Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Stocks Finish Lower on Tech Share Weakness and Bounce in Oil

Indices
S&P 500 1,430.62 -.09%
DJIA 12,577.15 -.04%
NASDAQ 2,479.42 -.74%
Russell 2000 788.77 -.34%
Wilshire 5000 14,357.15 -.10%
Russell 1000 Growth 567.75 -.24%
Russell 1000 Value 816.11 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 708.99 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 913.97 +.13%
Morgan Stanley Technology 575.62 -.95%
Transports 4,813.62 -.99%
Utilities 446.71 +.11%
Put/Call .86 -7.53%
NYSE Arms .90 -14.90%
Volatility(VIX) 10.61 -1.40%
ISE Sentiment 116.0 -33.71%
US Dollar 84.97 -.11%
CRB 289.09 +.65%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 52.14 +1.82%
Reformulated Gasoline 137.80 +.64%
Natural Gas 6.25 -5.77%
Heating Oil 149.91 +1.27%
Gold 632.90 +1.12%
Base Metals 220.18 -1.57%
Copper 256.50 -.48%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% +.68%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.56%
Energy +1.19%
Homebuilders +1.08%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.60%
Networking -1.95%
Airlines -3.57%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
UBS:
- Made positive comments on (INTC), believes the stock represents good value at current levels.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) said first-quarter profit soared 78% after holiday shoppers snapped up iPod music players in record numbers and Macintosh computers. Net income rose to $1.14 versus analysts’ consensus estimates of .78.
- The perceived risk of owning the bonds of US homebuilders fell to the lowest in at least eight months on speculation that a growing economy will offset a rise in the supply of unsold homes, according to traders who bet on corporate creditworthiness in the credit-default swap market.
- Natural gas plunged 6% today. Natural gas prices have “melted in the winter sun” and won’t recover because inventories are much higher than usual, according to UniCredit economists.
- Fewer people died of cancer in the US in 2004, the second year in a row that the death rate for the disease has dropped, the American Cancer Society reported.
- Merrill Lynch(MER) CEO Stanley O’Neal is making acquisitions at the fastest pace in more than a decade to catch up with Goldman Sachs Group(GS).

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Airline longs, Internet longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly negative today as the advance/decline line finished mildly lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Today's overall market action was slightly bearish. Weakness was mainly contained to select large-cap tech and airline stocks. Energy-related stocks outperformed throughout the day on a slight bounce in oil prices, despite a 6.5% plunge in natural gas. It appears to me that money is sloshing around from one "hot commodity" to the next, however the bear market remains firmly in tact, despite the many calls for a bottom. The Nasdaq is still 2.7% higher ytd despite, which is a very strong showing to start the year. I plan to add to my Apple (AAPL) long on any substantial weakness related to the conservative guidance this evening. The NAHB Homebuilding Index rose to 35 this month vs. estimates of 33 and 33 in December. The Sales Expectations component remained at 49. However, the Index of Buyer Traffic rose to 26 from 23 and Current Sales component rose to 36 from 33. I suspect this will lead to another move higher in the Case-Schiller May Housing Price futures. Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy is accelerating modestly and nowhere near recessionary levels.

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