Monday, January 29, 2018

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Crypto Investors Risk ‘Total Loss,’ Deutsche Warns. (video) Deutsche Bank AG’s Wealth Management currently does not advise to invest in crypto-currencies, according to Markus Mueller, Global Head of Chief Investment Office. Problematic issues include high volatility, possible price manipulation and data loss or data theft, he told Bloomberg News in an interview. "We do not recommend that. It’s only for investors who invest speculatively," he said. "There is a realistic risk of total loss." According to Mueller, recent price increases reflect a lot of imagination, driven by the current situation in the market. There is hardly any return scope left in other asset classes such as fixed income, he said.
  • Nomura Adds Bankers From BofA, UBS, Jefferies in U.S. Expansion. Nomura Holdings Inc. hired 15 investment bankers in the U.S. from firms including Credit Suisse Group AG, Bank of America Corp. and Jefferies Group LLC as the Japanese lender builds out its North American business. The additions, which took place over the past year, were for the bank’s leveraged finance, equity capital markets, consumer, health-care, financial institutions, industrials and technology and M&A groups, Nomura said Monday in a statement.
  • Top Norway Fund Manager Is Betting on Rigs for 200% Return. After more than 3 years of taking a hammering, drillers are set to rise. “They will rise 100 to 200 percent -- a real surge,” Martin Molsaeter, portfolio manager and partner at First Fondene, said in an interview in Oslo on Wednesday. Oil service companies suffered as crude prices fell in 2014, with explorers and producers slashing spending to weather the downturn. But as oil companies start to increase investments with crude back over $70 dollar a barrel, revenue is likely to rise for rig companies and other suppliers.
  • Exxon(XOM) Cites $50 Billion Spending Bonanza But Details Are Scarce. Exxon Mobil Corp. is planning a $50 billion building spree over the next half decade. But the details so far are scant. U.S. Representative Kevin Brady, the Texas Republican whose district is home to Exxon’s largest corporate campus, tweeted on Monday that the oil explorer is set to announce a $50 billion, five-year domestic investment program. Exxon CEO Darren Woods confirmed the spending plan in blog post, citing the U.S. income tax overhaul as a significant contributor to the program.
  • Goldman Gauge of Market Health Flashing Green for Economy Growth. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s index of financial conditions broke through its internet bubble trough to reach a record low Monday, signaling that the economy may be poised to pick up steam. The index tracks changes in interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, and the value of the greenback, with a lower reading suggesting expansion lies ahead.
Wall Street Journal:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.2% 2) Homebuilders -1.7% 3) REITs -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • WYNN, SOHU, DVMT, VMW, ADNT, ALDR, OLED, RDFN, MYGN and TMST
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XHB 2) PHM 3) WYNN 4) HCA 5) MNST
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) WYNN 2) SOHU 3) CRR 4) PM 5) ARDM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +1.4% 2) Biotech +.7% 3) Road & Rail +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • IMMR, KS, DPS, ABLX, PTGX, MATX, PTCT, CISN, LMT, FOLD, LVS, IOVA, KEM, GILD, ENVA, VRTV, SNDX, INAP, EDIT, NFLX, FBR, RCKT, ABAX, MDXG, AKCA and WGO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PXD 2) HOG 3) OIH 4) AMTD 5) LEN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PTCT 2) AMD 3) NOC 4) MCD 5) STX
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China Ousted as Asia's No. 1 Buyer of U.S. Commercial Property. Singapore ousted China to become the biggest Asian investor in U.S. commercial property last year. It was the first time since 2012 that the city outspent China, according to data from Real Capital Analytics and Cushman & Wakefield Inc. Deals by Chinese investors plunged 66 percent to $5.9 billion as regulators cracked down on capital outflows.
  • Massive Cryptocurrency Heist Puts Spotlight on Exchange Security. The episode, disclosed by Coincheck executives at a hastily arranged press conference on Friday night, comes at an awkward time for Japanese regulators, who began rolling out a new licensing system for cryptocurrency venues just a few months ago. It has heightened calls for stricter oversight and may influence a closely watched debate in neighboring South Korea over whether to ban digital-asset exchanges outright.
  • Asian Equity Rally Ekes Out More Gains; Bonds Flat. Asian equities nudged higher at the start of Monday trading, building on this year’s strong start that’s pushed the regional benchmark index to a record high as investors bet an expansion in corporate earnings won’t falter any time soon. Gains in stocks in South Korea and Australia on Monday helped extend the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s rise this year to 7.8 percent, on course for its best month since March 2016. Japanese equities edged higher. The S&P 500 Index surged on Friday to a fresh all-time high. The yen steadied after the Bank of Japan clarified comments from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in Davos on Friday did not mean a change to its forecast. The dollar dipped. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.1 percent as of 9:08 a.m. in Tokyo. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.3 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.3 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were up 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge climbed 1.2 percent Friday.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
  • Bitcoin and blockchain’s broken promises. Cryptocurrencies in general are based on a false premise. According to its promoters, bitcoin has a steady-state supply of 21 million units, so it cannot be debased like fiat currencies. But that claim is clearly fraudulent, considering that it has already forked off into three branches: bitcoin cash, litecoin, and bitcoin gold. Besides, hundreds of other cryptocurrencies are invented every day, alongside scams known as “initial coin offerings,” which are mostly designed to skirt securities laws. So “stable” cryptos are creating money supply and debasing it at a much faster pace than any major central bank ever has.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.75 -.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 +.25 basis  point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 76.51 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AMG)/4.52
  • (D)/.89
  • (LMT)/4.03
  • (STX)/1.35
  • (SOHU)/-1.72
  • (CR)/1.17
  • (GGG)/.36
  • (IEX)/1.07
  • (IDTI)/.41
  • (SANM)/.48
  • (WERN)/.39
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for December is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in November. 
  • Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in November.
  • PCE Core MoM for December is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in November.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for January is estimated to fall to 25.3 versus 29.7 in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Import Price report and the Japan Unemployment rate report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as positive earnings outlooks, oil gains and economic optimism offset profit-taking, technical selling and rising long-term rates. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.