Friday, December 02, 2022

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Fox News:  

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:

MarketWatch.com:            

NewsMax:    
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,054.88 +.82%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 34,274.8 +.03%
  • NASDAQ 11,394.65 +1.73%
  • Russell 2000 1,882.15 +.84%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 67.7 +1.6%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 163.62 +2.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 40,769.9 +1.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,322.5 +1.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,554.48 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 800.99 +.89%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,034.63 +.67%
  • NYSE Technology 2,783.9 +2.84%
  • Transports 14,506.98 +.57%
  • Utilities 976.29 +.12%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.067 -.44%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.56 +5.2%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,448.25 +.51%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 915.86 +.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 453,571 +.71%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 146 +176
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.3 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 252,475 -9.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,405,565 -4.4%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -5.4%
  • OEX Put/Call .91 -11.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 145.0 +37.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .70 -50.8
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.7 +1.8%
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.20 +16.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.7 -5.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .95% +75.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.1 -3.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.2 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.7 -1.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,737.6 +5.8%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  64.4 +4.1
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.671 Trillion +1.0%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.506 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 24.5 -15.2%
  • AAII % Bears 40.4 +.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 279.46 +2.3%
  • Crude Oil 79.95 +6.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 227.09 +.24%
  • Natural Gas 6.40 -3.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 135.56 euros/megawatt-hour +8.4%
  • Heating Oil 315.33 -1.7% 
  • Newcastle Coal 385.5 (1,000/metric ton) +6.5%
  • Gold 1,795.15 +2.4%
  • Silver 23.07 +6.6%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 452.4 +5.1%
  • Copper 384.90 +6.2%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 381.0 USD/Metric Tonne +10.4%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne +9.3%
  • Lumber  397.6 -6.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,495.60 -.88%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 525.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.84% -142.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -12.2% +1.1 percentage points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 62.5% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.5 +7.2%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 222.5 +111.12%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.15 +.55:  Growth Rate +11.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.9 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 -14.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .2 -1.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of a +25.0 basis point rate hike, 79.4%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 20.6%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 12/14 to 4.50-4.75%
  • US Dollar Index 104.6 -1.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,644.42 +1.14%
  • Bitcoin/USD 16,940.9 +2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.82 -.35%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -77.5 -.5 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.55% -16.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.548 Trillion -.44%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.55 +6.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 175.20 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 +2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.2 +2.7%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.5 -1.7%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 236.62 -9.6%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.5 -3.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.0 +1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.1 +2.9%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.7% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +9.8% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +10.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +7.49% -6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41% +7.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 45.5 -2.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -34.5 +7.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 77.99 -.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 299.0 -.7
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 381.0 -22.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 97.8 -1.2%
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 463.05 +31.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 231.11 -.37%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 unch.
  • Aggregate US CMBS Average OAS 1.26 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.21 +3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 1.3 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,293.4 -1.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 228,750 +.77%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 37.8 -21.3%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.51% -26.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 208,100 -.81%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +8.10% +80.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -15.5% -2.5 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $156.1M -39.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.45/gallon -.13/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,338 +1.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,464.76 -6.3%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 62.50 -13.8%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 26.02 -26.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 206,513 -19.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,044,164 -9.9%
  • US Covid-19:  91 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.4 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -80.5%(+3.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.8%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Value +.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Digital Health +7.1%
  • Steel +6.5%
  • Video Gaming +5.5%
  • Gold & Silver +5.4%
  • Gambling +4.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -1.4%
  • Computer Hardware -1.5%
  • Airlines -1.8%
  • Energy -2.0%
  • Disk Drives -4.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • IOT, SPB, SMAR, PATH, PTON, PD, BBW, HII, AXSM and ARHS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • S, WFC, PSTG, DBI, CAKE, PYPL, BG, STEM, PBF, AMPL, NVAX, DINO, ASAN and CBRL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Banking Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.6 -1.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .95%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.7 +1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.6 -.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.6 -3.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +32.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .88 -7.37%
  • NYSE Arms .73 -58.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.85 +1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 367.99 -.97%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 381.0 +3.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.82 +.96% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 463.05 unch.
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.1 -.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 231.1 +1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.05 +.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 45.5 basis points +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -34.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  135.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 126.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.21 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve -77.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.90 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 135.5 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .2 +1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.15 +.53:  Growth Rate +11.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 17.6 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.43 +12.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.84% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 46.2%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 44.5%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.5%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +205 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long