- Consumer Confidence for September fell to 99.8 versus estimates of 104.3 and an upwardly revised 105.6 in August.
- Existing Home Sales for August fell to 5.5M versus estimates of 5.48M and 5.75M in July.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumer confidence fell more than forecast in September, Bloomberg reported. The Present Situation component of the index fell to 121.7 from 130.1, but remains relatively high. The Expectations component fell to 85.2 from 89.2 in August. The price of regular unleaded gasoline, which reached as high as $3.05 a gallon in July, slid to $2.81 as of yesterday. The main reason consumer confidence came in below estimates was due to the huge drop in the New England region from 105.4 to 79.7. Confidence actually soared in the Southeast Central region from 101.60 to 121.0 and rose in the Mid-Atlantic, Northwest Central and Southwest Central regions. I continue to believe both main gauges of consumer sentiment will move back near cycle highs over the intermediate-term as stocks hit new record highs, interest rates remain low, inflation decelerates further, energy prices fall meaningfully, housing fears subside, wages continue to substantially outpace inflation and unemployment remains historically low.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell in August, Bloomberg reported. However, the median home price rose .2% to $224,500. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 3.9% year-over-year in July, however this index is still 98.4% higher from when the stock market bubble burst in 2000. Supplies of existing homes, at the current sales pace, came in at 10 months’ worth versus 9.5 months in July. I continue to believe home sales are in the process of stabilizing at lower, but still high by historic standards, levels. Home construction will remain muted over the intermediate-term as homebuilders work down inventories.
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