 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Banks’ Off-Balance-Sheet Risks Come Under Basel Scrutiny. Banks
are set to face a broad
international leverage limit that will catch off-balance sheet
risks and prevent them from hiding their debt, according to the
head of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The Basel group is
seeking to put a ceiling on indebtedness that will prove robust no
matter how complicated a bank’s business model, Stefan Ingves, its
chairman, said in an
interview.
- European Stocks Retreat as U.S. Government Shutdown Looms. European stocks declined the most in a month, trimming the best quarter in four years, as the U.S. faced the first government shutdown in 17 years and Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta fought to save his administration. UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), Italy’s biggest banks, dropped more than 1 percent as the nation’s benchmark FTSE MIB Index slid 1.2 percent. Rio Tinto Group led mining companies lower after a measure of Chinese manufacturing missed a preliminary estimate. Aryzta AG rallied the most in six months as the Swiss supplier of bakery products reported results that
topped projections. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.6 percent to 310.46 at
the close of trading, the biggest drop since Aug. 30.
- Abe Bets It’s Different This Time With Sales Tax Rise. It’s different this time. The four
most dangerous words in markets, according to former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. With Japan set to raise its sales tax for the first time since 1997, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s political future rides
on a different outcome than last time -- when the nation slid
into a recession and the premier lost his job.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
- When clock strikes midnight, does the government really shut down? Maybe not. Washington is bracing for the clock to strike midnight, with a
government shutdown expected if Congress cannot strike a budget deal --
but despite the frenzy, the government might not turn into a pumpkin
right away. Everybody is talking about a midnight deadline, because that is the
official time that all discretionary spending (which is the portion that
Congress controls) halts as the federal government rolls over from
fiscal 2013 to fiscal 2014 on Oct. 1. That doesn't mean that everything stops immediately, however.
CNBC:
- Market has more to worry about than the shutdown.
The U.S. government can't stay closed forever, so by definition its
threat to financial markets is temporary. Other headwinds, though, could
present more lasting damage. At least three and as many as five challenges face investors once the
smoke clears from the bruising Washington battle over funding the
government.
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
- Unilever warns slowdown in emerging markets has accelerated. Anglo-Dutch
consumer goods
company Unilever warned on Monday that a slowdown in its emerging
markets had accelerated in the third quarter and it now expects
underlying sales growth of 3 to 3.5 percent in the period. Developed
markets remained flat to down, it said, and overall Unilever said it
was on track to meet its 2013 priorities. It attributed the emerging
markets slowdown to a significant currency weakening. "We continue to grow ahead of our markets and expect
underlying sales growth to improve in quarter four," Chief
Executive Paul Polman said.
- Brazil central bank sees inflation high despite weak growth.
Inflation in Brazil will remain stubbornly high well into 2015 even as
the economy struggles to gain steam, the central bank said on Monday,
raising market bets for higher borrowing costs in the future. In its
quarterly inflation report, the bank lowered its 2013
inflation forecast to 5.8 percent from 6 percent previously.
However, it revised its inflation view for 2014 to 5.7 percent
from 5.4 percent previously and said it expects inflation at 5.5
percent in the third quarter of 2015. The bank also revised down its estimate for economic growth
to 2.5 percent for this year from a previous 2.7 percent
forecast. The bank sees growth keeping that pace until the
second quarter of 2014.
Valor Economico:
- Brazil to See Credit Squeeze as Public Banks Retreat.
Echoing fears that
European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance –
recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks,
but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the
legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion)
private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative
sovereign-bank feedback loop.
In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of
capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning:
"There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some
Thursday and a big country is in trouble.
"And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the
ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.
While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true
The Daily Reckoning:
Haaretz:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Energy -1.22% 2) REITs -1.03% 3) Agriculture -.88%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- END, BP, PTR, RJET, AFOP, EGHT, ANGI, PNRA, CLVS, RP, SSI and ZINC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) ACHN 2) MPC 3) CAR 4) FDO 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) APC 2) XOM 3) MON 4) ORCL 5) DAL
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Medical Equipment +.14% 2) Oil Tankers +.09% 3) Hospitals +.06%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SOHU, KONG, HNR, REMY, RDA, FINL, CERN, HALO, NKE, NVDQ, TFSL, TSL, SWIR and BERY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) ZIOP 2) FDO 3) IP 4) SH 5) NFX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) INTC 2) JCP 3) AAPL 4) M 5) FB
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Government Shutdown 1 Day Away as Deal Evades Lawmakers.
The Senate will reconvene tomorrow afternoon, when it will reject a
House plan passed early today to delay and limit President Barack
Obama’s Affordable Care Act. In response, the House would add “another
provision” to the spending measure and send it back to the Senate, said
Representative Kevin McCarthy, the top House Republican vote counter. The
provision would “reflect the House” and would be one “the Senate can
accept,” McCarthy of California said on “Fox News Sunday” without
offering details. A likely option would end the government’s contribution to
the health insurance of members of Congress and their staffs, as
a way of testing Democrats’ willingness to make any changes to
the health law, according to a leadership aide who spoke on
condition of anonymity to discuss party strategy.
- China Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Misses Preliminary Estimate.
A Chinese manufacturing index (EC11CHPM) rose less than analysts
forecast in September, unexpectedly weakening from a preliminary
estimate in a result that casts doubt on the strength of the economy’s
rebound. The Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 50.2 in September from 50.1 in August.
The final number was less than last week’s 51.2 preliminary
reading and the 51.2 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
A similar gauge from the government is due tomorrow.
- Rupiah Leads Emerging-Market Losses in Worst Quarter Since 2008.
Indonesia’s rupiah is leading declines in emerging markets this quarter
as the currency headed for its worst three-month performance since 2008
due to a record current-account deficit. Government bonds fell. The currency weakened 14.9 percent since the end of June to
11,658 per dollar as of 10 a.m. in Jakarta, the biggest loss
among 24 developing-nation exchange rates tracked by Bloomberg.
It fell 6.3 percent in September, the most since April 2009.
- Asian Stocks Fall, Paring Monthly Gain, Over U.S. Budget.
Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index paring its biggest monthly
gain since 2012, on concern the U.S. government is headed for a shutdown
amid a budget stalemate. Toyota Motor Corp., which gets 31 percent of
its revenue in North America, declined 2.6 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd.,
Australia’s biggest oil producer, dropped 1.4 percent as crude fell.
Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan’s third-largest bank,
lost 3.6 percent after its lending unit was penalized by Japan’s
banking regulator for failing to end transactions with “anti-social”
groups. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.4 percent to 138.87
as of 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with all 10 industry groups falling.
- Rubber Drops to 1-Month Low as Yen Gains on U.S. Budget Concern. Rubber dropped to the lowest level
in more than a month as the Japanese currency climbed against
the dollar, cutting the appeal of yen-denominated futures, amid
concern the U.S. government is headed for a partial shutdown. The
contract for March delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange lost as much
as 1.7 percent to 265.6 yen a kilogram ($2,717 a metric ton), the
lowest level since Aug. 23, and was
at 267 yen at 10:23 a.m. The drop pared gains for a most-active
contract to 13 percent this quarter, the best rally since the
three months through Dec. 31.
- Gold Bulls Raise Wagers Most in Month on Stimulus: Commodities. Hedge funds’ combined holdings in
gold futures rose the most this month as continued U.S. monetary
stimulus spurred investors to sell short contracts and sent
prices toward the first quarterly advance in a year. The net-long
position in bullion jumped 12 percent to 78,654 futures and options in
the week ended Sept. 24, the most since Aug. 27, U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data show. Long wagers gained 1.8 percent and short
bets fell 17 percent, the biggest drop in four weeks. Combined net-long
holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities climbed 1.7 percent,
the first gain in September.
- Europe’s Record Jobless Rate Seen Resisting Recovery.
Europe’s nascent economic recovery is too green to make any impact on
the region’s jobs market yet, according to economists. Unemployment in
the 17-nation euro area remained at a record high of 12.1 percent in
August, according to the median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg
News survey. The European Union’s statistics office is due to publish
the jobless numbers at 11 a.m. tomorrow in Luxembourg. “Europe is faced with a high level of structural
unemployment and this is not going to change any time soon,”
said Annamaria Grimaldi, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA in
Milan. “The recovery is happening painfully slowly and that’s
another reason why we’ll see jobless rates far above 11 percent
well into 2015.”
Wall Street Journal:
- Government Heads Toward Shutdown. Senate Doesn't Reconvene Until Monday Afternoon, Hours Before Deadline. The nation braced for a partial shutdown of the federal government,
as time for Congress to pass a budget before a Monday midnight deadline
grew perilously short and lawmakers gave no signs Sunday they were
moving toward a resolution. Leaders of both parties said they wanted to avoid the first federal
closure since 1996, but their public appearances seemed aimed more at
affixing blame for the impasse.
- Health Law Hits Late Snags as Rollout Approaches. Technical Problems Remain as Oct. 1 Deadline Nears. Obama administration officials scrambling to get the health law's
insurance marketplaces ready to open on Tuesday keep hitting technical
problems, while government-funded field workers across the country say
they aren't fully prepared to help Americans enroll in the program.
- Signs Raise Threat of a Red October. In the coming month, markets face four huge tests: the Washington
debt crisis, the release of September employment data, third-quarter
earnings releases and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.
All four of these horsemen could disrupt investments and some could
tank the market. Money managers hope all will be nonevents and stocks
will finish the year higher. But there are no guarantees.
Fox News:
- Israel's Netanyahu to warn US, UN about Iran's 'smiley campaign'. Just days after the first conversation between the leaders of the
U.S. and Iran in 34 years was hailed as a “breakthrough” in relations
between the two countries, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is
taking an unpopular message to the White House and the United Nations:
Don't be fooled by Tehran's “sweet talk.” Netanyahu, who contends Iran is using conciliatory gestures as a
smoke screen to conceal an unabated march toward a nuclear bomb, will
meet with President Obama Monday to deliver strong words of caution to
the U.S.
- With shutdown just hours away, Republicans say Democrat-led Senate a no-show. The countdown to a government shutdown is now marked by hours as the
Senate returns Monday afternoon to decide before midnight whether to
accept the Republican House’s weekend spending-bill offer, make a
counter-proposal or let the clock expire. House Republican leaders on Sunday chided Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid and others in the Democrat-led chamber for not hustling back
to Capitol Hill to negotiate, after the lower chamber early Sunday
morning passed its proposal, which includes a one-year delay on
ObamaCare. “O Senate, where art thou,” said Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn, riffing on the movie “O Brother, Where Art Thou.”
CNBC:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- Obamacare Is a Gigantic Shell Game.
Here's where the shell game comes in: the administration says that the
actual numbers of the insurance aren't important and what really matters
is how much people will pay after the subsidies. But subsidies aren't free. They
are paid for through higher taxes or greater deficit spending. And
these taxes are a dead weight on the economy that impede economic
growth. The dislocations are cascading through our economy. Millions
of hourly workers are having their full-time jobs cut to part time,
businesses are freezing hiring, spouses are losing coverage, major labor
unions are calling for repeal and Obamacare's premium taxes and other
costs are driving up the cost of insurance for everyone. This law is not
ready for prime time. Congress should delay the law for a year
and put together what both sides now know must be a bipartisan effort at
reform that works with, rather than against, our economy.
LA Times:
- 52% of Californians want $68-billion bullet train stopped, poll finds. A majority of voters want the California bullet train project stopped
and consider it a waste of money, even as state political leaders have
struggled to bolster public support and make key compromises to satisfy
critics, a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll found. Statewide, 52% of the
respondents said the $68-billion project to link Los Angeles and San
Francisco by trains traveling up to 220 mph should be halted. Just 43%
said it should go forward.
The poll also shows that cracks in voter support are extending to
some traditional allies, such as Los Angeles-area Democrats, who have
embraced the concept of high-speed rail as a solution to the state's
transportation problems.
AP:
- No. 2 nuke commander suspended amid casino probe. The No. 2 officer at the military command in charge of all U.S. nuclear
war-fighting forces is suspected in a case involving counterfeit
gambling chips at a western Iowa casino and has been suspended from his
duties, officials said.
Der Spiegel:
- Schaeuble
Prepares Rich Tax to Woo SPD in Coalition. Germany's Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble is preparing a proposal to increase maximum income
tax rate to 46% to 48%.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Bullish commentary on (MSFT), (BCO), (AMC) and (NOV).
- Bearish commentary on (SFM).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 155.50 +5.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 119.25 +3.0 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
- ISM Milwaukee for September is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 48.21 in August.
9:45 am EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for September is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 53.0 in August.
10:30 am EST
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing for September is estimated at 5.0 versus 5.0 in August.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Eurozone CPI report, Canadian GDP report, China Manufacturing PMI, RBA rate decision and the Johnson Rice Energy Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on US debt ceiling/govt shutdown worries, rising
European/Emerging Markets debt angst, more Mideast unrest, technical
selling, earnings concerns and profit-taking. My intermediate-term
trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
