Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -3.3% 2) Social Media -2.5% 3) Oil Service -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VRS, ANTM, BDN, POL, AA, RCL, PTLA, SKY, ACMR, NTLA, PAA, IP, CCL, MTSI, ILMN, BHVN, WRK EPD, TMO, ALXN, IEX, MTOR, FTI, NGVT, WCC, SPR, ADS, NCLH, URI, DAR, SSP, UPS, SHW, CVM, PGNY, PKG, GWW, HZO, MO, DD, WES, FB, MUSA, APO, MUR, TFC, TXG, MNRO, STAA, CREE, KEX, DNLI, AZPN and EGOV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MUR 2) FEZ 3) NOW 4) HCA 5) URI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) I 2) BGG 3) MO 4) CCL 5) RFP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +1.1% 2) Foods +1.0% 3) Gaming +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TSLA, NOW, PENN, MDLZ, RUTH, CRUS, AMBA, SEIC, MTH, LRCX, YETI and PH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PENN 2) MDLZ 3) SPR 4) HLF 5) RIOT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOW 2) LRCX 3) LLY 4) HSY 5) KO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 34.8% of Issues Advancing, 61.1% Declining
• 80 New 52-Week Highs, 76 New Lows
• 62.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0%
• Vix 17.2 +5.1%
• Total Put/Call .84 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +7.6%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.74 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.75  -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.60 -.04%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.40%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19.%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ALXN)/2.46
• (MO)/1.02
• (ABC)/1.67
• (APTV)/1.02
• (BIIB)/7.90
• (BX)/.66
• (BGG)/-.13
• (BC)/.75
• (KO)/.44
• (DHR)/1.25
• (DD)/.95
• (LLY)/1.52
• (HSY)/1.24
• (IP)/1.03
• (MDC)/1.27
• (NOC)/4.72
• (PH)/2.27
• (DGX)/1.60
• (RTN)/3.11
• (SHW)/4.38
• (TSCO)/1.23
• (TFC)/1.00
• (UPS)/2.11
• (VLO)/1.61
• (VZ)/1.15

After the Close:

• (AMZN)/3.99
• (AMGN)/3.41
• (BZH)/.08
• (DECK)/6.57
• (EA)/2.36
• (RHI)/.97
• (SKYW)/1.41
• (X)/-1.15
• (V)/1.47
• (WDC)/.58
• (WYNN)/1.01

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Advance 4Q GDP is estimated at +2.1% versus a prior estimate of a +2.1% gain. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 211K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1730K versus 1731K prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoE rate decision, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the Eurozone CPI report  could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, FOMC Commentary, Short-Covering, Road&Rail/Industrial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -4.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.63 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.40 1.69%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.5 -4.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -43
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -1.27%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +50.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.82 -.99%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 623.0 -1.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.86 -1.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -4.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.03 +.39%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 190.38 -.95%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.86 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 unch.

• TED Spread 21.25 -3.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.65 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .20 +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.65%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.60 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.8 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 -1.0 basis point
• 19.0% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 40.3% chance of cut at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -44 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -681 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.8% 2) Homebuilding -1.8% 3) Telecom -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SWK, FCF, BPMP, PHM, ADP, KEYS, RGA, PLMR, NYCB, ANTM, ACMR, CAL, HES, CYRX, WSBC, CHRW, AMD, BHVN, XLNX, SKY and SLAB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CC 2) EWH 3) SBUX 4) XLNX 5) NTAP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) XLNX 2) I 3) SPI 4) HAFC 5) CAL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume