Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Stocks Surging into Final Hour as Tech Sector Index Approaches 7-year High and Financials Jump

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is positive today as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is positive and volume is about average. The I-bankers are jumping 3% on news that Warren Buffett may take a stake in Bear Stearns(BSC). Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) opened weaker, but I wouldn't read too much into that considering their recent explosion higher and relatively low correlation with the S&P 500. Google is now 23% higher and Apple 79% higher year-to-date. These two remain my largest long positions, just ahead of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), which is 140% higher for the year. I remain very long-term bullish on all three. AppleInsider is reporting today that Apple (AAPL) may release a new PDA device by the middle of next year. Apple is selling off slightly today after its recent strong run. I think it still isn't too late for longer-term investors to build positions in Apple on pullbacks. As with Google (GOOG), I think the stock can grow at a relatively high rate for much longer than many investors expect. I think the stock also will see multiple expansion as it continues to beat estimates, growth-stock outperformance continues and interest rates remain low. The Morgan Stanley Tech Index is making a 52-week high today. It is now at the highest level since February 2001. It is up 17.8% for the year and 25.3% higher over the last 12 months. This is a huge story that is mostly ignored in favor of 24/7 coverage of the "housing depression." I think that the fundamentals and technicals are in place for tech's outperformance to continue over the intermediate term. The NYSE Arms has been above average most of the day, despite gains in the major averages, which is a positive. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, strength in the financial sector and investment manager performance anxiety.

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