Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.25 -10.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 68.5 -2.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.18%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  54.4 +.68%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.34 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.5 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANGO)/-.01
• (CAG)/.66
• (STZ)/2.90
• (HELE)/2.60
• (LW)/.74
• (LNN)/1.18
• (MSM)/1.47
• (NEOG)/.14
• (RPM)/1.10
• (SCHN)/-.46
• (WBA)/1.14
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Dec.
  

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Dec. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 127K in Nov.

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Nov. is estimated at -$63.1B versus -$78.2B in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 225K versus 225K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1727K versus 1710K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, CES 2023 and the Goldman Energy/Clean Tech Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on China Re-Opening/Stimulus Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Airline/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -2.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.13%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.6 -.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.3 +1.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.9 -2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +14.3%

• NYSE Arms .86 -37.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.3 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 390.65 -2.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 283.0 +15.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.03 -4.4% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.08 n/a
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points -11.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.60 -4.88%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.72 -1.24%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.06 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 28.0 basis points -15.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 116.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .82 -5.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 +.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.5% +15.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 64.0 euros/megawatt-hour -11.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 76.6 +7.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.2 -4.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.79 -.22:  Growth Rate +11.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 16.8 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.39 +13.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -67.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.91% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 61.4%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 42.0%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 119 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.8%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -69.9%(+4.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +193 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my commodity/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -2.7% 2) Software -1.3% 3) Healthcare Providers -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TGTX, FRO, STNG and GE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BHC 2) BBBY 3) GERN 4) EWC 5) DLR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VERA 2) CACC 3) PHAT 4) SEER 5) FIZZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +5.6% 2) Gambling +5.0% 3) Gold & Silver +3.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DCPH, SI, CHRS, PLL, HAYW, COLL, FATE, STAA, ARHS, WYNN, SGH, OI, BMRN, PTEN, ORMP, FAF, ASPN, TNRO, AM, SIL, TSLA, AMPL, CRM, IDCC, USM, KDNY, SYNH, PPL, FSK, UMH and OFIX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GERN 2) BKLN 3) BHC 4) RITM 5) BBWI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GERN 2) DCPH 3) SSYS 4) AMV 5) PDD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 83.3% of Issues Advancing, 14.4% Declining
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 40.2%(+4.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.4 -.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 13,899.1 -.88%
  
• Vix 22.5 -1.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.04 +6.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 -25.4% 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Australia Braces for Supply Chain Hit From China Covid Surge.
• A Record Number of 'Foreign Objects' Are Being Left Inside UK Patients.
• Asia Stocks Mixed, Treasuries Steady After Rally: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Steadies After Tumbling on Worsening Demand Outlook.
• Fed Minutes to Reveal Source of Inflation Angst Pushing Up Rates.  
• The 10 US Lawmakers You Need to Know About in 2023.
• US Recession Is ‘Pretty Likely,’ Ex-New York Fed Chief Dudley Says.  
• Two Men Arrested for Attacks on Washington State Power Grid.  
• Bankman-Fried Pleads Not Guilty, Faces Trial in October.    
• Einhorn’s Fund Climbed 36.6% Last Year, Recouping Losses That Began in 2015.
• D.E. Shaw’s Biggest Hedge Funds Soared at Least 20% in 2022.   
• Bets on Stock Rally Explode After an Odd Year in Options Trading.   
• Investing Novices Are Calling the Shots for $4 Trillion at US Pensions.  
• Damar Hamlin Fundraiser Tops $4 Million With Gifts From Giuliani, Pro Wrestler Jericho.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hamlin Remains in Critical Condition as NFL Says Game Won’t Resume This Week.
• GOP Struggles to Select Speaker, Exposing Deep Fractures Within Party.
• Abortion Pills to Be Available More Widely Under New FDA Rules.
• Saudi Prince Tangles With Sovereign Wealth Fund Over How to Invest Oil Riches.
• Two Years to Fortify American Elections. The goal is to fix voting snafus before 2024. Yes, you, Pennsylvania.
• Southwest Airlines Offers 25,000 Points to Passengers Hit by Travel Meltdown. 
• Biden’s Food Stamp Trickery. The USDA pushed an increase of $200 billion over 10 years without Congressional review. 
• Tech Layoffs Are Happening Faster Than at Any Time During the Pandemic.
• Exxon, Chevron Focus on Oil Projects in the Americas.

Fox News:

• SEE IT:Florida Republican stuns House floor by changing speaker vote.

CNBC.com:

• Regulators warn U.S. banks on crypto risks including ‘fraud and scams’ after FTX collapse.
• Apple’s market cap falls under $2 trillion as sell-off continues.
• Apple and Amazon lost a ‘staggering’ $800 billion in market cap in 2022. Here’s what that looks like.
• Apple hikes the price of iPhone battery replacements by $20.
• Some supply chain managers are wary of shifting trade back to West Coast ports.

MarketWatch:        

• What does the stock market’s rocky 2023 start mean for the rest of the year?  
• Almost 80% of Americans think the U.S. will experience great economic difficulty in 20.    
  
• Uber, DoorDash and Lyft could see hundreds of thousands of new gig workers because of recession, analysts say.

Zero Hedge:

• Twitter Files: US State Department Panicked Over ZeroHedge Covid-19 Reporting. 
• "Take Them To The Slaughterhouse": Trustee Calls For "Culling" DEI Critics.
• McCarthy Loses Three Times As House Adjourns With No Speaker.
• Sam Bankman-Fried Pleads Not Guilty.
• Florida Keys Hit With "Mass Migrant Crisis" After Boat Landings Surge From Caribbean.
• The Friction Ahead In 2023.
• Incoming Israeli Foreign Minister Shocks By Previewing Pro-Russian Policies.
• The Bahamas Lawyers Up As The FTX Case Proceeds In US Court And Disagreements Fester.
• Maine School Secretly Gender-Transitioned 13-Year-Old Girl.
• The pillar is shaking.
• St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession.
• NY Times Op-Ed: 'Mate With Short People To Stop Climate Change'.
• The dollar comeback.
• US stocks ultimately sold off to start the new year albeit closed off the lows - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Twitter Files: Why Twitter Let The Intelligence Community In.
• CBOE Explains How Early-Exercise Order-Flow Distorts Equity Put/Call Ratios.
• 11 Ominous Predictions For 2023.
• New Year starts with a stock slide and dollar drive - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Biden Bear Market Enters Year Two, Gold Hits 6-Month High.

Newsmax:

• McConnell: 'I'm Just Pulling' for McCarthy Speakership.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WHAT ARE THEY HIDING? Jan 6 Committee Sealed All Important VIDEOS and Documents for 50 Years – So They Can Continue to Lie About J-6 Protests and Fed Involvement.
• NEW: Second Twitter Files Drop of the Day Includes Adam Schiff Seeking Ban of Journalist Paul Sperry.
• BREAKING: Kevin McCarthy LOSES THIRD VOTE For Speaker of House! – Jim Jordan Picks Up 20 Votes …UPDATE: House Adjourned Until Noon Tomorrow.
• “It’s a Giant State and There’s a Lot of Money” – Joe Biden When Asked About His Trip to Kentucky to Celebrate Infrastructure Bill with McConnell (VIDEO).
• VILE: Texas RINO Dan Crenshaw Declares McCarthy GOP Hold-Outs “NARCISSISTS” and His “ENEMIES” (VIDEO).
• JIM JORDAN Continues to Gain Votes – Is the OBVIOUS CHOICE for GOP House Speaker!
• JUST IN: Another Twitter Files Drop: How Twitter Let the Intelligence Community In.
• Wellness Company Headed by Dr. Peter McCullough Requests to Release Damar Hamlin’s Vaccine Status as Part of Any Investigation into this Tragedy.
• Japanese Doctors Investigate the Link Between Covid Vaccine and Deaths.
• UPDATE 6: Fed Operatives Move into Place at Cincinnati Hospital Where Damar Hamlin is a Patient – NO NFL PLAYER HAS DIED FROM ON-FIELD INJURY IN OVER 50 YEARS.
• Never Forget: Liz Cheney Increased Her Wealth by $36 Million After Serving Just 6.5 Years in Congress.

The Epoch Times:  

• China Could Claim Parts of Moon as Own Territory, Force Out US Astronauts, NASA Boss Warns.

Twitter: 

• @Rasmussen_Poll - Here is something you can do to change the world: 1. Hit retweet on this story. 2. Select quote tweet. 3. Tag your representative, senator and favorite news media personality. 4. Tell your followers to do the same thing.
• @mtaibbi - 1.THREAD: The Twitter Files How Twitter Let the Intelligence Community In.
• @CameronWolfe - Just spoke with Dorrian Glenn — Damar Hamlin’s uncle — who said his nephew is on a ventilator but he’s improved to 50% oxygen needed after being at 100%. He’s still sedated but main focus is recovering to breathe on his own & healing lungs.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 915,411 Reports(+3,337 from prior week) Through December 23rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.75 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.25 -2.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  54.3 +1.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.50 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.1 +.07%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (RGP)/.50
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to fall to 48.5 versus 49.0 in Nov.
• ISM Prices Paid for Dec. is estimated to fall to 42.9 versus 43.0 in Nov.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Nov. is estimated to fall to 10024K versus 10334K in Oct.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Dec. 14 FOMC Minutes release.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 13.4M versus 14.14M in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Import Price report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly US retail sales reports and CES 2023 could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.