Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, economic optimism and tax reform hopes offset profit-taking, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Administration Makes Its First Move to Build Border Wall. President Donald Trump’s administration is soliciting ideas from contractors on how to build its promised wall between the U.S. and Mexico, a first tangible step toward delivering on the president’s signature campaign promise to curb unauthorized immigration. U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a preliminary request for proposals Friday, saying it plans to release a formal solicitation around March 6 “for the design and build of several prototype wall structures in the vicinity of the United States border with Mexico.”

• Retailers Push Alternatives in a Bid to Kill Border-Adjusted Tax. U.S. retailers are working with lawmakers in the House and Senate to craft alternatives to a proposed tax on imported goods that they say will raise prices for consumers. “We’re in the process of working with the Hill to give a couple of different alternatives to what we think would be a regressive tax,” J.C. Penney Co. Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison said Friday in an interview.

• Americans Haven't Been This Optimistic About the Job Market in Over 30 Years. (graph)

• Loeb Embraces Trump ‘Paradigm Shift,’ Says Stocks Not Overvalued.

• Tech Companies Join Challenge on Transgender Bathroom Rules.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Islamic State Drones Terrorize Iraqi Forces as Mosul Battle Rages. Militant group uses increasingly sophisticated drone technology to target troops, civilians. 

• Suspect in Kim Jong Nam Killing Says Oil ‘Prank’ Earned Her $90. Siti Aisyah sticks to claim that she was playing a prank as part of a reality show.

• Transgender Wrestler Wins Girls State Title as Texas Rule Draws Criticism. Rule that transgender wrestler Mack Beggs must compete against girls frustrates some parents, other wrestlers.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (RIG), (GPN), (AXTA) and (TV).

• Had bearish commentary on (HOG).

Fox News:

• Former Labor Sec. Perez elected as Democratic National Committee chairman. (video)

CNBC:

• UPS(UPS) tests drone deliveries via high-tech truck. (video)

• China's offensive against fleeing capital leaves Hollywood in limbo: Wall Street Journal.

• This is the new self-driving company taking on Uber’s Otto. (video)

• In sweeping move, Trump puts regulation monitors in U.S. agencies.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Says He Will Skip White House Correspondents' Dinner.

• Darrell Issa Demands Special Prosecutor Probe Trump-Russia Connections.

• Which Country Punishes Productive People The Most?

• Starbucks'(SBUX) 'Brand Perception' Takes A Massive Hit After Announcing Plans To Hire 10,000 Refugees.

• Watergate's Bob Woodward: "Press Shouldn't Whine About Trump, It Doesn't Work With The Public". (video)

• Charts Of The Week: 10 Reasons To Be Cautious In This Market. (graph)

• Establishment Favorite Tom Perez Wins Vote To Lead Democratic Party.

• Most Illegal Immigrants Live In America's Metropolitan Areas. 

• Trump Administration Unveils First Step In Building Border Wall.

• White House Denies Axios' Report Which Denied Reuters Report About Trump's Border Tax.

• Weekend Reading: Errant Thinking.

• Data Fraud At Chinese Province Suggests Local GDP Numbers As Much As 20% "Overcooked".

• Late-Day Panic-Buying Sends Dow To Longest Record Streak In 30 Years. (graph)

Business Insider:

• $3.7 BILLION HEDGE FUND: There's a lot to be excited about under Trump, but nobody's talking about it.

• An unlikely French election outcome could plunge Europe into crisis.

• The Model 3 could be the worst thing that ever happened to Tesla(TSLA).

• Snap's IPO is oversubscribed by $7 billion.

• The Trump administration's vow to crack down on marijuana has 'unnerved' investors and caused stocks to tumble.

• Al Gore just sold $29 million of Apple(AAPL) stock.

CBS News:

• Car runs into New Orleans crowd, police say. Police say 12 people were injured when a vehicle plowed into a crowd watching the Krewe of Endymion parade in the Mid-City section of New Orleans.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,358.82 +.51%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,358.82 +.51%

• DJIA 20,751.50 +.69%

• NASDAQ 5,827.64 +.22%

• Russell 2000 1,392.64 -.52%

• S&P 500 High Beta 37.67 -1.42%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 120.41 -1.10%

• Wilshire 5000 24,497.20 +.39%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,130.88 +.61%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,142.09 +.30%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 566.03 +1.92%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3077 +.59%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,352.95 +.94%

• Transports 9,385.33 -.96%

• Utilities 697.82 +4.07%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.79 -3.22%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.55 -.03%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.13 +.11%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.08 +.43%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 283,689 +.35%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 764 -79

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.11 +104.52%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 508,456 +6.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,183,943 -.33%

• Total Put/Call .78 -18.95%

• OEX Put/Call 3.81 +888.24%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 +5.75%

• NYSE Arms 1.58 +21.7%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.55 -.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.37 +2.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.41 +.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.58 -2.04%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,836.74 +.70%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.680 Trillion +.19%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.101 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 38.5 +16.2%

• AAII % Bears 32.3 -.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 191.08 -.96%

• Crude Oil 53.99 +.99%

• Reformulated Gasoline 151.33 -.56%

• Natural Gas 2.67 -7.84%

• Heating Oil 164.03 +.73%

• Gold 1,257.90 +1.44%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.76 -.71%

• Copper 267.20 -1.42%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 250.0 USD/Ton -3.85%

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.50 USD/Ton +.14%

• Lumber 368.70 +1.60%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,171.83 -2.21%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.4% unch.
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +10.5% -60.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0798 +5.23%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 132.86 +.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.90 -8.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.20 +28.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.30 +4.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 60.0% chance of no change 40.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/15

• US Dollar Index 101.08 +.18%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,568.15 +.68%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.64 -1.08%

• Yield Curve 118.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.32% -10.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.430 Trillion +.31%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.59 -9.69%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 390.0 -3.50%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.67 +3.0%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.18 -7.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.18 -1.88%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.97 -4.13%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 601.39 unch.

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 169.57 -6.79%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 134.91 +.23%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02% unch.
  

• TED Spread 55.0 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.75 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.79 -2.07%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 356.0 -5.8%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.59 +2.45%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 220.28 -3.21%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 140.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.364 Trillion +.87%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 967.20 +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 241,000 -4,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.16% +1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 371.50 -1.98%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.0 -.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.9% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.29/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 856.0 +15.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 815.46 -3.54%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 -18.75%

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,503 +1.04%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.7%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +8.6%

• Utilities +4.0%

• Alt Energy +2.4%

• Medical Equipment +2.2%

• Homebuilders +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Papers -2.3% 

• Airlines -2.6%

• Construction -2.7%

• Steel -4.1%

• Gold & Silver -4.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• TELL, VSAR, LNTH, TROX, SQ, COHU, PLKI, ANET, LMOS, DGI, UCTT, LL, HAWK, VMI, RAVN, TTD, FSLR, WIRE, CGNX, NRCIA, HSNI, EXAS, ROG, KHC, TRUE, AMN, CCN and GBT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)

• SSNI, LMAT, CPB, TREX, CAR, DENN, CVG, TRIP, MATX, OUT, NLS, AAN, PZZA, DIN, WAB, JACK, ARRS, EME, PI, TXRH, NUS, GTLS, LB, CIR, AMPH, ORC and AMRI

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change