Thursday, April 01, 2021

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -14.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sector Declining
  • 70.1% of Issues Advancing, 27.3% Declining
  • 100 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 87.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,033.0 +122.0 points
  • Vix 18.0 -7.1%
  • Total Put/Call .60 -18.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.37 -16.0%

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:                   
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:   
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com: 
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.15 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,887.0 -27.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.60 -.33%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (KMX)/1.26
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for March.
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 675K versus 684K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3750K versus 3870K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +1.7% gain in Jan.
  • ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 61.5 versus 60.8 in Feb. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 83.5 versus 86.0 in Feb.
Afternoon
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to fall to 83.5 versus 86.0 in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia Retail Sales report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.1 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,913.0 -77.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.42 +.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 +3.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 -1.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.43 -85.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.36 -3.75%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 478.70 -.53%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.82 -2.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.99 +.37%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.63 -2.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.82 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 +3.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.75 +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.11 +.70%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 159.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.50 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.10 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 173.0 -9.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +262 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -1.1% 2) Insurance -.8% 3) Energy -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VIAC, DOX, ADN and HGEN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WBA 2) WSM 3) CLF 4) ARMK 5) KMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DOX 2) RMO 3) CYDY 4) CNO 5) DASH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +3.8% 2) Semis +3.2% 3) Social Media +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CONN, CHPT, CLF, CCCC, AYI, NPTN, PCT, DDOG, FMTX, HYFM, MNTK, SQ, SNPR, CHWY, OMP, HOG, AVLR, BSY, BSIG, CURI, ARES, KYMR, AMAT, WBA, HEES, TWOU, OM, PLAN, SWAV, DSSI, ANGO, LUNG, ILMN and KOD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BGCP 2) ACM 3) UA 4) FXC 5) ISRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CLF 2) AYI 3) HOG 4) CHWY 5) WBA

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -24.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sector Declining
  • 58.5% of Issues Advancing, 38.1% Declining
  • 154 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 87.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,908.0 -81.0 points
  • Vix 19.4 -1.2%
  • Total Put/Call .78 +1.3%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.30 +63.6%