Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -4.4% 2) Steel -1.9% 3) Airlines -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FRPT, CZR, FRSH, UBER, IDXX, BGFV, SWKS, ALKT, PTLO, HLF, AKAM, SPR, BFAM, WK, SPT, RRR, DENN, KYMR, LL, EAT, RVLV, BCOR, ANDE, LYFT and TUP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IGT 2) SWKS 3) FIS 4) TRIP 5) THO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LYFT 2) CLVS 3) RVLV 4) AMRX 5) JHG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.1% 3) Restaurants +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TMDX, SMCI, LTHM, ATEN, CHGG, GNRC, SCI, DK, IMXI, SBUX, LITE, PAYC, OMI, ACHC, MASI, AYX, FRGE, EVER, EXPI, ALB, EXR, CWH, GRBK, MWA, ABNB, AMD and WING
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) NOG 3) LYV 4) WTI 5) EMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LTHM 2) SMCI 3) SUP 4) TMDX 5) GNRC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 34.8% of Issues Advancing, 61.0% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 269 New Lows
• 30.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,198.0 +8.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,487 -1.1%
  
• Vix 28.7 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .97 -6.7%
• TRIN/Arms .91 +30.0%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Russia Seeks to Annex Occupied Ukraine as Invasion Goals Shift.
• U.K. Retailers Warn Food Prices Will Drive Inflation in Shops.  
• RBNZ Says Sharp Housing Correction ‘Plausible’ as Rates Rise.  
• U.S. Futures Edge Up as Traders Await Next Fed Cue: Markets Wrap.
• Extraordinary Abortion Leak Threatens Trust at U.S. High Court.  
• Fed Traders Seek an Answer to the 75-Basis-Point Question.  
• Biden’s Team Eyes $125,000 Income Cutoff for Student Loan Relief.  
• Major U.S. Beefpacker Says Steak Prices Will Continue to Soar.
• Inflation Is Also Eating Up Gains in the Post-Covid Bull Market.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hillary Clinton and the Durham Inquiry. The trial that begins in 12 days won’t tell us why she launched the Russia collusion hoax.
• Latest Updates: British Defense Chief Says Putin’s Early Ukraine Objectives Failed.
• Musk Plans to Take Twitter Public a Few Years After Buyout.
• Biogen CEO to Resign After Alzheimer’s Drug Struggles.
• Biden Officials Split on Easing China Tariffs to Slow Inflation.
• GOP Pushback Swamps Plan for Disinformation Board.

Fox News:     

• LIVE UPDATES:Liberal dark money group with Biden ties capitalizes on SCOTUS leak to push court-packing agenda.
  
• Fox News Poll:What voters are most worried about headed into midterm election season.

CNBC.com:

• The Fed is expected to raise rates by a half point. Investors wonder if it will get more aggressive.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Airbnb, Lyft and more.
• The Fed’s aggressive hiking campaign will lead to a recession, according to CNBC survey.

MarketWatch:              

• ‘Bubble stocks popped’ but it’s still not safe to buy them, says Ray Dalio, founder of world’s biggest hedge fund.
  
• Lyft stock plunges 25% after forecast, rider numbers come up short.  
• Airbnb surpasses 100 million nights booked in a quarter for the first time, stock jumps after earnings beat.  
• Match brings in Zynga exec as next CEO, but stock falls as outlook comes up short.  
• AMD hits a sales milestone and expects another one to follow as data-center strategy comes together.  
• Starbucks adding more drive-throughs to boost North American business.

Zero Hedge:

• Previewing The Fed's Decision To Kick Off A Record Tightening Cycle Right Into A Recession.
• Subpoenas Issued In Georgia Ballot-Trafficking Investigation.
• Russia Is Returning To The Gold Standard: Is China Next?
• Watch: Selfie App Scans Eyes For Neurological Diseases.
• Dear Illinois Parents, Your Kid's Sex-Ed Curriculum May Be More Extreme Than You Think.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stock markets eked mild gains with price action choppy on FOMC eve.
• Awaiting THE event...
• Barrage Of Cruise Missiles Rock Western Ukraine, Plunging Lviv Into Darkness.
• D-Day Approaches: Crack Spread Soars As Diesel Market Braces For Historic Shock.
• Pelosi: Russia's War Requires "Strongest Military Response".
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks choppy and yields flatten on the eve of FOMC.
• WTI Rebounds After Big Surprise Crude & Product Draws.
• The Gerontocracy Strikes Back.
• Bonds Bid, Stocks Skid Ahead Of Fed As US NatGas Soars To 2008 Highs.

 Newsmax:

• UN Warns Grain Shortage Imminent as Russia Blockades Ukrainian Ports.
• Suddenly, It's Catholic Biden Leading Dems' Pro-Abortion Fight in Midterms.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• The Timing Was Intentional: Roe v Wade Leak Was Left’s Answer to “2000 Mules” Documentary Release Today that Proves 2020 Election Was Stolen.
• CDC Restates Recommendation For Masks on Planes Despite Court Ruling That Struck Down Biden’s Mandate.
• Dirty Brad Raffensperger Dismisses Concerns About Drop Boxes During Debate — On Same Night Film on Georgia Ballot Box Trafficking Is Released in His State.
• Joe Biden’s America: A New Record: 4.5 Million Americans Quit Their Jobs in March.
• CDC Used Phone Location Data to Monitor Churches and Schools to Determine Whether Americans Followed Covid Lockdown Orders.
• Coincidence? Planned Parenthood and Abortion Industry Announce $150 Million Spend on Midterms Just Hours Before SCOTUS Leak.
• “Burn It All Down!” – Democrats, Leftists Call for Violence Following Leaked SCOTUS Abortion Ruling.
• ERIC States Won’t Provide Lists That Update Voter Registration. We Must Demand Them!
• Biden Includes $8.8 Billion in the $33 Billion Ukraine Package on Items like Countering Disinformation.

The Epoch Times:

• DeSantis Calls Out Disney for Partnering With China, Making a ‘Fortune’ There While Staying Silent on ‘Atrocities’.

Twitter: 

• @backtolife_2000 - Biden official Samantha Power about fertilizer shortages that threaten the food supply and will force farmers to “hasten transitions.” “Never let a crisis go to waste,” she says. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 810,170 Reports(+2,929 from prior week) Through April 22nd, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +4.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  78.5 -.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.5 +.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,189.0 -1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.0 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%.

• S&P 500 futures +.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ATI)/.20
• (ABC)/2.92
• (GOLD)/.24
• (BWA)/.86
• (EAT)/1.04
• (CVS)/2.14
• (EMR)/1.18
• (GNRC)/1.92
• (IDXX)/2.25
• (JCI)/.63
• (MAR)/.92
• (MRNA)/5.62
• (MUR)/.61
• (ODP)/.79
• (REGN)/9.80
• (UTHR)/3.65
• (VMC)/.63
• (WING)/.37
• (YUM)/1.07
  

After the Close:

• (ALB)/1.63
• (ALL)/2.95
• (APA)/2.09
• (BKNG)/1.18
• (WHD)/.29
• (CF)/4.39
• (CHK)/2.44
• (EBAY)/1.03
• (LOCO)/.07
• (FLEX)/.45
• (FTNT)/.80
• (IR)/.45
• (IRBT)/-1.35
• (MRO)/.98
• (MET)/1.63
• (RCII)/.71
• (SAVE)/-1.58
• (SFM)/.72
• (RGR)/1.73
• (TRIP)/-.08
• (TWLO)/-.21
• (UBER)/-.11

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

•  The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to fall to 385K versus 455K in March.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for March is estimated at -$107.1B versus -$89.2B in Feb.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for April is estimated to rise to 58.5 versus 58.3 in March.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg Consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -76,000 barrels versus a +691,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -512,140 barrels versus a -1,573,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,582,000 barrels versus a -1,449,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.27% versus a -.7% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate from .25-.5% to .75-1.0%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Wells Fargo Industrials Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, weighed down by industrial and metals shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.5 -5.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,126.0 -3.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.95 +.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 -.33%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.6 -3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -16.4%

• NYSE Arms .77 +35.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.20 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 380.55 -.51%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.1 -2.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.50 +3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 283.99 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.33 +.17%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,949.70 +6.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.5 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 44.5 -7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  124.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.34 +.02%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.48 +.67%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .89% +11.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 18.5 (2s/10s) -8.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 141.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +7.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.0 +.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.8 -3.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 129 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +6/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +202 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -61 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 65.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.4% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 187 New Lows
• 30.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,178.0 +48.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,595 -1.17%
  
• Vix 30.4 -5.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.08 -11.5%
• TRIN/Arms .73 +28.1%