Thursday, January 25, 2007

Stocks Finish Lower on Profit-taking and Rising Long-Term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,423.90 -1.13%
DJIA 12,502.56 -.94%
NASDAQ 2,434.24 -1.30%
Russell 2000 784.19 -1.24%
Wilshire 5000 14,299.17 -1.10%
Russell 1000 Growth 561.80 -1.09%
Russell 1000 Value 817.54 -1.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 705.22 -.89%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 917.13 -.72%
Morgan Stanley Technology 559.54 -.79%
Transports 4,754.86 -1.39%
Utilities 450.62 -.59%
Put/Call 1.20 +44.58%
NYSE Arms .85 +12.68%
Volatility(VIX) 11.22 +13.45%
ISE Sentiment 103.00 -9.65%
US Dollar 85.09 +.19%
CRB 293.49 -.88%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.31 -1.91%
Reformulated Gasoline 145.10 -.73%
Natural Gas 6.85 -7.75%
Heating Oil 155.34 -1.93%
Gold 652.00 -.38%
Base Metals 235.85 +.60%
Copper 263.60 +1.33%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.87% +1.36%

Leading Sectors
Steel +1.21%
REITs +.64%
Semis -.56%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -2.27%
Oil Service -2.56%
I-Banks -2.68%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bear Stearns:
- Rated (CNH) Outperform.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Natural gas plunged over 7% in NY as record-high inventories for this time of the year caught up with massive speculation by investment funds on the commodity.
- Crude oil fell over $1/bbl. after Energy Secretary Bodman said the US tariff on ethanol imports will probably need to be lifted to meet President Bush’s goal of increasing the use of renewable fuels.
- Amgen Inc.(AMGN) said fourth-quarter profit rose 1% as research spending climbed faster than sales of its anemia and cancer drugs.
- General Motors(GM) said it will delay filing fourth-quarter and 2006 results because it has to restate earlier financial reports.
- Microsoft’s(MSFT) second-quarter earnings fell less than analysts predicted after the world’s largest software maker sold more Xbox video games and database programs. The company raised its profit forecast for this year.
- US treasuries fell, pushing yields to the highest level since August, as an industry report showed housing inventories continue to fall.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, plans to begin shipments of ethanol to Nigeria in February, part of the African nation’s plan to add the sugar-based fuel to gasoline.
- WFR, IRF and VSEA are semiconductor companies that are trading substantially higher in after-hours trading on positive earnings reports.

CNBC:
- Georgia Gulf Corp.(GGC), Gateway Inc. and 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. may see their share prices more than double during the next year, Arne Alsin, the founder of Alsin Capital Management.
- Some Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) shareholders think the $90 per share price offered for the company by Apollo Management LP and Texas Pacific Group is too low.

Cnet’s News.com:
- Google is again buying Intel Corp.(INTC) chips to run server computers after the search engine switched to processors from Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) last year.

Miami Herald:
- The number of Venezuelans seeking asylum in the US has risen since President Hugo Chavez came to power in the South American nation, citing the US Office of Immigration Statistics.

Financial Times:
- China’s President Hu Jintao said he wants to “purify the Internet environment” and called for officials to step up efforts to control online activity.

AP:
- NYC may wrap its free condoms in a subway-themed design to boost safe sex and reduce the number of HIV/AIDS cases, citing Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Internet longs, Medical longs and I-banking longs. I added IWM/QQQQ hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector declined and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. Today's selling felt forced to me. While most sectors declined, many small-to-mid-cap stocks were higher beneath the surface. The U.S. Dollar and 10-year yield are near session highs on more economic optimism after housing inventories fell again. Oil is near session lows, after a 7% plunge in natural gas as record inventories for this time of the year are catching up with the massive speculation that has been propping up prices. I sense that a very large percentage of investors are down for the year after underperforming last year. This, combined with confusion over economic readings, is leading to increased volatility in the major averages. I continue to believe the next meaningful move is higher for stocks.

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