Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.7% 2) Defense -.7% 3) Medical Equipment -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SMLP, MEDP, CTMX, VCEL, RLGY, CDEV, NCI, KHC, MDB, QURE and ATRA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LB 2) AET 3) CPB 4) SHAK 5) BGS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CDEV 2) NLS 3) MDB 4) CTL 5) CAT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Papers +1.2% 2) Gaming +1.1% 3) Retail +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NIO, MNK, DDS, NITE, FBM, THC, HSII, ENTG, SHAK, JBT, TWOU, FTCH, HMI, AERI, SERV, VSM, NOA, SSTK, LN, BANC, MGTA, VCYT, WP, PODD, ETSY, FCN, PRFT, WP, AZO, DVAX, SJM and MXL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) MYL 3) ETSY 4) SHAK 5) M

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EVER 2) ETSY 3) DDS 4) KBR 5) AZO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 47.5% of Issues Advancing, 49.7% Declining
• 47 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 50.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.3%
• Vix 14.7 -.9%
• Total Put/Call .74 -5.1%
• TRIN/Arms .74 -26.0%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 49.75 -1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.36 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.65%.

• S&P 500 futures -.40%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMWD)/1.33
• (AZO)/.10
• (CLVS)/-1.72
• (CBRL)/2.54
• (DISCA)/.81
• (HD)/2.16
• (SJM)/2.02
• (LL)/.16
• (M)/2.53
• (SAFM)/-1.48
• (TPH)/.65

After the Close:

• (EOG)/1.37
• (JAZZ)/3.03
• (MELI)/-.11
• (MYL)/1.36
• (NBR)/-.18
• (PANW)/1.22
• (PZZA)/.15
• (PSA)/2.78
• (RRGB)/.37
• (TOL)/.61

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Dec. is estimated to fall to 1255K versus 1256K in Nov.
• Building Permits for Dec. is estimated to fall to 1290K versus 1328K in Nov.

9:00 am EST

• The House Price Purchase Index for 4Q.
• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
• The S&P Corelogic CS 20-City MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is  estimated to rise to 5.0 versus -2.0 in Jan.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 124.9 versus 120.2 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testimony to Senate, German Consumer Confidence report, $32B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, US drugmakers testimony to Congress, Simmons Energy Conference, (TROW) investor day and the (JPM) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Technical Buying, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.15 +4.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.20 +.66%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.65 +.35%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.41 -.26%

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -36.4%
  

• Total Put/Call .72 -6.49%

• NYSE Arms .81 -41.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.88 -2.67%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 539.0 -.04%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.0 -5.69%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 266.5 -8.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.35 -1.69%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.86 -2.88%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.27 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 20.75 -2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -1.25 basis points.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.38 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.

• Yield Curve 16.0 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.40 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.0 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.30 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +1.0 basis point
• 1.6% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.6% chance at June 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -.8% 2) Utilities -.6% 3) Foods -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PSO, EHTH and CONE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) AET 3) LNG 4) EPI 5) NTNX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WIN 2) AAWW 3) IMAX 4) KHC 5) VICL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume