Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,512.04 +1.6%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,444.71 +1.0%

• NASDAQ 15,131.45 +2.9%

• Russell 2000 2,280.53 +5.2%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.31 +6.22%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 337.16 +7.1%

• Wilshire 5000 46,802.0 +2.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,905.90 +2.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,608.96 +1.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 742.67 -1.4%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,422.95 +1.9%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,296.74 +4.7%

• Transports 14,912.43 +2.4%

• Utilities 933.27 -1.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 73.93 +1.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 51.46 +3.9%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,456.10 +.86%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 928.94 -.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 477,581 +.77%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 89 +592

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -38.6 -3.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 404,323 +.98%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,135,698 -2.7%

• Total Put/Call .85 -10.5%

• OEX Put/Call 2.93 +8.5%

• ISE Sentiment 136.0 -17.0 point

• NYSE Arms .79 +21.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,836.0 +477.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 5.69 +2.5% 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.18 -12.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.91 -5.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.96 -2.77%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.7 -3.97%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,992.37 -1.09%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.527 Trillion +.09%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +13.658 Million

• AAII % Bulls 39.6 +19.3%

• AAII % Bears 33.0 -6.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 219.18 +5.9%

• Crude Oil 68.77 +10.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 227.70 +14.0%

• Natural Gas 4.37 +13.9%

• Heating Oil 211.13 +11.0%

• Gold 1,817.41 +2.0%
• Silver 24.04 +4.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 466.38 +2.69%

• Copper 431.6 +3.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 455.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.35 USD/Metric Tonne +20.8%

• Lumber 482.50 +4.97%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,310.34 +2.4%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 580.0 USD/Short Ton +5.5%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +5.1% -1.0 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.8% -2.0 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +7.3 -13.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 53.6 -18.2%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 213.65 +.86%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.5 -12.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.7 -20.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.5 -8.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 9/22

• US Dollar Index 92.68 -.82%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,721.95 +.63%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 48,375 -.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.68 +.84%
  

• Yield Curve 110.0 +8.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.31% +5.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.294 Trillion -.12%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9.97 +1.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 119.33 -3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 unch.
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.24 -2.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 178.01 -6.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.52 -.01%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.54 +1.21%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 80.94 -6.62%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.6 +.69%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40% +12.0 basis points

• TED Spread 7.75 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 46.49 -6.3%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 322.0 -9.22%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 52.59 -2.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 153.54 -7.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 72.5 -3.5 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.5 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.1 -1.0 basis point
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,149.50 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 366,500 -3.0%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.86% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 737,100 +1.6%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 57.2 +.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +15.9% +.3 percentage point

• Nationwide Gas $3.17/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 4,195 +2.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,079.04 +1.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 145.04 +5.7%

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,519 +.3%
• US Covid-19:  330 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +26/100K people
• US Covid-19:  62% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak +5.0 percentage points
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +5.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.6%
  

Leading Sectors

• Oil Servcie +14.1%

• Gaming +14.0%
  

• Airlines +10.6%

• Shipping +8.4%
  

• Alt Energy +8.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Healthcare Providers -.1%
  

• Telecom -.2%

• Foods -.9%

• Utilities -1.9%

• Pharma -2.3%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)

• SPRT, BILL, PBF, JOBY, WDAY, CUBI, HP, COHU, MRSN, PRAX, TGTX, CARA, ARCH, BMRN, LPRO, PCOR, DIN, COG, ZION, CANO, ATEN, MTW, HEAR, KRP, PRFT, SCPL and DYN
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)

• BIG, OLLI and SAVA
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Diminishing Fed Taper Fears, Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.3 -13.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,844.0 +178.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.68 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.0 -3.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0  +47.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -3.5%

• NYSE Arms .77 -48.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.58 -3.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 422.54 -1.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.3 -1.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.91 -.83%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 153.4 -3.88%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.49 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.

• TED Spread 7.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.04 +.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 101.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 163.85 USD/Metric Tonne +6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.5 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.7 -1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.5 -1.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 330 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +5/100K people
• 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +48 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -.1% 2) Medical Equipment +.5% 3) Computer Hardware +.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ATSG, DELL, BIG, OLLI, PTON, DOMO, VMW, AGFY, HIBB and SAVA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WDAY 2) SPRT 3) LQD 4) PBF 5) DELL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APLT 2) VMW 3) PTON 4) APLT 5) OLLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +5.7% 2) Gold & Silver +3.9% 3) Energy +3.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPRT, BILL, PBF, QTRX, JOBY, CUBI, PRAX, WDAY, COHU, MARA, ICPT, TGTX, MRSN, PAYA, CARA, EHTH, BMRN, FIGS, HP, DIN, ARCH, COUP, CANO, ANF, PCOR, ATEN, ACLS, DYN, ZION, JWN, PLTR, HEAR, ATI, KRON, ARNA, FRPT, MTTR and MTW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WDAY 2) HP 3) BBIG 4) CEMI 5) CRK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WDAY 2) BILL 3) SPRT 4) NURO 5) CUBI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 80.5% of Issues Advancing, 16.1% Declining
• 108 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 67.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,845.0 +179.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,627 unch.
  
• Vix 16.5 -12.2%
• Total Put/Call .84 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .65 -56.1%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.75 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.69 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,584.0 -82.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.9%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BIG)/1.12
• (HIBB)/1.38
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$90.9B versus -$91.2B in June.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.1% gain in June.
• Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.0% gain in June.
• The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking at Jackson Hole could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.