Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,452.37 +.19%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,776.0 +.38%

• NASDAQ 15,023.85 -.40%

• Russell 2000 2,253.50 +.7%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.54 +1.98%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 321.95 -.5%

• Wilshire 5000 46,192.13 +.26%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,882.43 -.25%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,578.18 +.64%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 736.44 -.5%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,422.35 +.26%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,301.48 +.08%

• Transports 14,377.08 +.5%

• Utilities 894.05 -1.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.09 +.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.82 -.97%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,465.68 -.24%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 926.59 -.08%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 478,635 unch.

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 90 +120

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.8 +1.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 355,064 +1.7%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,145,165 +1.8%

• Total Put/Call .95 -6.3%

• OEX Put/Call 2.02 +14.1%

• ISE Sentiment 80.0 -13.0 point

• NYSE Arms .87 -18.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,193.0 +241.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 5.56 unch.
  

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -3.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.7 -2.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.9 -.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.8 +.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,299.93 -1.84%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.515 Trillion +1.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +19.607 Million

• AAII % Bulls 29.9 +33.5%

• AAII % Bears 39.2 -.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 223.99 +.85%

• Crude Oil 74.05 +2.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 219.17 -.04%

• Natural Gas 5.11 +.57%

• Heating Oil 226.80 +2.2%

• Gold 1,750.32 -.16%
• Silver 22.38 +.22%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 486.78 +.49%

• Copper 427.95 +.28%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 442.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.20 USD/Metric Tonne +23.7%

• Lumber 653.90 +2.68%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,281.14 +.58%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 605.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.7% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.6% +.1 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +7.64 -7.4%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 55.7 -73.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 214.22 -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.8 +14.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.5 -44.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 -4.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 97.9% chance of no change, 2.1% chance of rate hike on 11/3

• US Dollar Index 93.29 +.12%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,731.87 -.01%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 41,854 -12.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.88 +.57%
  

• Yield Curve 119.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.45% +8.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.451 Trillion +.49%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13.46 +2.59%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 122.91 +2.97%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.49 +21.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 199.58 +10.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.92 +7.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.89 +6.8%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.02 +12.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 37.20 -.97%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 10.0 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.11 +9.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 303.0 +1.1%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.35 +9.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 174.50 +13.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 74.25 +.5 basis point
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.75 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,188.80 +.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 335,750 unch.
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% +20.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.88% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 742,700 +4.9%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 56.3 -1.4 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +16.3% +.4 percentage point

• Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 4,651 +8.8%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,157.60 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 155.22 +16.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,832 +10.6%
• US Covid-19:  273 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -54/100K people
• US Covid-19:  51% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak -10.0 percentage points
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +6.0%

• Energy +4.4%
  

• Banks +3.3%

• Oil Service +2.2%
  

• Defense +2.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -1.5%
  

• Gold & Silver -2.0%

• Homebuilding -2.7%

• Digital Health -3.0%

• Steel -6.6%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)

• MDP, PRGS, SAVA, BJRI, PLXP, KRP, MTN, PLAY, SBGI, CPE, CAKE, VRS, H, SNAP, OSTK, ORMP, ANGI, AOSL, NKLA, INVE, FSR, CYH, GT, CCL, PXD, M, CF and IRWD
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• AMED, CHWY, CODI, OLO, ATUS, HIBB, PRTS, HYFM and DECK
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Labor/Product Shortage Concerns, Higher Long-Term Rates, US Dollar Strength, Biotech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -3.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,199.0 +124.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.91 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +1.14%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.5 +3.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 77.0  -20.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -20.5%

• NYSE Arms .84 +75.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.11 +.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.09 +.64%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.39 +.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.46 +2.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.50 +3.55%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 37.19 -.33%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 10.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.25 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.16 -.46%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 119.0 +8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.5 USD/Metric Tonne +5.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.8 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.5 +3.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• 97.9% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 95.4% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 273 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -9/100K people
• 51% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -188 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs,
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.6% 2) Digital Health -1.6% 3) Alt Energy -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MGY, CHWY, ATUS, DOCN, NKE, PRTS, HIBB, DECK, HYFM and TASK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APRN 2) F 3) T 4) NKE 5) ATUS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DECK 2) WDG 3) MARA 4) EAR 5) NKE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.7% 2) Airlines +1.2% 3) Road & Rail +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDP, PRGS, DMYI, XLRN, SAVA, KRP, MTN, EHTH, CAKE, AMRS, H, INVE, IAC, SNAP, PRIM, CCL and COST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APRN 2) TPX 3) CF 4) AEHR 5) CTLP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AEHR 2) PRGS 3) MDP 4) CHUY 5) CMLS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 42.2% of Issues Advancing, 53.6% Declining
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 60.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,148.0 +72.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,858 -.22%
  
• Vix 18.7 +.21%
• Total Put/Call .87 +11.5%
• TRIN/Arms .76 +58.3%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• China’s Casino Crackdown Part of Bigger Quest to Transform Macau.  
• Taper Warning Signs Flash to Markets From India’s Central Bank.  
• U.K. Confidence Falls as Consumers Brace for Income Squeeze.
• Asian Stocks Set for Steady Open; Bond Yields Jump: Markets Wrap.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start your Day. 
• Fed Behind the Curve, India Taper Warning, Lonely ECB: Eco Day.
• Biden's Booster Crusade Limps to Finish Line, Dogged by Uncertainty.
  
• Household Net Worth in U.S. Hits Record on Surging Home Values.
• House Democrats Plan Saturday Votes to Advance Tax, Spend Plan.  
• White House Weighs Invoking Defense Law to Get Chip Data.

Wall Street Journal:   

• $3.5 Trillion Is a Phony Number.
• China Prepares for Downfall of Debt-Laden Evergrande.
• Disney Isn’t Investigating Handling of Misconduct Claims, After ABC News Boss Urged Inquiry.  
• Biden’s Reconciliation Mess.  
• Scapegoats at the Texas Border.  
• China’s Answer to Aukus.

Fox News:  

• AOC appears to cry after Squad’s anti-Israeli agenda gets squashed.
  

CNBC.com:  

• Nike shares fall as supply chain havoc leads retailer to slash revenue forecast.
• Costco brings back purchase limits on toilet paper, cleaning supplies and more.

Zero Hedge:

• Federal Workers Sue Biden Over Vaccine Mandate.
• Amid Squalor & Misery, Hospital Strained By Influx Of Illegal Immigrants: Del Rio Democrat Mayor.
• Evergrande Selective Default: Offshore Bondholders "Run Out Of Hope" For Coupon Payment.
• Evergrande Auto Hasn't Sold A Single Car, But Has Enriched Its Founder And His Friends Plenty.
• Tropical Storm Sam Forms In Atlantic Basin, Expected To Become Major Hurricane This Weekend.
• Pelosi Vows To Avert Shutdown As Dems Reportedly Cave To "Republican Blockade".
• Facebook Overpaid FTC Fine By Billions To Shield CEO Zuckerberg From Personal Liability, New Lawsuits Allege.
• Corona Wars: Biden's Battle For Total Control.
• Taiwan On High Alert After 24 Chinese Jets Breach Defense Zone In Two Incidents.
• CDC Panel Approves Pfizer Boosters For Older Americans Despite More Pushback.
• Soaring Stocks Shrug Off Debt Ceiling Doubts As Taper Tantrum Sparks Bond Bloodbath.

 Jerusalem Post:

• COVID-19: New 'Mu variant' from Colombia could be vaccine resistant - WHO.

NBC News: 

• More than 20,000 Haitians are gathered in Colombia for possible migration to U.S.

Newsmax:

• Who's Vetting These Folks? Republicans Say Charges Against Afghan Refugees Raise Alarms.
  
• Rep. Reschenthaler: Hypocrisy 'So Rich' on Hunter Biden's Stories.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• North Carolina Hospital Systems Suspends Nearly 400 Employees for Refusing to Get Covid Vaccine.
• NEVER FORGET: FOX News Reporter Trey Yingst: “Thousands” of US Green Card Holders Are Stranded in Afghanistan by Joe Biden …(And Democrats Don’t Care).
• UPDATE: Haitian Illegals in Federal Custody Have “HIJACKED” MULTIPLE Transport Buses And Escaped Into the Interior of The US; “They’ve Been Basically Overpowering the Drivers”.
• Hunter Biden Tried to Shake Down Libya For $2 Million Per Year, Plus ‘Success Fees’ to Help Unfreeze Assets While Joe Biden Was Vice President.
• STUNNING: AMA Is Teaching Doctors How to Manipulate Information in Order to Coerce the Unvaccinated.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 42.25 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.44 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,981.0 -96.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.24%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-1.36

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to rise to 715K versus 708K in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking and the Eurozone CFTC data could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.