Monday, January 22, 2007

Stocks Finish Lower on Weakness in Cyclicals

Indices
S&P 500 1,422.95 -.53%
DJIA 12,477.16 -.70%
NASDAQ 2,431.07 -.83%
Russell 2000 777.96 -.92%
Wilshire 5000 14,271.25 -.54%
Russell 1000 Growth 561.27 -.69%
Russell 1000 Value 816.38 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 708.22 -.49%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 911.69 -1.11%
Morgan Stanley Technology 558.09 -.92%
Transports 4,812.85 -.96%
Utilities 447.39 -.16%
Put/Call .95 +15.85%
NYSE Arms 1.31 +37.37%
Volatility(VIX) 10.77 +3.56%
ISE Sentiment 116.0 -33.71%
US Dollar 85.05 +.22%
CRB 289.98 -.17%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 52.63 -1.44%
Reformulated Gasoline 137.94 -1.33%
Natural Gas 7.33 +6.45%
Heating Oil 151.14 -.14%
Gold 632.60 -.60%
Base Metals 224.91 +1.85%
Copper 252.25 -.22%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.76% -.38%

Leading Sectors
Alternative Energy +.41%
Foods +.25%
Gaming +.03%

Lagging Sectors
Papers -1.10%
HMOs -1.13%
Airlines -2.03%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Rated (ACN) Outperform, target $44.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said fourth-quarter profit rose 2%. The stock is rising 3% after-hours.
- American Express(AXP) said profit surged 23% as defaults declined and holiday spending by cardmembers reached a record. The stock finished little changed.
- Angelo Haligiannis, the fugitive hedge-fund manager who defrauded investors in Sterling Watters Group LP, was ordered by a federal court to pay more than $30.6 million in fines and forfeited profit.
- The mild weather that blanketed most of the northern US during the first two months of the heating season will return next month, setting up a warmer-than-normal end to winter, forecasters at WSI Corp. said.
- US gasoline at the pump fell 6.4 cents to a nationwide average of $2.16/gallon the week ended today, the lowest price since Dec. 5, 2005, a government report showed.
- Gap Inc.(GPS) CEO Paul Pressler resigned form the largest US clothing chain after failing to bring the company’s stock back to its historic highs.
- Microsoft’s(MSFT) Zune music and video player, intended as a rival to Apple’s(AAPL) market-dominating iPod, can’t share some songs, potentially eroding a key advantage over iPod.

Nikkei English News:
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Japan’s biggest heavy-machinery maker, will produce motors and lithium-ion batteries to power electric and hybrid cars.

AP:
- Chinese officials in Beijing assured a visiting US envoy that a test of an anti-satellite weapon should not be viewed as a threat, citing State Dept. spokesman Sean McCormack.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Computer longs, Retail longs and Internet longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. With all the talk of how bad things are by the many bears, the major averages are all higher year to date, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which is down only 1%. An ABCNews.com report that raised terrorism concerns was likely the reason for the slight dip over the last hour of trading. Oil is near session lows, falling another .70 after an early morning spike higher, however natural gas is surging 6.5% today on "cold weather" despite the fact that inventories are now 85% of their pre-season capacity vs. usual levels of 60% at this time of the year. Essentially full natural gas storage is even more likely this year. After some more early morning weakness, I expect to see US stocks rally modestly tomorrow afternoon.

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