Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,018.05 +2.72%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,018.05 +2.72%

• DJIA 17,390.50 +3.48%

• NASDAQ 4,630.74 +3.28%

• Russell 2000 1,173.51 +4.88%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.01 +3.69%

• Wilshire 5000 20,999.40 +2.84%

• Russell 1000 Growth 944.52 +2.78%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,005.97 +2.60%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 480.90 +1.77%

• Solactive US Cyclical 137.16 +2.14%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 976.41 +4.35%

• Transports 8,755.51 +2.18%

• Utilities 596.93 +2.27%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 106.88 +.28%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.17 +3.09%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,169.83 +1.12%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 986.12 +.43%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 227,686 +1.64%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -77 +131

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 36.70% +14.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 267,304 -4.57%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,476,289 +1.12%

• Total Put/Call .76 -13.64%

• OEX Put/Call .59 -38.54%

• ISE Sentiment 86.0 -31.75%

• NYSE Arms .71 -12.34%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.03 -12.91%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.86 -15.82%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.84 +6.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.73 -2.28%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,158.11 +2.21%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.628 Trillion +.23%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$4.696 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 49.4 -.6%

• AAII % Bears 21.1 -6.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 271.96 +.64%

• Crude Oil 80.54 -.94%

• Reformulated Gasoline 214.78 +.13%

• Natural Gas 3.87 +6.66%

• Heating Oil 251.09 +1.04%

• Gold 1,171.60 -4.84%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.22 +2.78%

• Copper 304.70 +.23%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 341.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.59 USD/Ton -1.11%

• Lumber 324.10 -3.66%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,250.51 +2.87%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.2% -220 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3029 -5.90%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.59 -.11%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.0 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.40 +4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.30 +.3 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/17

• US Dollar Index 86.92 +1.41%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.95 +2.73%

• Yield Curve 184.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.34% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.445 Trillion +.41%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.86 +14.25%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 172.0 unch.

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.80 -.62%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 63.59 -6.28%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 219.03 -3.65%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.50 -2.52%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 354.60 -1.30%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 244.50 -2.66%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 326.90 -.85%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93% +3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 23.25 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.0 -3.03%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.08 -.03%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 237.71 -6.88%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 85.0 -3.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.863 Trillion +.80%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,064.40 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 281,000 unch.

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.98% +6 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 386.10 -6.56%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.2 -.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.10% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.00/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,424 +19.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,018.25 -.27%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 278,767 +2.28%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +5.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.6%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +7.1%

• Computer Hardware +6.1%

• I-Banking +5.2%

• HMOs +5.0%

• Coal +5.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Tankers +.3% 

• Homebuilders -.9%

• Steel -2.4%

• Hospitals -2.9%

• Gold & Silver -14.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• RCPT, ESBF, DRIV, OMER, ABMD, USNA, VDSI, RGLS, CMCO, MDBX, ADPT, GIMO, CALX, BGFV, HVB, VNDA, SAPE, MMSI, MRCY, SPNC, ZLTQ, AMED, INGN, HMTV, MSG, SWI, RUBI and RGC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)

• MSM, CVLT, IMS, CRUS, WTW, PGI, ORB, EPIQ, RCAP, ATK, PRXL, XOOM, INVN, SRPT and AKBA

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.51 -.07%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.92 +2.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.73 +3.48%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.88 -1.83%

• ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -14.29%

• Total Put/Call .74 -22.92%

• NYSE Arms .87 -15.34% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.04 -2.69%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.08 -3.48%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.80 -4.42%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.59 -2.71%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.44 -1.27%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 326.90 -.33%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 22.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.

• Yield Curve 184.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $79.59/Metric Tonne -.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.0 -.8 point
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.40 -2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.30 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +641 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Ukraine Deal Gives Little Relief as War Set to Rumble On. Within hours of Ukraine’s gas deal with Russia, fighting flared up in the country’s easternmost regions, highlighting the challenges in bringing peace to the country after a year of upheaval. While the pact brokered by the European Union is designed to keep homes warm through the winter, rebels still hold large chunks of the country’s east and are planning a controversial election for Nov. 2. Crimea remains under Russian control and the Kremlin, bristling at an EU agreement Ukraine signed this year, is testing NATO with daily airspace violations.
• Russia’s Surprise Rate Increase Fails to Stem Ruble Drop. The ruble headed for the biggest drop since 2009 after a larger-than-forecast increase of Russia’s key interest rate failed to ease concern that the economy will remain hobbled by sanctions and capital flight. The Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 9.5 percent percent from 8 percent, according to a website statement. That surprised all 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The ruble stayed lower, extending its worst month in more than two years. 
• Falling Bank Deposits Add to China Economy Warning Signs. Chinese bank deposits dropped following a crackdown on lenders manipulating their numbers and “illicit” means of attracting money, threatening to weigh on credit growth and hinder efforts to reignite the economy. Four of the five biggest banks, led by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398), posted a drop in deposits as they reported third-quarter earnings this week. Central bank data showed it was the first quarterly decline for the nation’s banking industry since at least 1999.
• WPP Revenue Growth Slows as U.S. Ad Business Slackens. WPP Plc (WPP) reported slowing sales growth at the world’s largest advertising company in the third quarter, and said the end of the year wouldn’t be much better as business in North America and the U.K. cools. 
• European Stocks Rally After Bank of Japan Boosts Stimulus. (video) European stocks rose to a four-week high amid optimism the Bank of Japan’s stimulus will fill some of the gap left by the end of Federal Reserve bond buying. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.8 percent to 336.8 at the close of trading, boosting its weekly advance to 2.9 percent, the most this year. Barclays Plc and BNP Paribas SA led lenders higher, as all 19 industry groups on the gauge climbed. The equity benchmark dropped 1.8 percent in October, the most since June 2013, amid concern the European Central Bank’s asset purchases won’t be enough to revive the region’s economy.
• Brent Set for Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2002. Brent crude headed for a sixth weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 2002, as OPEC boosted production to a 14-month high amid a global surplus. West Texas Intermediate was on track for its biggest monthly decline in more than two years.
• OPEC in ‘Price War’ as Iraq Says Members Fight for Market. Members of OPEC, the group that supplies 40 percent of the world’s oil, are engaged in an internal price war as they seek to preserve their share of an oversupplied market, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said. “There is a price war within OPEC,” Abdul Mahdi told an evening session of the parliament in Baghdad yesterday, which was broadcast on state-run television. “The market’s fundamentals have changed, with an extra 3 million barrels a day of crude entering the market at a time when growth in China and India has slowed.” 
• Copper Declines After Freeport Workers Cancel Strike. Copper futures declined for the second straight day as workers called off a strike at Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s site in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest mine for the metal.

ZeroHedge: 

• The Next Time The BIS Wants To Warn About Monetary Kool-Aid, Bubbles, Lack Of Liquidity Or Complacency...
• Whatever You Do, Ignore These Signs.
• Starting Off Strong: Goldman Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 3.0% To 2.2%.
• Despite Plunge In Spending, Consumer Confidence Jumps To 7-Year High. (graph)
• Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations, Jumps To 12-Month High. (graph)
• Where Is The "Low Gas Price Spending Spree": Consumer Spending Tumbles At Fastest Rate Since October 2009. (graph)
• Goldman On BOJ's Banzainomics: "We Highlight The Potential For Harsh Criticism Of Further Cost-Push Inflation".

Business Insider:

• Virgin Galactic Spacecraft Crashes During Test Flight.

Reuters:

• China growth to slow to 5 percent over next year or so: London consultancy. China’s economic growth will slow sharply to 5 percent over the next year or so rather than close to 7 percent suggested by forecasts based on official statistics, according to a new indicator of growth momentum published by Fathom, a London-based consultancy.“Before he became premier, Li Keqiang had described GDP figures as unreliable. He suggested some alternative indicators to gauge the true health of the overall economy,” wrote Yiannis Koutelidakis and Laura Eaton, analysts at Fathom. “We have taken him at his word and put together our own China Momentum Indicator (CMI). It does not look good. It has dropped sharply, suggesting that growth is heading towards 5 percent over the next year or so. Indeed, it may already be there.”

Channel News Asia: 

• NATO warns Russia over Ukraine rebel polls. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Friday (Oct 31) against recognising elections staged by pro-Kremlin rebels in eastern Ukraine, saying Moscow continues to destabilise the country instead of backing peace efforts.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.84%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.70% 2) Homebuilders -.91% 3) Restaurants -.31%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AMBR, RM, AEGR, CCI, OFC, EPAY, TPX, ELLI, TRMB, COMM, MEP, DGI, COHU, FLML, SBUX, HPY, FNV, USLV, NEM, MJN, GOLD, BMY, SQI, AEM, UGLD, HPY, NWL and RSG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) SBUX 3) XME 4) LNKD 5) XRT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CCI 2) COMM 3) OHI 4) MDC 5) EPAY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Merkel Downplays Incursions as Russia Probes NATO Defense. German Chancellor Angela Merkel played down the significance of incursions by Russian jets as Vladimir Putin probed Europe’s air defenses for a third day. “In the last few months I’ve seen very robust exercises with the Russian army, but I’m not acutely concerned about grave airspace violations,” Merkel said at a press conference in Berlin yesterday. Allied jets tracked Russian fighter aircraft along Europe’s fringes, bringing the number of interceptions so far in 2014 to 100, three times last year’s total, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said in a statement.

• Russia Agrees to Terms With Ukraine Over Gas Supply. Russia agreed to terms for restoring natural-gas exports to Ukraine, laying the groundwork to prevent residents going without heat as temperatures drop. The gas negotiations, brokered by the European Union, came as pro-Russian rebels stepped up attacks on Kiev government forces. European leaders said they hoped the deal would help improve ties between the two countries. 

• Russia Seen Raising Rates as Ruble Plunge Feeds Inflation. Russia’s central bank will probably increase its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year, bringing it to the highest level since it was introduced 13 months ago, to halt a currency run that’s stoking inflation. The Bank of Russia will raise its key rate to 8.5 percent from 8 percent, according to 22 of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Two predict a move to 9 percent, with increases of a quarter-point and 75 basis points forecast by one analyst each. Five economists see no change. The central bank will announce its decision at about 1:30 p.m. in Moscow today. 

• Fed Exit Could Spark Slump in All Markets, ATP CEO Says. The head of Denmark’s biggest pension fund says his main concern now is how to ride out what may turn into a simultaneous slump across asset classes as central bank liquidity is withdrawn.

• Asia Stocks Rise, Extend Weekly Gain, as U.S. Growth Improves. Asian stocks rose after the U.S. economy grew faster than forecast and amid a report that Japan’s $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund will increase holdings of equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) climbed 0.4 percent to 140.82 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets opened in China and Hong Kong.

• OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low. OPEC countries boosted oil output to a 14-month high in October as crude futures sank into a bear market, a Bloomberg survey showed yesterday. Production by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed by 53,000 barrels a day to 30.974 million, led by gains in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Last month’s total was revised 14,000 barrels a day lower to 30.921 million because of changes to the Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Nigerian and Qatari estimates.

• Emerging-Market Currencies Hurt by Oil, Metals: Chart of the Day.

• Obamacare Faces New Threat as Supreme Court Weighs Appeal. The fate of President Barack Obama’s health-care law is again in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court. Two years after upholding the law by a single vote, the justices are weighing whether to hear a Republican-backed appeal that would block people in 36 states from getting tax subsidies to buy insurance. The justices are scheduled to discuss the matter tomorrow, with an announcement coming as soon as Nov. 3. 

• ConocoPhillips(COP) Becomes First to Cut Spending on Lower Oil. ConocoPhillips became the first major oil company to announce plans to reduce spending due to falling crude prices as drilling in some emerging North American fields becomes less profitable. The third-largest U.S. energy producer can meet its target to boost production by as much as 5 percent a year even as it reduces annual spending to below $16 billion, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance told investors today. U.S. oil prices have declined 24 percent from a high of $107.26 a barrel in June because of increased North American supplies and reduced global demand forecasts.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Big Banks Brace for Penalties in Probes. Citi Restates Earnings as It and Other Lenders Reserve Cash for Deal in Forex Investigation. Big banks in the U.S. and Europe are stockpiling billions to pay for a potential trans-Atlantic settlement of allegations that they manipulated foreign-exchange rates as talks heat up with regulators on both continents.

• Japan’s Inflation, Job Creation Slowdown a Blow to Abenomics. Japan’s inflation rate fell to its lowest in nearly a year and a measure of job creation worsened for the first time in more than three years, highlighting the divergence between developments in the economy and policy makers’ optimistic projections.

CNBC:

• Another stock exchange glitch, but no trading halt. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Hillary Clinton: "Businesses Don't Create Jobs" – Why She's Never Been More Wrong.

• Shadow Banking Assets Increase By $5 Trillion To Record $75 Trillion, 120% Of Global GDP. (graph)

• 3 Things Worth Thinking About.

• Algos Please Ignore: Citi(C) Slashes Previously Reported Net Income Due To "Legal Investigations" Over FX Rigging Probe.

• Goldman(GS) Warns Midterm Elections Raise Risk Around Fiscal Deadlines.

• Jim Grant On Complexity: The Hidden Cost Of Central Bank Actions.

• Russia Weaponizes The Arctic: Will Build 13 Airfields And 10 Radar Stations To Meet "Unwelcome Guests".

• Putin To Western Elites: Play-Time Is Over.

• Careful What You Wish For: Plunging Yen Leads To 140% Surge In Bankruptcies. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Poland Is Preparing For A Potential Russian Invasion.

• This Might Be The Most Horrific Single Atrocity ISIS Has Ever Committed.

• Starbucks(SBUX) Tumbles After Reporting Weak Earnings.

• GOPRO(GPRO) SHARES SPIKE AFTER EARNINGS BEAT.

• Chinese Authorities Are Shocked By The Results Of The Relaxed 'One Child' Policy. Far fewer Chinese couples applied to have a second child than expected after a relaxation of the country's "one child" policy, state-run media reported Thursday, highlighting the ageing nation's demographic challenges.

• See The Child Soldiers Of ISIS.

• Cash-Strapped Americans Are An Ominous Threat To Retailers.

Reuters: 

• US-based stock funds attract $8.8 bln over week, all in ETFs.

• LinkedIn(LNKD) revenue jumps 45 pct as companies hire more. Corporate networking site LinkedIn Corp reported a 45 percent rise in quarterly revenue as more businesses used its services to hire staff.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goaFed's Williams: Can't wait too long to raise rates

Australian Financial Review:

• Iron ore price forecast to fall to $US75/tonne. Analysts at research house Morningstar have become the latest to significantly lower their iron ore forecasts with more pain to come for local miners.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.5 +1.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.50%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AXL)/.62

• (BUD)/1.51

• (CBOE)/.54

• (CVX)/2.53

• (CLX)/1.03

• (D)/.95

• (XOM)/1.72

• (HLT)/.17

• (ITT)/.60

• (LM)/.33

• (NWL)/.55

• (OSK)/.82

• (SNE)/-156.14

• (WY)/.30

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The 3Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in 2Q.

• Personal Income for September is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in August.

• Personal Spending for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in August.

• The PCE Core for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in August.

9:00 am EST

• ISM Milwaukee for October is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus a reading of 63.18 in September.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for October is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus a reading of 60.5 in September.

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October is estimated at 86.4 versus a prior estimate of 86.4.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Canadian gdp report and the (BMY) investor event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.