Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -.6% 2) Computer Hardware -.5% 3) Gaming -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RGLD and NETE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WATT 2) MON 3) AEO 4) EFA 5) UNG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RIOT 2) EKSO 3) RGLD 4) RVLT 5) MO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +2.5% 2) Alt Energy +.7% 3) Shipping +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WATT, OTEX, TCCO, CGBD, DQ, WLKP, BOOM, APPN, CVGW, AMBC, CMCM, TCP, SPKE, SFBS, MTN, NEOG, FFIN, NFLX, HCM, NWN, ARD, SUPN, INTL, SMG and MGEE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WATT 2) RCL 3) ALK 4) MON 5) UPL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WATT 2) FCX 3) MANH 4) SBUX 5) CXO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -36.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 52.0% of Issues Advancing, 43.0% Declining
• 80 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 61.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.8%
• Vix 10.3 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .88 -7.4%
• TRIN/Arms .90 -37.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch.  to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -1.25 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.87 .

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for November is estimated at -$67.9B versus -$68.1B in October.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for November is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in October.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 240K versus 245K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1900K versus 1932K prior.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for December is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 63.9 in November.
  

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,844,200 barrels versus a -6,495,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,290,300 barrels versus a +1,237,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +85,600 barrels versus a +769,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.15% versus a +.7% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (NEOG) 4-for-3

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Account Balance, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the $26B 5Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Seasonality, Road & Rail/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.17 -.78%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.49 +.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.83 -.89%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.59 +2.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +73.8%
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +124.71%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.88 -.43%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 374.0 +.68%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 43.70 -.65%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.96 n/a

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.24 -1.56%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 120.16 -.52%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.71 -.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.25 -2.25 basis points

• TED Spread 22.5 +13.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.25 +15.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.96 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.44% +10.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 52.25 -4.5 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 486.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes -.51%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.90 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.20 +.2 basis point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.30 -.3 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 unch.
  
• 70.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 72.6% chance at May 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -.6% 2) Airlines -.5% 3) Gold & Silver -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ELY, NETE, CORT and RIOT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NEM 2) RTN 3) JNJ 4) NW 5) RIOT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ELY 2) AAL 3) PG 4) JPM 5) GLW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume