Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +1.9% 2) Shipping +1.7% 3) Oil Service +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CDXC, GME, OII, SEAS, AMC, PUBM, LMNX, RVLV, CCRN, WOW, PDCE, TWTR, FCN, TNDM, DFIN, MP, BCOR, PWR, SNBR, ERII, VIRT, RCII, ORGO, W, MAXR and WKHS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GEO 2) NCR 3) CXW 4) SOXS 5) UFS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) W 2) RVLV 3) NKE 4) TFX 5) STX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +35.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 26.7% of Issues Advancing, 71.1% Declining
• 267 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 83.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,955.0 +140.0 points
• Vix 23.4 +9.8%
• Total Put/Call .61 -11.6%
• TRIN/Arms .71 +10.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.78 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,928.0 +126.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.95 +.8%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.49%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AAON)/.29
• (AES)/.44
• (AEP)/.79
• (AMT)/2.13
• (AMWD)/1.63
• (PLAN)/-.10
• (BUD)/1.14
• (BBY)/2.94
• (CARS)/.47
• (CLF)/.28
• (DPZ)/3.59
• (FSS)/.40
• (FCN)/1.17
• (SJM)/2.21
• (MRNA)/-.36
• (NTES)/2.91
• (PZZA)/.48
• (PWR)/.99
• (SAFM)/-.56
• (SWI)/.25
• (TD)/1.47
• (W)/.88
• (WWW)/.17
  

After the Close:

• (ADT)/.31
• (ABNB)/2.78
• (ADSK)/1.07
• (BYND)/-.12
• (CZR)/-1.61
• (CVNA)/-.49
• (DELL)/2.14
• (DASH)/-.31
• (EOG)/.37
• (ETSY)/.69
• (FSLR)/1.07
• (GRPN)/.27
• (HPQ)/.67
• (LYV)/-2.26
• (MTZ)/1.66
• (MNST)/.62
• (NKLA)/-.34
• (RMAX)/.45
• (CRM)/.75
• (SHAK)/-.12
• (SFM)/.38
• (VMW)/2.04
• (WDAY)/.55
• (ZS)/.08
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
• Durables Ex Transports for Jan. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Jan. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a .7% gain in Dec.  
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 825K versus 861K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4460K versus 4494K prior. 
• 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +4.2% versus a prior estimate of a +4.0% gain.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated unch. versus a -.3% decline in Dec.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 17.0 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Quarles speaking, German GfK Consumer Confidence, $62B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (TWTR) analyst day, (MLM) investor day, (CR) investor day, (AWK) investor day and the (AKAM) investor summit could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.8 -5.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,7789.0 +52.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.08 +.61%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.96 +.81%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 -3.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 +27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -5.3%

• NYSE Arms .64 -1.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.26 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 481.40 -.83%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.93 -1.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.97 -.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.71 -1.94%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.25 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  84.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.73 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 122.0 -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 167.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 80.3 +4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 154.4 +.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.7 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +420 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +136 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/industrial/medical/biotech/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +5.6% 2) Alt Energy +4.9% 3) Airlines +3.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OMI, FSR, PUBM, DMYI, PSTX, ITRI, PRAH, HALO, GBOX, WSFS, MP, NOG, LOB, BIGC, SLDB, UAL, EBIX, NCLH, MRO, TRIP, BOOT, SUM, MXL, FLR, MCFE, TEN, FRPT, LMNX, CUK, ESRT, RCL, SITE, PRCH, ERII, PRU, OSK, NESR, NRZ, DEN, CCL, LUV, RTP, SVC, DEI, RHP, HT, NBLX, TMDX, SVC, MAR, NBLX and ACIC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACM 2) PAGP 3) STAY 4) OSK 5) DBC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPT 2) PUBM 3) HZNP 4) MCFE 5) OSK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 64.7% of Issues Advancing, 33.1% Declining
• 289 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 82.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,712.0 -23.0 points
• Vix 22.7 -1.6%
• Total Put/Call .61 -18.7%
• TRIN/Arms .61 -6.2%