Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• ECB Seen Extending and Boosting Stimulus to Battle Longer Crisis.
• Osaka Alert at Highest; South Korea Cases Rise: Virus Update.
• Stocks Steady After Recent Surge; Dollar Holds Dip: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Trades Near Eight-Month High After OPEC+ Compromise Deal.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• The Bloomberg 50: The People Who Changed Global Business in 2020.  
• How Bipartisan Stimulus, McConnell Plans Stack Up: Side by Side.  
• U.S. Junk Bond Yields Hit Record Low for Second Time This Year.  
• Wall Street Keeps Pushing Into China as Washington Balks.

Wall Street Journal:

• McConnell’s Spending Line.
• OPEC, Allies Agree to Increase Output by 500,000 Barrels a Day.
• Pfizer Slashed Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles.
• U.S. Boosts China Spying Budget to Meet Growing National-Security Threat.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE: Michael Flynn speaks out on 'political persecution' to Lou Dobbs.
  

CNBC.com:

• Wall Street may be underpricing a near-term risk associated with Fed policy.
• WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar doesn’t think he just destroyed the movie theater industry.
• Pentagon blacklists China chipmaker SMIC and oil producer CNOOC.
• Southwest warns 6,800 employees on potential furloughs in ‘sad milestone’.
• Covid pandemic is accelerating the shift to digital payments, but cash remains king.

Zero Hedge:

• "This Needs Answers": CCTV Video Of Georgia Poll Workers Sparks Election Fraud Outrage.
• China Blasts Annual Congressional Report As Filled With "Conspiracies, Pitfalls, Threats".
• Not All Hedge Funds Had A Dismal Year: Coatue Is Up 53%, Balyasny Gains 30% As Some Veterans Flourish.
• "Trump's China Measures Will Box Biden In": Visa Restrictions For 92 Million CCP Members.
• The Mainstream Press Has Failed America.
• Philadelphia Priest Dies After Participating In Moderna COVID Vaccine Trial.
• Biden Says Fauci To Stay On, Will "Ask" Americans To Wear Masks For First 100 Days Of Admin.
• Stocks Plunge After Pfizer Cuts Vaccine Rollout Target By Half Due To "Supply Chain Obstacles".
• DOJ Sues Facebook For Discriminating Against US Workers, Reserving Jobs For H1-B Workers.
• Stock Valuations Surpass 1929 Levels.
• Newsom Places California Under 3-Week Stay At Home Order, CDC Chief Says COVID Worst Health Crisis In A Century: Live Updates.
• Ivy League Librarians Demand A "World Without Policing".
• Delta Air Lines Hemorrhages Cash; CEO Warns 'Forward Bookings Slowing' Again.
• Dollar Dump Sparks Bid For Bonds & Bullion; Pfizer Faux-Pas F**ks Stocks.

Newsmax:

• Freedom Caucus Demands AG Barr Update on Election Fraud Probe. 
• GOP Rep. Gohmert Scolds DOJ, FBI, AG Barr: 'Do Your Jobs!'.

@RealDonaldTrump: 

•  Dominion Exposed. This video should terrify every single American. (video)
  

@kylenabecker:

• Okay, you want numbers? Here are some numbers:  GEORGIA: 2,056 felons illegally voted 66,248 under 18 voted 2,423 weren’t registered at all 1,043 used a PO Box 4,926 voted past the reg. date 10,315 died before the election 395 voted in two states 15,700 moved out of state 40,279 changed county and didn’t re-register to vote.
• Dominion. Voting security expert @RussRamsland ran Dominion systems' results versus ALL OTHER voting software systems. FIVE PERCENT. That is how much better Biden "outperformed" with Dominion Voting Systems versus ALL OTHER voting systems software.
  
  
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Project Veritas: CNN’s Jeff Zucker Protected Joe Biden by Dismissing and Refusing to Pursue Allegations of Child Sex Abuse Against Hunter (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Has Enormous Sway Over Wall Street, Hopes for Biden Win: Chinese Professor.
• Activist Disappears After Protesting Against Chinese Regime on Twitter.
• Beijing Poses Greatest Threat to US, Free World Since WWII: Director of National Intelligence.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.5 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.09 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,471.0 +7.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.4 -.43%
• FTSE 100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BIG)/.66
• (GCO)/-.14
• (HDS)/.47
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is estimated to fall to 475K versus 638K in Oct.
• The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated to fall to 6.8% versus 6.9% in Oct. 
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Oct. 
• The Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated to widen to -$64.8B versus -$63.9B in Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.1% gain in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking and the Canada Balance of Trade report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Airline Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,470.0 -2.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.66 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +1.9

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.7 -.04%

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +25.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms .96 +43.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.70 -.89%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 649.81 -1.16%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.05 -2.64%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.62 -.76%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.80 -.68%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.41 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.13 +.7%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 78.0 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 75.20 +1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 135.0 +5.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.1 -2.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 71.0% of Issues Advancing, 26.2% Declining
• 149 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 84.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,504.0 +32.0 points
• Vix 20.9 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .60 -11.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +80.6%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• The Ticking Debt Bomb in China’s $15 Trillion Bond Market.
• Australia Says It Won’t Give Ground on China’s Grievances.  
• South Korean Lawmakers Approve Bigger-Than-Planned 2021 Budget.
• U.K. Approves Vaccine; U.S. Hospital Use Surges: Virus Update. 
• Stocks Pause Around Record High; Dollar Slips: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises With U.S. Supply Dropping and OPEC Inching Toward Deal.  
• Great Accelerator, Woes Eclipse Vaccine, Housing Frenzy: Eco Day.  
• Mortgage Refinancing Wave Not Letting Up, to Investors’ Chagrin.  
• House Approves Restrictions on Chinese Firms Listing in U.S.   
• Electric Vehicle Rally Comes to a Halt as Hurdles Emerge.  
• Macquarie Buys Waddell & Reed in $1.7 Billion Cash Deal.  
• U.S. Farm Profit on Track for Seven-Year High After Trump Aid.  
• Okta Projects Revenue Topping Estimates on Remote-Work Demand.

Wall Street Journal:

• China Has One Powerful Friend Left in the U.S.: Wall Street.
• U.K. Becomes First Country to Approve Pfizer Covid Vaccine.
• Which Schools Leave Parents With Most College Loan Debt?
• The Election Went Down to Georgia.
• CDC Shortens Recommended Quarantine Period to Seven to 10 Days.

Fox News:

• Supporters protest outside Staten Island tavern in defiance of COVID restrictions.
  

CNBC.com:

• XPO Logistics CEO says company is in the middle of the ‘e-comm boom’.
• Pelosi and Schumer back $900 billion coronavirus stimulus plan as basis for negotiations.
• Cramer urges Biden to heed lessons of Trump’s China trade war: ‘Taking a hard line gets results’.
• Snowflake shows 119% revenue growth in first earnings report as a public company.
• U.S. states plan to sue Facebook next week, sources say.
• Kaplan says he’s not in favor of Fed increasing bond purchases.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: President Trump Delivers His "Most Important Speech Ever".
• US Offers $5 Million For Info On China's 'Flagrant' N.Korea Sanctions Violations.
• Post-George Floyd, A Wave Of "Anti-Racist" Teaching Sweeps K-12 Schools Targeting "Whiteness".
• Defunding Police Backfires In Minneapolis As Shootings, Homicides, And Carjackings Surge.
• Americans Panic Bought Guns On Black Friday.
• Democratic Austin Mayor Urged Citizens "Not To Relax... Stay Home" While Vacationing In Cabo.
• Iran To Boot Nuclear Inspectors Unless Access To Banking & Oil Markets Restored.
• Dominion Whistleblower Testifies On "Complete Fraud" At Detroit Voting Center.
• House Passes Bill Forcing Chinese Companies To Agree To Audit Oversight Or Delist From US.
• Just How Frothy Is The Stock Market?
• The Government Has Printed 40 Cents For Every Dollar That Existed In March.
• Chinese 'Influence Operation' Targeting Members Of Team Biden.
• After This New Wave Of Lockdowns, Most People Will Accept Any "Solution" Because They'll Be So Desperate.
• Cuomo Says 170k COVID Vaccine Doses Headed To NY; NJ Hospitalizations Highest Since May Peak: Live Updates.
• Bonds Bloodbath As Jobs Flop, Gold Pops, Dollar Drops.

Newsmax:

• Trump Blasts Durham for Not Finishing Probe Before Election.  
• Sidney Powell’s Dominion Quest in Georgia Gets Expedited Appeal. 
• Giuliani Calls on Michigan GOP to 'Step Up' Amid 'Massive Fraud'.
• Pa. Republicans Say Supreme Court Could Yet Upend Vote.
  

Factbase Videos:

• President Trump's Speech on Evidence of Massive US Voter Fraud. (video)
  

 @kylenabecker:

• Michigan. "We need to open up those ballots for the integrity... because we cannot move forward in any further election." Dr. Linda Tarver was a rockstar at #MichiganHearings. She worked 29 years for MI Sec. of State. This is *NOT* her first election fraud rodeo. WATCH: 
• "The nation's top voting machine maker has admitted in a letter to a federal lawmaker that the company installed remote-access software"... It's spooky how left-wing Doppelganger
  @jennycohn1 has been so great at digging up nuggets both left & right should agree is unacceptable.
• Witness in Michigan says she was directed to BACKDATE absentee ballots with the “phony date of the day” given to her by a supervisor. (video)
  

The Epoch Times:

• COVID-19 Outbreak Worsens in China’s Inner Mongolia.
• Over 1,000 Chinese Military-Linked Researchers Have Left US Since Federal Crackdown: DOJ Official.
• Chinese State Media Misrepresents Facts to Claim COVID-19 Didn’t Originate From China.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.5 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.71 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,500.0 +28.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.36 +.14%
• FTSE 100 futures -.29%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CBRL)/.43
• (DG)/1.98
• (DCI)/.45
• (KR)/.66
• (MIK)/.59
• (SIG)/-.66
• (TD)/1.28
  

After the Close:

• (CLDR)/.09
• (COO)/3.11
• (DOCU)/.10
• (MRVL)/.25
• (OLLI)/.58
• (SWBI)/.63
• (ULTA)/1.47
• (ZUMZ)/.76
  

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov.

8:30 am EST:

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 775K versus 778K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 5800K versus 6071K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 55.8 versus 56.6 in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory, (CENT) investor day and the (NCR) investor day report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 -.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,488.0 +44.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.83 +.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.7 -3.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .67 +3.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.75 -.25%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 660.32 -.66%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.56 +2.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.07 -1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.61 +.15%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.43 +.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 +2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.65 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 75.5 +5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.30 -2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 129.1 +2.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.7 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +65 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long