Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.3% 2) Homebuilding -.9% 3) Gaming -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TRTN, CNX and AU

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AIG 2) AET 3) ON 4) ZNGA 5) APA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRTN 2) ALKS 3) MAXR 4) AGN 5) MGNX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +1.9% 2) Oil Service +1.5% 3) Internet +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EOLS, ULTI, PZZA, HMI, APHA, CRON, ARVN, SONO, KALV, CLX, ELLI, FLWS, IGV, LEXEA, VCYT, SYY, ROKU, CTRL, COUP, BEAT, BE, MBUU, DMRC, DGII, CATS, EOLS, SYY, SAIA, BC and AVLR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARRY 2) AIG 3) MAT 4) EBAY 5) NOW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PZZA 2) CLX 3) INTU 4) CRK 5) AMG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 52.7% of Issues Advancing, 44.3% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 37.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.6%
• Vix 16.0 -1.18%
• Total Put/Call .79 -29.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.45 +27.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Says He’s Inclined to Keep Base in Iraq to ‘Watch’ Iran.

• Venezuela's Guaido Seeks Talks With China, Morning Post Reports.

• Asian Stocks Look Set for Gains; Dollar Steady. Asian stocks looked set for modest gains Monday following strong U.S. economic data Friday and positive comments out of Washington on the trade talks. Trading may be subdued as much of the region heads into Lunar New Year holidays. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump told CBS trade talks with Beijing are “doing very well” and sounded confident an agreement with North Korea was on the horizon. Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia ticked higher. On Friday, U.S. stocks eked out a small gain as better-than-expected jobs and manufacturing reports overshadowed a disappointing sales forecast from Amazon. U.S. Treasury yields climbed, while the dollar edged up. Oil rose past $55 a barrel in New York, reaching the highest since November. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.2 percent in Osaka.S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.3 percent.

• JPMorgan Says 2020 'Might Not Be Year to Think About Recession'.

• Powell Marks One Year on the Job as Fed Turns Dovish.

• U.S. Raising Active Duty Forces at Mexico Border to About 4,350.

• Wall Street Makes New Bid for Easier Shorting of Chinese Stocks.  

• Democrats Keep Up Pressure as Virginia Governor Northam Digs In.

Wall Street Journal:

• No Dialogue for Maduro.

• Elizabeth Warren Doesn’t Understand Wealth Taxes.

• Small Businesses Are Waving the Caution Flag.

• How China Pressured MSCI to Add Its Market to Major Benchmark.

• State of the Union Guests Will Reflect Immigration Split.

• Sanctions on Venezuela’s Crude Hit Oil Market in Vulnerable Spot.

Fox News:

• Trump slams Pelosi, details troops' role in Iraq, speaks to anthem controversy in Super Bowl chat.

CNBC:

• How January became the month where everything on Wall Street roared back after a rough 2018.

• Here’s why ‘Shark Tank’s’ Kevin O’Leary is betting on small caps to keep beating the S&P 500.

• Morgan Stanley: Here’s how Apple could send its stock soaring by 27% this year.

Zero Hedge:

• "Unforgivable" - Trump Slams Racist, Late-Term-Abortion-Supporting Democrat VA Governor.

• Bodycam Captures Militant Antifa Shot In The Head By Cops After Pulling Gun.

• Mocking Mueller's Collusion-Free Collusion Indictment Of Roger Stone.

• NBC News Exposed 'Reporting' Pure Propaganda On Gabbard's Russia Links From Disinfo-Democrat.

• Venezuela's Self-Declared President Reaches Out To China As Trump Repeats Military Force Is "An Option".

• In Super Bowl Interview, Trump Warns: Pelosi Is "Very Bad For Our Country".

• It's Not Brexit But 'Deutsche-it' You Want To Worry About.

• Brexit 'Chicken': 1-2 Years Of Pain Now Versus Permanent Idiocy.

• As US Freezes, This Is Where Europeans Can't Afford To Heat Their Homes.

• Unrest In France: No End In Sight.

• If You Are Warm Right Now, Thank Capitalism.

Business Insider:

• 11 brands that shoppers are obsessed with, from body wash to paper towels. 

• Drones are no longer a cool novelty only a handful of companies are testing — they're infiltrating a slew of industries and applications.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 54.5 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.82 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.51

• (ALXN)/1.84

• (BZH)/.14

• (CLX)/1.31

• (MDP)/1.29

• (SYY)/.73

After the Close:

• (GOOG)/9.70

• (AVB)/2.31

• (FN)/.92

• (GILD)/1.71

• (LM)/.71

• (OLN)/.36

• (STX)/1.27

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Nov. are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -2.1% decline in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Week Ahead by TheStreet.

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as earnings optimism, dovish FOMC commentary and China trade deal hopes offset European debt angst, technical selling and global growth worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Buys 2 Million Tons of Soybeans After DC Talks.

• Angry Venezuelans March on Capital to Demand Fresh Elections.  

• Brazil Senate Chooses Pro-Reform Backbencher as Its Speaker.

• An Upheaval Is Coming for Australian Banks.

• Euroskeptic Savona May Head Italy's Market Watchdog: Reports.

• Norway's $1 Trillion Man Talks Brexit, China and Big Tech.  

• Venezuela Oil Output to Drop by 18% on U.S. Sanctions: Woodmac.

• Starboard Value Is Said to Take Stake in Bristol-Myers Squibb.  

• An Investor's Guide to Trump's State of the Union.

Wall Street Journal:

• Apple’s(AAPL) Cold War Over Privacy Turns Hot.

• Sorry for the Good News.

• Howard Schultz Is Right About Medicare for All.

• Why the Fed Made a U-Turn: Perceived Risks Shifted.

• Russia to Follow U.S. in Suspending Role in Nuclear Treaty.

• Women Claim New Turf on Wall Street.

• Junk Debt Is Back After December Slowdown.

• 1MDB Scandal Could Hit Pay for Some Top Goldman Executives.

• Big Oil Companies Finished 2018 Strong Despite Plunge in Oil Prices.

• Record Job Run Powers On.

• Trump Signals Decision on Border Emergency Could Come Soon.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (REGN), (GLW), (BPY), (APTV), (MRK), (MSFT), (AMD), (MMM), (SAVE), (BLL), (SYK).

• Had bearish commentary on (NVO) and (ABBV).

MarketWatch.com:

• Disney(DIS) and Alphabet(GOOG) highlight another big week of earnings.

• 5 stocks to outsmart a dimming outlook for profits.

Fox News:

• KRISTAN HAWKINS: Why I wear a MAGA hat, and I wasn’t even a Trump fan. 

• President hits Florida course with golf greats, escapes chilly DC.

CNBC:

• Here’s the real reason the stock market had such a strong start to the year: Jim Cramer.

• January was the best month for US defense stocks in a decade.

• Facebook’s earnings had a surprise finding: Users don’t appear to care about privacy scandals.

• With more drones in the sky every year, ‘counter-drone’ tech can keep the bad ones at bay.

• Cramer’s lightning round: Bank of America’s(BAC) stock is a screaming buy.

Zero Hedge:

• Northam Will Not Resign, Claims He Wasn't In Racist Picture: AP.

• Northam Tweets Video Apology For "Racist And Offensive" Photo Amid Growing Calls To Resign.

• These Billionaires Are Issuing Terrifying Warnings About Global Debt Levels.

• French Yellow Vests March To Denounce Police Violence; Promptly Get Beaten By Riot Cops.

• Massive, Dueling Rallies Engulf Venezuela As Maduro Attempts Election Concessions.

• Yes, America Hates 'Patriot Nation' - And New England Is Loving It!

• Top Venezuela General Defects, Calls Guaido Head-of-State And Urges Military To Follow.

• Socialism Is The Fyre Festival Of Ideologies, And Millennials Are Falling For It Too.

• Snopes & AP Suddenly Quit As Facebook Fact-Checkers.

• Iran Taunts Trump With Test-Launch Of New Long-Range Cruise Missile.

• Time Is Running Out To Oust Maduro.

• How The Euro Enabled Europe's Debt Bubbles.

• Robots Call Americans An Average Eight Times A Month.

• Melbourne Housing Prices Plummet At Fastest Quarterly Pace Ever Recorded; Sydney Enters "New Territory".

• Advanced Social Decay: What's Going On Behind Closed Doors In America.

• Elizabeth Warren Apologizes To Cherokee Nation For DNA Test.

• One Of The Biggest At-Home DNA Testing Companies Is Secretly Sharing Data With The FBI.

• Virginia Governor "Deeply Sorry" For Yearbook Photo In Blackface/KKK Robes.

• Big Trouble In Shrinking China.

• Maxine Waters: "Deutsche Bank Is Perhaps The Biggest Money Laundering Bank In The World".

• Pennsylvania Identifies Over 11,000 Registered Non-Citizen Voters.

• Powell-Pivot Sends Gold To 8-Month Highs, Dow Up Sixth Straight Week.

Business Insider:

• The US housing market has been battered amid soaring home costs — here are the most affordable cities for millennials to buy a home right now.

• A toxic-chemicals expert is sounding the alarm about 4 cancer-linked chemicals that could be making us sicker and fatter.

The Telegraph:

• Comment: Don't blame China - this global economic slowdown is made in Europe.