Monday, November 15, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,181.22 -.25%
NASDAQ 2,086.67 +.07%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.05%
Homebuilders +2.24%
Networking +1.80%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -1.31%
Energy -2.30%
Oil Service -3.07%

Other
Crude Oil 45.65 -3.53
Natural Gas 7.12 -.78%
Gold 437.30 -.23%
Base Metals 118.03 -.23%
U.S. Dollar 84.07 +.45%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% +.37%
VIX 13.59 +1.95%
Put/Call .50 -33.33%
NYSE Arms .89 +7.23%

Market Movers
RHAT +14.9% on First Albany upgrade to Buy.
TASR +4.3% after saying that TASER technology was approved for trials by the South Korean National Police Agency and a successful presentation last week in Johannesburg, South Africa.
BOOM +51.4% on continuing optimism over 4Q outlook.
NYNY +23.8% after saying it agreed to buy the Concord and Grossinger's to develop American Indian casinos and hotels.
WLS +21.5% after announcing an increase in stock buyback program to 3M shares.
DWSN +20.8% on Raymond James upgrade to Outperform.
PIXR +4.8% after it movie "The Incredibles" remained the top movie at U.S. and Canadian theaters this weekend.
INCX +13.0% after announcing the appointment of George Kellerman, formerly with Yahoo! Japan, as senior vp of business development.
BKS -29.7% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
*Oil Service stocks down across the board on crude decline.

Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for November rose to 19.76 versus estimates of 20.6 and a reading of 17.43 in October.

Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KRB, DIS, FSH and AET. Goldman reiterated Underperform on UNM and CI. Goldman upgraded ABX to Outperform.
-Citi SmithBarney said to Buy MATK on weakness, target $70. Citi reiterated Buy on TYC, target $40. Citi reiterated Sell on MYG, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on NT, target $5. Citi reiterated Buy on HAL, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on WMT, target $65.
-CSFB downgraded CAG and HNZ to Underperform. CSFB raised ADM to Outperform, target $25.
-Morgan Stanley raised NNDS to Overweight, target $34.50.
-Legg Mason raised RKY to Buy, target $86.
-Banc of America raised MHS to Buy, target $45. BofA rated TXRH Buy, target $28.
-Raymond James raised DWSN to Outperform, target $35.
-Bear Stearns rated GS Outperform. Bear downgraded TS to Underperform.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly mixed today as optimism over falling energy prices is being offset by profit-taking. Warner Brothers film studio made some bets with films such as "Polar Express" that may prove to be costly given the movie's weak box-office results over the weekend, the NY Times reported. Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. agreed to buy the Altoids mints and Life Savers business from Kraft Foods for almost $1.5 billion to gain a greater share of the candy market, the Wall Street Journal reported. Iran will suspend uranium enrichment-related activities starting Nov. 22, Agence France-Presse reported. Passengers of some of the largest U.S. airlines are facing longer wait times between connecting flights as carriers try to cut cost, USA Today reported. U.S. officials began taking fingerprints and photographs of some visitors today at three border crossings with Canada and Mexico in a bid to boost security, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell announced his resignation, according to Fox News. General Electric agreed to buy SPX Corp.'s Edwards Systems Technology business for about $1.4 billion in cash to add fire detection and building safety systems to its three-year-old security systems unit, Bloomberg reported. Merck CEO Gilmartin said the drugmaker acted appropriately in pulling the Vioxx painkiller from the market, and he has no intention of resigning his position, Bloomberg said. Sun Micro will give away its newest operating system to generate more sales from service contracts, Bloomberg said. Saddam Hussein pocketed as much as $21.3 billion under United Nations sanctions designed to isolate the dictator before the U.S.-led liberation of Iraq. The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations said Hussein's take included $17.3 billion in money from the UN oil-for-food program, Bloomberg reported. American Express said it sued Visa and MasterCard for imposing rules, later overturned by the courts, that barred thousands of banks from issuing its credit card, Bloomberg said. Crude oil is falling to the lowest in almost two months after Iran, OPEC's second-biggest oil producer, said it would stop enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons, to ward off U.S. calls for sanctions, Bloomberg said.

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my security, Chinese ADR and Indian ADR longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive today. However, measures of investor anxiety are at levels normally associated with a period of consolidation after recent outsized gains. A rotation out of energy stocks and into technology shares will likely continue in the intermediate-term. I expect U.S. stocks to trade mixed-to-weaker into the afternoon.

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