Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 39.4% of Issues Advancing, 56.6% Declining
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 60.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.6%
• Vix 11.4 -3.6%
• Total Put/Call .78 -23.5%
• TRIN/Arms .72 -6.1%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 -.25 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 26.25 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.82 -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.14%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BIG)/2.22

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for February is estimated at 56.5 versus 56.5 in January. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Fischer speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone Retail Sales report and the Eurozone Services PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Profit-Taking, Oil Decline, Metals&Mining/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.78 -6.06%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.65 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.69 -.41%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.55 -.91%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +23.46%
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +9.3%

• NYSE Arms .71 +17.59%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.31 -1.03%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 348.0 -.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.48 -2.17%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.30 -1.76%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.23 -.32%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.56 +2.06%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.33 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 38.0 -5.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +1.5 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.85 -.74%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .66% +4.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 117.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $92.36/Metric Tonne +1.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.40 +2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.60 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.60 -3.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 unch.
• 91.3% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 96.3% chance at June 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my in my retail/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -4.3% 2) Gold & Silver -3.9% 3) Gaming -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AHP, PTCT, PBYI, OME, KITE, TASR, GEF, BOX, ATHM, JUNO, PSTG, CAT, HIIQ, VGR, CCRN and ENV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) KR 3) CSAL 4) PTCT 5) SLV

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OME 2) ETFC 3) NVDA 4) CAT 5) NEM

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +1.0% 2) Biotech +.9% 3) Utilities +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SFR, DERM, KPTI, NKTR, GCP, ANF, MNST, DGLD, BLDR, GKOS, CWST, CALA, ACIW, DSLV, BMCH, ITCI, NLNK, NOAH, FOXF, BURL, NVGS, SRPT, TDOC, AKRX, XLRN, AIRM, IONS, AJRD, XON, FGEN, BBY, CARA, BW, AMBC, OSUR, PODD, CHRS, AEO, ATRC, LJPC and FOE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KMB 2) ANF 3) AVGO 4) SHAK 5) LITE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XLRN 2) SRPT 3) MNST 4) CGI 5) AKRX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 28.6% of Issues Advancing, 68.6% Declining
• 99 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 62.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.6%
• Vix 11.9 -5.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +19.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 +74.7%