Monday, April 04, 2016

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • China Inc.'s Record Foreign Deal Spree Shows Fear of Weaker Yuan. China Inc. can’t buy foreign companies fast enough, and the yuan’s trajectory helps explain why. The Chinese currency will weaken 3.3 percent versus the dollar by year-end, a Bloomberg survey of strategists found, with the world’s largest foreign-exchange trader Citigroup Inc. forecasting a 7 percent slide through 2017. The projections show the potential cost of delaying instead of dealmaking, and China’s firms are getting the message. The value of their offshore acquisitions reached $97.4 billion this year, already 80 percent of 2015’s record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “A lot of people in China are saying the yuan is going to weaken against the dollar so they take it out and put money into U.S. dollar investments,” Mark Mobius, chairman at the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said in an interview last week, forecasting “mild” depreciation of the currency. “There’s no question that Chinese companies want to become world class, which is why acquisitions make a lot of sense.”
  • Next Greater China Default Looms as Produce Supplier Flags Gap. China Green Holdings Ltd., a supplier of fresh produce that has lost money in the past two financial years, said it doesn’t have enough cash offshore to repay two bonds maturing April 12. The Hong Kong-listed firm has hired a financial adviser to ask noteholders to extend the interest and principal repayment on the two convertible securities beyond the maturity date, it said in an exchange filing dated April 4. It sold the two notes in 2013, each with a face value of 515.28 million yuan ($79.7 million) and an annual coupon of 7 percent and 10 percent. The bonds, which data compiled by Bloomberg show have a combined total 568.8 million yuan outstanding, are repayable in U.S. dollars.
  • IMF Warns of China Shock Spillovers. (video)
  • Basel Warns Against `Myopic' Calls to Ease Bank Capital Demands. Global regulators on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are pushing back against calls for them to ease capital requirements on lenders to stimulate lending. The job of the committee, which brings together regulators from Australia and China to Italy and the U.S., is to define minimum standards rather than to set out the “optimal level” of capital, Secretary General William Coen said in the text of a speech to be delivered Tuesday in Sydney. That approach doesn’t preclude individual jurisdictions from making tougher demands, if that is what they wish to do, he said.
  • Asian Stocks Fall With Oil as China Markets Reopen; Yen Climbs. Asian stocks slumped to a four-week low and emerging-market currencies weakened as investors reassessed last month’s rally in riskier assets. Oil declined for a third day, while the yen and Treasuries gained.Energy producers led losses in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, while the yen’s three-day surge weighed on Japanese exporters. Chinese equities slipped after a local holiday on Monday as Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures signaled a second day of losses in U.S. shares. South Korea’s won dropped 0.9 percent, while Australia’s dollar fell before a central bank policy meeting. U.S. crude slid a third day before U.S. government data forecast to show increasing stockpiles. Thirty-year Treasury yields declined to their lowest level since Feb. 25. The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge lost 1.3 percent at 10:01 a.m. in Hong Kong, set for its lowest close since March 2. Japan’s Topix slumped 2 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.7 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.3 percent.
  • Tesla(TSLA) Deliveries Miss Forecast as `Hubris' Hurts SUV Supply. Tesla Motors Inc. shipped fewer electric cars than it forecast in the first quarter, hurt by a new line of sport utility vehicles that was both short on parts and long on technology “hubris.” The automaker said it sold 14,820 Model S cars and Model X SUVs in the first quarter, short of the 16,000 it had predicted in February. Shares fell in late trading, giving back some of the gains Tesla had made since Thursday by exceeding all expectations on orders for a new, lower-cost car that will be available next year.
 Wall Street Journal:
  • Kicking the Oil Business When It’s Down. Rising regulatory scrutiny of banks that lend to energy companies is tightening the screws on fossil fuels. Crude oil prices have dropped precipitously over the past 18 months, and while there has been a recent uptick, the energy industry is struggling. Despite laying off workers, cutting capital budgets and refinancing debt, 45 U.S. oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015, with more expected to follow.
Fox News: 
  • Cruz reaches out to women voters, answers abortion questions on Fox exclusive. (video) Sen. Ted Cruz on Monday reached out to female voters, claiming Donald Trump seems to have "a problem with strong women" as the two prepared for Tuesday's Wisconsin primary. The Texas senator appeared to try to capitalize on Trump’s recent campaign missteps that seem to be alienating women voters, a crucial voting bloc to win a general election. “He seems to have a problem with strong women,” Cruz said on a special Town Hall edition of Fox News Channel’s “Kelly File.” “It’s going to be up to the men and women in Wisconsin” to decide who wins. “I could not be more encouraged by the enthusiasm.”
CNBC: 
  • A third of Indian firms' borrowing is currently stressed, India Ratings says. India has a big debt problem. A third of the country's 500 largest listed non-financial companies failed to earn enough to make interest payments in the financial year that ended March 2015, according to a new report from local ratings agency India Ratings and Research. The report, published last week, said in fiscal 2015, 178 out of the largest listed 500 corporate borrowers had an interest coverage ratio below 1. India calculates its fiscal year from April to March; fiscal 2015 ended Mar. 31, 2015, while FY17 began Apr. 1, 2016. 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 145.25 +1.0 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.25 +.75 basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.16 -.17%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.44%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (DRI)/1.20
  • (GBX)/1.56
  • (ISCA)/.40
  • (WBA)/1.28
  • (TISI)/.11 
Economic Releases  
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -$46.2B versus -$45.7B in January.       
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Services PMI for March is estimated to rise to 51.2 versus 51.0 in February.    
10:00 am EST:
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated to rise to 54.2 versus 53.4 in February.
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for April is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 46.8 in March.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for February is estimated to fall to 5490 versus 5541 in January. 
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly retail sales reports, (FSLR) analyst meeting and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

No comments: