Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 
 

  • Cruz, Sanders Win Wisconsin Vote in Setback to Front-Runners. Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat real estate mogul Donald Trump in Wisconsin’s Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, boosting the odds of a contested national convention in July, while Bernie Sanders claimed a victory over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest. Cruz and Sanders were declared winners by NBC and Fox News based on early returns and exit polls. Both candidates went into the night leading in surveys of Wisconsin voters and were looking to slow the front-runners by taking the state. The outcome marked perhaps the most consequential loss for Trump since Cruz beat him in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses that started the nomination race. If Trump is only able to win a few of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates, it could seriously damage his prospects for surpassing the threshold to win the nomination outright -- 1,237 -- while also diminishing his pitch as the party’s consensus candidate. With 20 percent of precincts reporting, Cruz had 52 percent of the vote to Trump’s 31 percent. Ohio Governor John Kasich, the other Republican still in the race, had 15 percent. The Democratic race was closer with Sanders holding a lead of 53 percent to Clinton’s 47 percent with 21 percent of precincts reporting.
  • China FX Losses up 13-Fold to $7.5B. (video)
  • Asian Stocks Fluctuate as Crude Rebound Buoys Energy Producers. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, after the regional benchmark index dropped to a one-month low, as energy companies surged with a rebound in oil while utilities slid. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 124.34 as of 9:14 a.m. in Tokyo, after rising as much as 0.1 percent.
  • The Coming Default Wave Is Shaping Up to Be Among Most Painful. When the next corporate default wave comes, it could hurt investors more than they expect. Losses on bonds from defaulted companies are likely to be higher than in previous cycles, because U.S. issuers have more debt relative to their assets, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Those high levels of borrowings mean that if a company liquidates, the proceeds have to cover more liabilities. "We’ve had more corporate debt than ever, and more leverage than ever, which increases the potential for greater pain," said Edwin Tai, a senior portfolio manager for distressed investments at Newfleet Asset Management. 
 Wall Street Journal: 
  • Wisconsin Primary: Live Coverage.  
  • Pfizer(PFE) to Walk Away From Allergan Deal. Dissolution to be announced Wednesday after Pfizer board voted to kill deal. Pfizer Inc. has decided to kill its planned $150 billion takeover of Allergan PLC, after the Obama administration took aim at a deal that would have moved the biggest drug company in the U.S. to Ireland to lower its taxes, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Trump, We Knew Ye. The Donald was never serious about the presidency in the Hillary sense. Donald Trump never wanted it enough. Though some will think it premature to write his presidential obituary while the Wisconsin results have yet to come in (thanks to our deadline) and while the GOP nomination contest is far from decided, in fact the obituary is overdue.
Fox News:
  • Cruz, Sanders projected to win Wisconsin primary. (video) Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Bernie Sanders were projected to win Wisconsin's presidential nominating contests Tuesday, disrupting Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's hopes of wrapping up the race any time soon. On the Republican side, Fox News projects that Texas Sen. Cruz will defeat Trump in Tuesday's primary, slowing the GOP front-runner's momentum after a rough week on the campaign trail for the New York businessman. Vermont Sen. Sanders, in the Democratic race, was projected to notch his sixth victory of the last seven primaries and caucuses –  also giving him significant momentum in advance of the New York primary in two weeks. Early returns show Sanders with 57 percent to Clinton's 43 percent in the state.
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
  • Bad news: Bond defaults are on the rise. (video) The default rate for high-yield bonds has risen to the highest level in six years, and a top bond analyst sees more bad news ahead for investors in so-called junk bonds. According to S&P's fixed income research team, 3.8 percent of companies with "speculative-grade" debt have defaulted over the past 12 months through March, which is the highest that rate has been since 2010. This as 12 companies with poor credit ratings (hence their "speculative" nature as well as their high yields) defaulted in March. 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Telegraph:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.0 +2.75 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.25 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.86 +.08%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.40%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (AYI)/1.57
  • (STZ)/1.14
  • (GPN)/.67
  • (MON)/2.42
  • (MSM)/.78
  • (SCHN)/-.26
  • (APOG)/.64
  • (APOL)/-.10
  • (BBBY)/1.80
  • (MRVL)/.09 
Economic Releases 
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,965,000 barrels versus a +2,299,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,295,400 barrels versus a -2,514,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -750,000 barrels versus a -1,075,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.26% versus a +2.0% gain prior.    
2:00 pm EST:
  • Fed releases minutes from March 15-16 FOMC meeting. 
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, China Services Index, Eurozone Industrial Production report and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Monday, April 04, 2016

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • China Inc.'s Record Foreign Deal Spree Shows Fear of Weaker Yuan. China Inc. can’t buy foreign companies fast enough, and the yuan’s trajectory helps explain why. The Chinese currency will weaken 3.3 percent versus the dollar by year-end, a Bloomberg survey of strategists found, with the world’s largest foreign-exchange trader Citigroup Inc. forecasting a 7 percent slide through 2017. The projections show the potential cost of delaying instead of dealmaking, and China’s firms are getting the message. The value of their offshore acquisitions reached $97.4 billion this year, already 80 percent of 2015’s record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “A lot of people in China are saying the yuan is going to weaken against the dollar so they take it out and put money into U.S. dollar investments,” Mark Mobius, chairman at the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said in an interview last week, forecasting “mild” depreciation of the currency. “There’s no question that Chinese companies want to become world class, which is why acquisitions make a lot of sense.”
  • Next Greater China Default Looms as Produce Supplier Flags Gap. China Green Holdings Ltd., a supplier of fresh produce that has lost money in the past two financial years, said it doesn’t have enough cash offshore to repay two bonds maturing April 12. The Hong Kong-listed firm has hired a financial adviser to ask noteholders to extend the interest and principal repayment on the two convertible securities beyond the maturity date, it said in an exchange filing dated April 4. It sold the two notes in 2013, each with a face value of 515.28 million yuan ($79.7 million) and an annual coupon of 7 percent and 10 percent. The bonds, which data compiled by Bloomberg show have a combined total 568.8 million yuan outstanding, are repayable in U.S. dollars.
  • IMF Warns of China Shock Spillovers. (video)
  • Basel Warns Against `Myopic' Calls to Ease Bank Capital Demands. Global regulators on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are pushing back against calls for them to ease capital requirements on lenders to stimulate lending. The job of the committee, which brings together regulators from Australia and China to Italy and the U.S., is to define minimum standards rather than to set out the “optimal level” of capital, Secretary General William Coen said in the text of a speech to be delivered Tuesday in Sydney. That approach doesn’t preclude individual jurisdictions from making tougher demands, if that is what they wish to do, he said.
  • Asian Stocks Fall With Oil as China Markets Reopen; Yen Climbs. Asian stocks slumped to a four-week low and emerging-market currencies weakened as investors reassessed last month’s rally in riskier assets. Oil declined for a third day, while the yen and Treasuries gained.Energy producers led losses in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, while the yen’s three-day surge weighed on Japanese exporters. Chinese equities slipped after a local holiday on Monday as Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures signaled a second day of losses in U.S. shares. South Korea’s won dropped 0.9 percent, while Australia’s dollar fell before a central bank policy meeting. U.S. crude slid a third day before U.S. government data forecast to show increasing stockpiles. Thirty-year Treasury yields declined to their lowest level since Feb. 25. The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge lost 1.3 percent at 10:01 a.m. in Hong Kong, set for its lowest close since March 2. Japan’s Topix slumped 2 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.7 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.3 percent.
  • Tesla(TSLA) Deliveries Miss Forecast as `Hubris' Hurts SUV Supply. Tesla Motors Inc. shipped fewer electric cars than it forecast in the first quarter, hurt by a new line of sport utility vehicles that was both short on parts and long on technology “hubris.” The automaker said it sold 14,820 Model S cars and Model X SUVs in the first quarter, short of the 16,000 it had predicted in February. Shares fell in late trading, giving back some of the gains Tesla had made since Thursday by exceeding all expectations on orders for a new, lower-cost car that will be available next year.
 Wall Street Journal:
  • Kicking the Oil Business When It’s Down. Rising regulatory scrutiny of banks that lend to energy companies is tightening the screws on fossil fuels. Crude oil prices have dropped precipitously over the past 18 months, and while there has been a recent uptick, the energy industry is struggling. Despite laying off workers, cutting capital budgets and refinancing debt, 45 U.S. oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015, with more expected to follow.
Fox News: 
  • Cruz reaches out to women voters, answers abortion questions on Fox exclusive. (video) Sen. Ted Cruz on Monday reached out to female voters, claiming Donald Trump seems to have "a problem with strong women" as the two prepared for Tuesday's Wisconsin primary. The Texas senator appeared to try to capitalize on Trump’s recent campaign missteps that seem to be alienating women voters, a crucial voting bloc to win a general election. “He seems to have a problem with strong women,” Cruz said on a special Town Hall edition of Fox News Channel’s “Kelly File.” “It’s going to be up to the men and women in Wisconsin” to decide who wins. “I could not be more encouraged by the enthusiasm.”
CNBC: 
  • A third of Indian firms' borrowing is currently stressed, India Ratings says. India has a big debt problem. A third of the country's 500 largest listed non-financial companies failed to earn enough to make interest payments in the financial year that ended March 2015, according to a new report from local ratings agency India Ratings and Research. The report, published last week, said in fiscal 2015, 178 out of the largest listed 500 corporate borrowers had an interest coverage ratio below 1. India calculates its fiscal year from April to March; fiscal 2015 ended Mar. 31, 2015, while FY17 began Apr. 1, 2016. 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 145.25 +1.0 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.25 +.75 basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.16 -.17%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.44%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (DRI)/1.20
  • (GBX)/1.56
  • (ISCA)/.40
  • (WBA)/1.28
  • (TISI)/.11 
Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -$46.2B versus -$45.7B in January.       
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Services PMI for March is estimated to rise to 51.2 versus 51.0 in February.    
10:00 am EST:
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated to rise to 54.2 versus 53.4 in February.
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for April is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 46.8 in March.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for February is estimated to fall to 5490 versus 5541 in January. 
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly retail sales reports, (FSLR) analyst meeting and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Homebuilding/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +6.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.29 -.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.75 +1.03%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.45 +.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +9.0%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -2.11%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +3.22% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.91 +.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,477.0 +5.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.88 -.27%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.87 -.4%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.58 -.82%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.20 +1.05%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.90 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.5 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.37 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% unch.
  • Yield Curve 103.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $54.80/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.10 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.30 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.40 +3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65% +1.0 basis point
  • 25.5% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 35.7% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating n/a open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • World Leaders Hid Wealth Via Shell Companies, Report Alleges. (video) Leaked files from a Panama law firm that creates shell companies show that politicians, criminals and celebrities worldwide have used banks and shadow companies to hide their finances, according to a series of reports by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. Within hours of publication, the divulgences prompted a parliamentary vote of confidence in Iceland, a curt denial from Argentina and ridicule from a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The consortium said it had obtained a cache of 11.5 million records outlining the creation of more than 200,000 offshore shell companies. The trove includes offshore companies linked to 12 current and former world leaders, as well as hidden financial dealings by 128 more politicians, public officials and entertainment celebrities, according to the ICIJ. While offshore holdings can be legal, they can also be used to hide wealth. Since the financial crisis, Western governments have sought to shed greater light on offshore banking centers, accusing them of being used for activities ranging from tax avoidance to hiding illicit funds to enabling reckless trading. Many Western countries have increasingly linked foreign aid to anti-corruption crackdowns in recipient countries. The ICIJ cited documents that it alleged showed that some banks and law firms failed to follow requirements to check that their clients weren’t involved in crimes. “The Panama Papers investigation unmasks the dark side of the global financial system where banks, lawyers and financial professionals enable secret companies to hide illicit corrupt money,” José Ugaz, the chair of Transparency International, an advocacy group, said in a statement. “This must stop. World leaders must come together and ban the secret companies that fuel grand corruption and allow the corrupt to benefit from ill-gotten wealth.”
  •  Banks Have a Panama Problem. Never mind the Russians, political leaders and celebrities. The leaked papers from a Panama law firm have the potential to create a bigger headache for the global financial industry.
  • Europe Stocks Rebound on Economy Optimism, While Bouygues Slumps. European stocks rose for the first time in three days on confidence that the strength in the U.S. economy will help global growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3 percent at 4:05 p.m. in London, though it pared an advance of as much as 1.1 percent. Orange SA lost 6.4 percent and Bouygues SA plunged 14 percent after a deal between the two collapsed. Peers Altice NV, Iliad SA and Numericable-SFR SAS tumbled more than 12 percent.
  • Saudi Oil Stance a Nail in Rally's Coffin: Tchilinguirian. (video)
  • Oil Speculators Bet Rally's Over as Doubts Grow on Output Freeze. (video) Bearish bets rose by 11,167 contracts, or 17 percent, to 75,598 positions in the report week, the CFTC data show. Short positions were at a nine-month low the prior week. Bullish wagers decreased by 3,647 to 296,614. The resulting net-long position slipped 6.3 percent to 221,016. “We switched to a moderate flow of selling by money managers,” Evans said. “It was dominated by new shorts coming into the market and not by long liquidation. The rise in shorts may reflect that they think the rally is done.”
  • Copper on Worst Run in Two Years as Barclays Sees Deterioration. Copper is heading for the longest losing streak in two years as Barclays Plc forecast weaker prices amid concern that supply will continue to outstrip consumption. Barclays said prices would drop this quarter, averaging $4,520 a ton, or 6.5 percent lower than Friday’s close in London. The metal climbed 3 percent last quarter. The head of Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, warned there are few signs of improving demand, and doesn’t see a recovery starting until 2018. “Over the past week, copper prices have converged with our view that the recent rally was unsustainable as it was built on transient technical factors and poor fundamentals,” Barclays said in a note to investors Monday. “In the second quarter, we see copper continuing to weaken, as the seasonal uptick in Chinese economic activity is not enough to offset strong inventory levels and a worrisome medium-term outlook.” Copper for delivery in three months declined 1 percent to $4,784 a metric ton ($2.17 a pound) at 3:51 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, headed for a seventh straight decline, the longest stretch since February 2014.
  • Loans Shrink Like 'Melting Ice Cube'. America’s riskier credit markets suffered some deep wounds from a rocky start to the year. The depth of the scars may not be obvious just by looking at returns. But under the surface, it’s clear the market has been damaged in terms of its main function -- providing financing to more-speculative companies.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Investigators Home In on Scope of Terror Network Behind Brussels, Paris Attacks. Documents, interviews paint portrait of some of the at least 22 members believed to be still at large. At least 22 radical Islamists from Europe linked to the terror network behind the Brussels and Paris attacks are suspected to be still at large, putting security services on high alert as they rush to prevent Islamic State from striking again in the region.
  • IMF Warns of Rising ‘Systemic Risk’ From Insurers. Warning comes days after judge blocks new insurer oversight in U.S. The week after a judge stymied U.S. government efforts to curb potential systemic risks from giant insurers, the International Monetary Fund issued a new warning about rising global financial market hazards posed by the sector.
  • Trump vs. Scott Walker. Wisconsin is doing well following conservative economic reforms. Scott Walker has endorsed Ted Cruz for the GOP presidential nomination, so perhaps it’s understandable that Donald Trump has been attacking the Wisconsin Governor’s record as he campaigns ahead of Tuesday’s primary there. The problem is that Mr. Walker has the facts on his side.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -2.3% 2) Networking -1.8% 3) Disk Drives -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SWHC, IRMD, BABY, ALK, RGR, CFMS, BSTC, AFSI, TM, LIVN, RSG, SJM, PHM, POWI, ZBIO, FB, USM, CI, CSTE, IEX, BUFF, DW, BIS, GPI, FLO, CPXX and AWI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WWE 2) JBLU 3) PHM 4) DAL 5) UPS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SWHC 2) ATI 3) PBR 4) PHM 5) SJM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.4% 2) Biotech +1.5% 3) Medical Equipment +1.2% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • VA, RKUS, EW, ACAD and HA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) JBLU 2) INO 3) EW 4) NRF 5) GRPN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) EW 2) TMO 3) ESRX 4) TSLA 5) AEE
Charts: