Monday, September 24, 2007

Stocks Finish Lower on Profit-taking Ahead of Housing Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,517.73 -.53%
DJIA 13,759.06 -.44%
NASDAQ 2,667.95 -.12%
Russell 2000 805.80 -.90%
Wilshire 5000 15,219.84 -.53%
Russell 1000 Growth 612.39 -.29%
Russell 1000 Value 847.57 -.74%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 738.25 -.38%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,049.28 -.61%
Morgan Stanley Technology 658.39 +.17%
Transports 4,767.75 -1.23%
Utilities 509.16 +.18%
MSCI Emerging Markets 146.67 +1.42%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .91 +5.81%
NYSE Arms 1.19 +42.45%
Volatility(VIX) 19.37 +1.95%
ISE Sentiment 133.0 -17.90%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 80.56 -1.30%
Reformulated Gasoline 207.35 -1.94%
Natural Gas 6.38 +4.93%
Heating Oil 222.39 -1.43%
Gold 737.80 -.16%
Base Metals 248.54 +.42%
Copper 364.20 +1.38%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.62% unch.
US Dollar 78.54 -.07%
CRB Index 333.75 +.18%

Leading Sectors
REITs +1.53%
Gaming +1.21%
Computer Hardware +.30%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -2.49%
Networking -2.55%
Airlines -5.41%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:

- Rated (EMC) Buy, target $24.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- In its ongoing effort to curb foreclosures, Countrywide Financial(CFC) is actively working with borrowers who are experiencing financial challenges.
- Lowe’s Cos.(LOW) said earnings this year may be below its prior estimate because a drought slowed sales of patio furniture and plants.
The stock fell 5.8% in after-hours trading.
- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the Palestinian people are paying for the Holocaust with the violence in the Middle East and asked why varying views of the genocide aren’t allowed to be expressed.
- Protesters at Columbia University demonstrated against a speech by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad scheduled for this afternoon.
-
ValueClick Inc.(VCLK), the second-biggest US Internet advertising broker, rose as much as 10% in Nasdaq Stock Market trading on speculation the company may be bought.

Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), lagging behind Google Inc.(GOOG) in the online ad market, is in talks to purchase a stake of as much as 5% in social-networking site Facebook Inc.

Boston Globe:
- Boston asset manager MFS Investment Management today said it is entering the alternative investments business with a new subsidiary that will provide seed and expansion capital to emerging hedge fund managers.

Nikkei English News:
- Toyota Motor(TM) plans to offer an ultracompact car for the European market around 2009 as emissions rules boost demand for small, fuel-efficient vehicles.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Internet longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were above-average into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bearish. Meaningful weakness was mainly confined to the homebuilders, airlines and financials. The homebuilding index looks poised to take out its recent lows. While I don't see significant downside risk in this sector from current levels, I would continue to avoid it over the intermediate-term. I suspect financials have see their lows, but I doubt they will be any better than market performers over the intermediate-term. On the positive side, the bears were unable to gain any downside traction today despite the market's huge run over the last two weeks. The Vix is back near 20. The NYSE Arms was above-average most of the afternoon, as well. This remains one of the best markets I can remember for true stock-pickers, which could be attributed to the explosion in popularity of ETFs and technical analysis. Many growth stocks rose today, not just the leaders. My monitor pages are filled with several hundred names putting in meaningful upside today. A number of sectors also rose: the gaming, REIT, HMO, wireless, computer hardware, software, steel, alternative energy and utility sectors all posted gains, notwithstanding losses in the major averages. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line is now back above its 200-day moving average. I still believe way too many bulls are underinvested and many bears are too short, given the recent change in the macro backdrop and psychology. Thus, I continue to expect any near-term market weakness to remain muted and short-lived. Given ongoing earnings jitters, I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P 500 make a new all-time high as earnings season commences in earnest.

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