Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +6.0% 2) Oil Service +5.7% 3) Networking +4.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VSAT, VRT, IDCC, FRPT, BOX, APA, RCII, BZH, MLKN, WTRG, TCDA, LEVI, FLR, B, WEX, GNK, LBRDK, UNFI, REGN, DGII, GBX, KMX, CHTR, AB, APG, T, TPVG, ECC, FLT, PTY, GMS, AKAM, TDW, MTG, NZF, ORCC and ARCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLR 2) EXC 3) SCO 4) BAX 5) XLU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MYOV 2) LVWR 3) OVV 4) DVN 5) MRO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 80.9% of Issues Advancing, 14.2% Declining
• 10 New 52-Week Highs, 190 New Lows
• 19.0%(+14.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.0 +7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 42.6 -6.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,393.1 -.56%
  
• Vix 30.0 -5.0%
• Total Put/Call .88 -20.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +21.5% 

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 187.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 109.5 -4.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.05 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 45.6 +.6%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.44 -9.0 basis points 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.3 +.73%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -2.23%.
• S&P 500 futures -.63%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.4% decline in July. 
• ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to fall to 52.3 versus 52.8 in Aug.
• ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.5 in Aug.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 13.5M versus 13.18M in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, (ILMN) investor day and the (SBGI) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Thousands March in UK Cities to Protest on Cost-of-Living Crisis.  
• City of London Shellshocked by Kwarteng’s ‘Fiasco’ of a Budget.  
• London Gold Dealer Runs Out of Bullion as Truss Budget Shocks.  
• Cow’s Milk Becomes Pricier Than Non-Dairy Alternatives in UK.  
• UK Regulators Meet to Prevent New Gilt Selloff, FT Says.
• ‘Fear Is Contagious’ as UK Crisis Boils Over Into Other Markets.
  
• Gazprom Cuts Off Supplies of Russian Gas to Italy  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Says Its Troops Leave Key Town of Lyman.
• Chief Putin Critic Wins Elections in Latvia, Exit Poll Shows.  
• Iran’s Bloody Protests Stretch Into Third Week Amid Crackdowns.  
• Macau Casinos See Another Dismal Month as China Lockdowns Widens.
  
• Lula, Bolsonaro in Final Campaign Sprint for Brazilian Election.  
• OPEC+ to Hold In-Person Oil Meeting Next Week in Vienna.   
• Oil Traders Regain Their Swagger With World Desperate for Fuel.
  
• Demand for Aluminum Slows in Another Sign of Troubled Economy.
• Fed Begins to Split on the Need for Speed to Peak Rates.   
• RWE to Buy Con Edison Clean Energy Unit for $6.8 Billion.
• Your Saturday Briefing: The Aftermath of a Disaster.  
• Few Florida Homes Hit by Hurricane Ian Are Covered for Floods.
• Runaway Bear Market Blows Past Everything Meant to Slow It Down.   
• El-Erian Warns ‘Economic Accident’ Would Precede Any Central Bank Pivot.
• Raging Markets Selloff in Five Charts: $36 Trillion and Counting.
• Charting the Global Economy: UK Turmoil; Hurricane Ian Hits US.   
• US Jobs at Cruising Speed May Keep Up Pressure on Fed: Eco Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.K.’s Market Woes Show Pitfalls for Other Economies 
• Covid Fraud Hits $45.6 Billion. As the theft total mounts, Democrats in Congress refuse to do anything about it.
• Florida Death Toll Up to 23 as Ian Barrels North.
• FTC Probes Market Power of One of Country’s Biggest Anesthesia Providers.
• If Politics Is a ‘Joke,’ Voters Get It. The public is forced to learn the symbolism of Trump and Democratic hoaxes. 
• ‘Implicit Bias’ Training Cost Me My Nursing Job. States are forcing medical professionals to make false confessions of racism. I refused to go along. 
• CME Considers Brokerage, Taking Cue From Crypto Rival FTX.
• The Next Big Battle Between Google and Apple Is for the Soul of Your Car.
• Dish, Sling Subscribers Lose Access to Disney Networks in Contract Dispute.
• Nikola Tries to Ignite Market for Its Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Trucks.
• Elon Musk Unveils Prototype of Tesla’s Humanoid Robot Optimus, Says It Will Cost Less Than a Car.
• Iran Students, Shopkeepers Go on Strike as Protest Movement Maintains Strength.
  

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (OWL), (SEAT), (CHPT), (LAZR), (VCSA) and (OLPX).

Fox News:

• LIVE UPDATES:Florida personnel go door to door warning of possible new threat in Ian's wake.
• Audience reaction when Maher suggests dropping VP in 2024 says it all. 
• Harris ripped for suggesting race-based relief for hurricane victims. 
• Obama judge slaps down election lawsuit in state where Biden slammed 'Jim Crow' voting system.

CNBC:

• Dow tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down nearly 9%.
• This might be the biggest obstacle unions face in the coming months.
• ‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world.
• The 10 least popular states to move to in 2022. 
• Underperformance is ‘abysmal’ in the long run for active fund managers.

Zero Hedge:

• FDA Withholding Autopsy Results On People Who Died After Getting COVID-19 Vaccines.
• Collapse In Money Supply Is Still A Major Risk For The Market. 
• Why Bonds Are Behaving Like Risky Assets.
• California City Holding 'Groceries For Guns' Drop-Off Event.
• 'The Crisis Is Upon Us' - Macleod Warns 'We Have Never Seen Anything Like This'.
• "Gone In 30 Minutes" - Next On Europe's Doomsday List: Collapse Of Cell Phone Networks.
• Malone: Human Cyborgs Are Just The Beginning.
• Senate GOP Judiciary Committee To Investigate 'Excessive' FBI Raid Of Pennsylvania Pro-Life Activist’s Home. 
• Pfizer CEO Bails On EU Testimony After Report Highlights 'Secretive' Vaccine Deal.
• The bounce case is appealing, but....
• California Gasoline Is Now More Than Double The Price In Texas.
• Election-Denier Stacey Abrams Loses Again After Judge Tosses 'Voter Suppression' Lawsuit. 
• U.S. Pension Funds Could Face Their Own "Lehman Moment".
• FBI Agents Improperly Saw Privileged Trump Communications: Lawyers.
• Faced With 'Acts Of Sabotage', EU Countries Rush To Secure Energy Assets.
• London On Verge Of Losing Europe Market Supremacy.
• Turkey Builds Up Troops In Northern Cyprus, Rages At "Inexplicable" US Decision.
• Luongo: The Curious Whodunit Of Nordstreams 1 & 2.
• Anti-Globalism Is Going Mainstream – Which Means Engineered Disaster Is About To Strike.
• Global 'Unhappiness' Is Soaring.
• 'Libs Of TikTok' Threatens To Sue Twitter Over New Suspension.
• How Do Americans Spend Their Money, By Generation?
• Stockman Slams Washington's Pointless War On Behalf Of A Fake Nation.
• Exxon CEO Pushes Back On Biden's Plan To Limit Fuel Exports.
• Durham Prosecutes FBI Informants, While Protecting Their Handlers: Sperry.
• "Globalists Are Marching Us Relentlessly Toward Nuclear Armageddon," Warns Former Senator.

MarketWatch.com:             

• Stocks and bonds are ‘discounting for a disaster’ after the worst stretch for investors in 20 years. 

NewsMax:  

• Fort Myers Beach 'Pretty Much Gone' After Ian.
  
• Herschel Walker: 'I'm Going to Win Outright'.
• Sen. Johnson: Biased Media Covering Up for Barnes, Fetterman.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Signs Bill Honoring Rep. Jackie Walorski, Days After Forgetting that She Died.
• BREAKING: Maricopa County BLOCKS The Gateway Pundit Reporter Access To 2022 Midterm Election Coverage In County. 
• Speculation Grows That Dem Senator Will Switch Parties Or Become Independent.
• 20-Year-Old Nursing Student Dies Suddenly of Cardiac Arrest. 
• BIDEN ECONOMY: Stocks Endure Worst September Since 2002 in the Worst Year for the Markets Ever!
• Is China Secretly Operating Inside the Hawaiian Real Estate Market Under the Noses of the U.S. military?
• Sweden Removes Recommendation on General Vaccination Against COVID-19 for Ages 12 to 17.
• World Class Pakistani Cricketer Dead at 36 Years of Age From “Horrific Cardiac Arrest”.
• WATCH: Beto O’Rourke Claims He Doesn’t Support Defunding Police, But Here’s a Video of Him Saying the Opposite.
• 10 STRAIGHT MINUTES of Every Prominent Democrat Denying the Election Results in 2016 – Hypocrites Caught on Video.
• “I Don’t See How We Could Be Stupider in the West if We Actually Took Courses in Stupidity” – MUST SEE VIDEO: Jordan Peterson on the Collapse of Germany.
• President Trump Says that Mitch McConnell Has a “DEATH WISH” By Backing Insane Dem Spending Bills.
• Inflation Soars to 10% in Europe – Euro Zone Inflation Doubles in First 9 Months of 2022… And It Will Likely Get Worse.
• Despite Failed Ballot Initiative Leftist Katie Hobbs Attempts To BLOCK Historic School Choice Expansion That Would Refund Families Who Pay For Private School Or Homeschooling.
• Arizona Has A SOROS-BACKED Democrat Running For District Attorney In Maricopa County.
• “It’s Not About Kicking Balls in the Authority Or Anything” – John Fetterman When Asked How He’s Doing (VIDEO).
• Newsom Signs Bill Making California “Sanctuary State” For Children Seeking ‘Gender Affirming’ Surgery – Without Parental Consent.
  

The Epoch Times: 

• China’s Factory, Services Surveys Suggest Economy Struggling to Rebound.
• Detainment of US Diplomats in Chinese COVID-19 Camps Must End: Congressmen.

Twitter:

• @IGSquawk - Weekend markets update: #DAX 11943 -0.25% #DOW 28731 -0.16% #FTSE 6816 -0.22% #HANGSENG 17092 -0.08% #GBPUSD 11158 -0.10% #EURUSD 9791 -0.11% #USDJPY 14472 -0.02%.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 867,627 Reports(+2,042 from prior week) Through September 16th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• UK Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P Amid Rising Fiscal Risks.  
• S&P Cuts Turkey’s Debt Rating Further into Junk on Loose Policy.
• Putin’s War Machine Funding Is Unscathed by Latest Sanctions.
• South Korea Posts Longest String of Trade Deficits Since 1997.
• N. Korea Fires Two Suspected Short-Range Ballistic Missiles.
• Aluminum Declines After Record Spike on Russia Supply Fears.
• Runaway Bear Market Blows Past Everything Meant to Slow It Down. 
  
• It's Getting More Expensive to Bet Against Cathie Wood — And Investors Are Paying Up.
  
• Robinhood Is Closing More Offices With Its Growth Plans Thwarted.
• Hurricane Ian Targeted Florida’s Retirement Belt.
• Hurricane Ian Will Cost US Insurers $63 Billion, Risk Modeler Says.  
• Quants Notch Historic Return Seizing On Endless Inflation.  
• NYC Arranges $225 Million in Debt Relief for Taxi Drivers.  
• Software Robots Are Gaining Ground in White-Collar Office World.  
• Credit Market Moves Toward Breaking Point as Investors Flee, Sales Flop.  
• Americas Are Consuming More Oil, Even If They're Not Driving Much.
• Hurricane Ian Hit Florida at Key Time for Vegetable, Fruit Planting.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ian Makes Landfall in South Carolina After Leaving at Least 21 Dead in Florida.
• Russia Announces Annexation of Four Regions of Ukraine.
• U.S. Stocks Log Third Straight Quarterly Decline.
• Fentanyl’s Ubiquity Inflames America’s Drug Crisis. 
• The Bad Inflation News Continues. Financial markets anticipate that interest rates will keep rising.
• Sanibel Island Residents Describe Ordeal.
• Cuba Makes Rare Request for U.S. Aid After Ian’s Devastation.
• Where Democrats’ Grip on Minority Voters Could Slip in Midterm Elections.
• Fast Food Chains Raise Millions to Oppose California Wage Law.
• Eurozone Inflation Hits Record 10% Amid Energy Crunch.
• Stanley Black & Decker Cuts About 1,000 Finance Jobs.
• Ukraine War Creates Worst Global Food Crisis Since 2008, IMF Says.

Fox News:

• Social media explodes over Pelosi's comment about why illegal immigrants 'need' to stay in Florida.
• LIVE UPDATES: Hundreds of thousands more Americans without power as Ian churns inland.

CNBC:

• Facebook scrambles to escape stock’s death spiral as users flee, sales drop.
• Silicon Valley billionaires square off over support for Trump and the MAGA movement.
• EV and self-driving stocks fell nearly 15% in September, their second-worst month on record.
• Fed’s preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August.

Zero Hedge:

• "Credit Stress Is Critical": BofA Warns The Fed Is About To Break The Corporate Bond Market. 
• Canada Has A Food Affordability Problem.
• Progressive 'De-Prosecutors' Disrupt Criminal Justice System, Experts Say.
• Putin Declares 4 Annexed Regions "Ours Forever", Blames US For Nord Stream Attacks.
• Libertarian Group Sues To Block Biden Student Loan Forgiveness.
• Opioids At Work: Hidden Scourge Sapping The Economy.
• "Full-Fledged Ice Age": Semiconductor Companies Slash Output On Supply Glut.
• Stagflation Is "Just The Beginning" For America's Economic Crisis: Peter Navarro.
• Apple VP Of Procurement Fired After Joke About Fondling Breasts Goes Viral On TikTok.
• Memory Holed, Part II: The "Rigged" Election.
• US Hits Chinese Firms With New Sanctions Over Iranian Oil.
• Watch: Yet Another Democrat Witness Claims Biological Men Can Have Pregnancies.
• Friday's sea of red sees S&P record worst monthly decline since March 2020 - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• India, China, Brazil Abstain From UN Vote Condemning Russian Annexation.
• Pivot-Hope-Punisher Powell Leaves Q3 Global Market Bloodbath In His Wake.
• We Will Now Find Out What Putin Does When It Is "Sovereign Russia" That Is Being Attacked.

MarketWatch.com:              

• Stock-market bulls hope October will be another ‘bear-killer’. Why skeptics are unconvinced.  
• This has been the worst September for stocks since 2002. Here’s what that means for October.  
• Intel files for Mobileye IPO, creating a share structure that will keep the chipmaker in control  
• Here’s what to expect at Tesla AI day.  
• ‘Painfully slow capitulation’: Why investors keep getting inflation wrong.  
• These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 tumbled between 20% and 30% in September.  
• Micron cuts capital spending to stem ‘unprecedented’ oversupply cycle.

NewsMax:

• Report: At Least 42 Dead in Florida From Hurricane Ian.
• Damage Toll in the Billions.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Joe Biden Vows to “Ban Assault Weapons” in the US.
• Newsom Signs Bill Making California “Sanctuary State” For Children Seeking ‘Gender Affirming’ Surgery – Without Parental Consent.
• WARNING: FEDS WARN OF ELECTION DAY VIOLENCE.
• Pelosi Says Illegal Aliens Need to Stay in Florida to “Pick the Crops Down Here” (VIDEO).
• Awkward: Bill Clinton Tells CNN “There is a Limit to How Many Migrants Any Society Can Take”.
• Germany Does It Right! Election In Berlin Must Be Re-Run Due to Discrepancies.
• EXCLUSIVE: Here’s a Full List of Congressional Republicans Funded by Gates.
• Lawless MI Secretary of State Responds to Our 13-Minute Ballot Harvesting Video – Says Dumping Stacks of Ballots into Drop Boxes Is Completely Acceptable, Anything Goes in Michigan!
• Creepy Bill Gates Makes Ominious Prediction: ‘We’re Going To Have A Hung Election And A Civil War,’ Misinformation ‘May Bring It All To An End.
• DOW Down 2,000 Since Biden’s First Day – $9 Trillion Lost in World Stocks in 3Q Alone.
• BREAKING: Killer Shannon Brandt Charged with MURDER of Teen Cayler Ellingson Who He Ran Over for Being Republican.
• Actress Suffers Face Paralysis Weeks After Getting Covid ‘Vaccine,’ Says She’d Do It Again.
• Seattle Children’s Hospital Vows To Keep Performing Gender Surgeries on Children. 
  

The Epoch Times:

• TikTok Is ‘Everything That You Do Not Want in a Modern Democracy’: Tech Expert.
• Republicans Probe Whether China Quarantined US Diplomats to Steal Intelligence, Demand Investigation.
• Beijing Arrested 1.43 Million People in a 100-Day Security Campaign Ahead of National Meeting.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 867,627 Reports(+2,042 from prior week) Through September 16th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).