Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower on Rising Apprehension Ahead of Fed

Indices
S&P 500 1,471.56 unch.
DJIA 13,291.65 -.13%
NASDAQ 2,592.07 -.21%
Russell 2000 777.90 -.56%
Wilshire 5000 14,765.77 -.04%
Russell 1000 Growth 594.09 -.09%
Russell 1000 Value 822.07 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 713.42 +.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 996.76 -.50%
Morgan Stanley Technology 642.46 -.14%
Transports 4,737.86 -.76%
Utilities 493.24 +.23%
MSCI Emerging Markets 135.03 +.24%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .85 -16.67%
NYSE Arms .82 +68.29%
Volatility(VIX) 24.96 -1.23%
ISE Sentiment 133.0 +23.15%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 79.71 +1.89%
Reformulated Gasoline 201.25 +1.58%
Natural Gas 6.43 +8.32%
Heating Oil 221.48 +1.47%
Gold 720.80 -.04%
Base Metals 230.14 +.25%
Copper 336.0 -.81%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.40% +4 basis points
US Dollar 79.37 -.42%
CRB Index 321.19 +1.33%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +1.57%
HMOs +1.32%
Engineering & Construction +1.11%

Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -1.41%
Semis -2.32%
Airlines -2.75%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:

- Rated (ATHR) and (BRCM) Buy.

Citigroup:
- Rated (LEA) Buy, target $39.
- Rated (GM) Buy, target $41.
- Rated (TEN) Sell, target $27.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US and European asset-backed commercial paper market is showing signs of improving following a month-long slide, according to traders and issuers who met today.
- Total assets of US money market mutual funds rose to another all-time high of $2.78 trillion this week.
- Steven Freiberg, head of Citigroup’s(C) North America consumer business, said the company’s sub-prime loan loss rate declined in the second quarter because it underwrites and collects its own loans.
- AmeriCredit Corp.(ACF), which lends to car buyers with poor credit histories, rose almost 10% on the NYSE after it priced $1 billion in asset-backed securities, including sub-prime car loans.

- Overnight yields on US asset-backed commercial paper market fell by the most in almost three years today as Moody’s Investors Service said bank issuers will be able to “ride out” the disruption in credit markets.
- Sugar fell after Brazil said output will rise more than expected this year, widening a global surplus, and as investors speculated demand for cane-based ethanol is declining.
- Copper fell after workers called off a strike in Peru, easing concern that labor unrest would cut mine production.
- Crude oil rose to a record $80.18 a barrel in NY after supplies fell from multi-year highs and refiners unexpectedly cut production.
- McDonald’s, the world’s largest restaurant company, boosted its annual dividend by 50% after coming under pressure from activist investor William Ackman to increase returns for shareholders.

CNNMoney.com:
- Google sites topped the July comScore Video Metrix rankings, with 27% online video market share.

CNBC:
- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. said he eventually sees the federal funds rate “somewhere in the 3% categoary.”

Daily Mail:
- Cadbury Trebor Basset and Mars Inc. said they will remove artificial additives from sweets, including Skittles and M&Ms, after research found harmful effects in children.

Nikkei English News:
- Japan’s government will cut is view of the general economy for the first time in 10 months, while maintaining its assessment that a broader recovery is expected to continue.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Retail longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished mildly lower, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above-average into the close. Today's overall market action was slightly bearish. There was some late-day selling in semis that appeared to help pressure the broad market. The 10-year yield bounced 3 basis points, however, the U.S. dollar finished another 0.42% lower, and cyclicals and small-caps underperformed, which are signs that investors are still worrying about growth slowing too much, notwithstanding Fed rate cuts. Oil is near $80 per barrel, however, it is interesting to note that the much-loved oil service sector barely rose today. I suspect another low-volume consolidation day is likely again tomorrow ahead of Friday’s economic data, next week’s earnings reports and the Fed meeting.

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