Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Bounce in Oil and Tech Stock Earnings Jitters

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Airline longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is above average. Why are so many pundits and traders attacking Apple (AAPL)? It is a great American "growth" story that has the potential to turn the bearish herd bullish on U.S. stocks, specifically "growth" stocks. The hordes of newly minted "value" short-sellers, since 2000, can't allow that. Their business models depend on it. Apple, along with Google (GOOG) and several others, has the ability to help propel the Nasdaq substantially higher this year, which would result in the "mother of all short-covering rallies." This is why the attacks on these companies are so vigorous, notwithstanding the fact that most of the attackers aren't even short the stocks. Anyone can pick apart any company at any time. Being able to see the big picture is the key to serious long-term gains, in my opinion. In today's short-term trading oriented environment, I see the "noise" preventing many from capitalizing on substantial long-term opportunities. The bears have been stunningly wrong on Apple for a long time. I see no reason why they will be proven right now. Nobody is even talking about the Mac. I suspect that will change after this evening's report. I expect Apple to rise 50% this year from current levels, notwithstanding any short-term weakness related to conservative guidance. Apple(AAPL) remains my second largest long position behind Google(GOOG). I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism and bargain-hunting.

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